arXiv subjects

Emma R. Beasor

Publications and source records attributed to Emma R. Beasor.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A JWST/MIRI Study of Dust in a Sample of Normal Type IIP Core Collapse Supernovae

Core collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are invoked as major dust producers in the early Universe, yet the amount of dust they form, the timescale over which it grows, and the physical conditions that regulate the yield remain uncertain. We present a detailed JWST/MIRI mid-infrared (MIR) imaging census of 11 nearby Type IIP CCSNe spanning $\sim$1-7 yr after explosion, investigating dust emission across the different phases of their evolution. The spectral energy distributions show a coherent evolution from hot ($\sim$1500 K), 5-8 $μ$m emission at $\sim$400 d to prominent 10 and 18 $μ$m emission features at later epochs ($\sim$600-2500 d). The cool dust temperatures range from $\sim120$ to $250$ K and dust masses from $\sim10^{-4}$ to $10^{-2} M_{\odot}$. The current sample shows no statistically significant correlation between measured dust mass and peak luminosity, plateau duration, or explosion energy. SNe with early high ionization features, indicative of confined CSM, are often among the dust-rich objects in the sample. The measured 1-7 yr dust yields are insufficient to account for dust in typical $z > 6$ galaxies, but support a role for CCSNe as producers of seed dust for subsequent grain growth.

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arXiv2026

First Results from the LSST Shadow Survey: The Restless Luminous Blue Variable AT2017des in the Virgo-Cluster Galaxy, NGC4532

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start in late-summer 2026, revolutionizing transient astronomy. Here, we present the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) Shadow Survey, which is designed to maximize the science potential of LSST by shadowing LSST observations of local galaxy-cluster fields, producing a nightly cadence of these fields. The Shadow Survey will discover extremely young supernovae (SNe), SN precursors, as well as other explosive transients and exotic phenomena, helping to characterize such transients at unprecedented cadence and depth when combined with LSST. We describe our workflow, pipeline, public data releases, and candidate vetting. As an early result of Shadow, we present the fitful luminous blue variable (LBV) eruptions of AT2017des in the Virgo-Cluster galaxy NGC4532. AT2017des has short-timescale variability (of order 10 days), peaking at around $M_r=-12.5$mag, brighter than normal LBVs, and similar to the more extreme flaring of hot LBVs/SN impostors such as SN2000ch, AT2016blu, and the precursor activity of SN2009ip. Our spectral time-series reveals features typical of these hot LBVs and SN impostors/precursors. Combining our data with long-baseline photometry from additional observatories, we find that the peaks of the outbursts of AT2017des are getting brighter over time, with 2026 peak fluxes being up to 5 times greater than in 2023 and an average brightening of $\sim0.05$ mag yr$^{-1}$. The peaks of AT2017des are more luminous than those of most other LBVs, only being fainter than bright precursors such as SN2009ip, and extreme SN impostors such as AT2016blu. AT2017des may therefore be ``ramping up'' to a terminal explosion.

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arXiv2026

Multiwavelength Modeling of the Luminous Fast Blue Optical Transient AT2024wpp

Luminous fast blue optical transients (LFBOTs) are a growing class of enigmatic energetic transients. They show fast rises and declines, high temperatures throughout their evolution, and non-thermal emission in radio and X-rays. Their power source is currently unknown, but proposed models include engine-driven supernovae, interaction-powered supernovae, shock cooling emission, intermediate mass black hole tidal disruption events (IMBH TDEs), and Wolf-Rayet/black hole mergers, among others. AT2024wpp is the most optically luminous LFBOT to date and has been observed extensively at multiple wavelengths, including radio, optical, UV, and X-rays. We take models from multiple scenarios and fit them to the AT2024wpp optical, radio, and X-ray light curves to determine which of these scenarios can best describe all aspects of the data. We show that none of the multiwavelength light curve models can reasonably explain the data, and that other physical arguments disfavour models with homologously expanding ejecta. We discuss how a stellar mass/IMBH TDE of a low mass star can be tested with late-time observations, and what other scenarios could possibly explain the broadband data.

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arXiv2026

JWST spectroscopy of SN 2010da/NGC 300 ULX-1: a surviving star hidden by dust

We present new James Webb Space Telescope ($JWST$) NIRSpec and MIRI integral-field spectroscopy of the remarkable system SN~2010da / NGC~300 ULX-1, the only known ultraluminous X-ray source powered by a neutron star with a supergiant donor. Our new data, taken in November 2024, reveal that the optical and near-infrared counterpart has dramatically faded since 2018 and no longer exhibits molecular absorption features characteristic of a red supergiant. Instead, the spectral energy distribution shows the donor has returned to its pre-outburst appearance, and is dominated by infrared continuum consistent with an optically thick warm ($\approx$900~K) dust shell. The bolometric luminosity indicates the presence of a surviving luminous source with $\log(L/L_{\odot})=4.11\pm0.02$. Radiative transfer modelling of the mid-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) reveals a broad emission feature peaking near $\sim$11\,$μ$m, best reproduced by silicon carbide (SiC) dust grains, a composition typically associated with carbon-rich evolved stars. We rule out a failed supernova scenario, which would predict a large drop in luminosity and continued fading. Given the association of SiC dust with AGB stars, we suggest the donor star may be an AGB star that has survived and is now heavily enshrouded - having returned to a dust-obscured state following a transient post-outburst phase in which the system appeared as a red supergiant. We propose a revised evolutionary timeline in which the 2010 outburst initiated sustained super-Eddington accretion and temporarily altered the circumstellar environment. These observations provide rare insight into eruptive mass loss, dust formation, and binary interaction in a unique system.

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arXiv2026

The fate of the failed supernova candidate M31-2014-DS1

The fate of massive stars above 20M$_{\odot}$ remains uncertain. Debate persists about whether they die as supernovae (SNe), or if they collapse directly into black holes (BHs) with little or no optical outburst -- so-called ``failed supernovae''. The source M31-2014-DS1 experienced an optical outburst in 2014 and has remained faint at visual wavelengths since then. Due to its persistent faintness, it has been proposed as a failed SN candidate. We present new observations of this candidate obtained using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Submillimeter Array (SMA), and Chandra. The JWST observations demonstrate that a luminous mid-infrared source persists at the same location a decade after the star faded at visual wavelengths. We model its current spectral energy distribution (SED) as a dust-enshrouded star. No X-ray emission is detected, disfavoring the hypothesis that the late-time luminosity is powered by accretion onto a BH. We find that the remaining source is highly obscured by an asymmetric distribution of circumstellar dust, making it difficult to quantify its physical properties using spherically symmetric radiative transfer codes. The dust geometry requires that the inferred bolometric luminosity is only a lower limit, as a significant fraction of the central source's radiation may escape without being reprocessed by dust. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of failed SN models and consider the potential overlap with signatures expected from a stellar merger, which also seems to provide a plausible explanation of this source.

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arXiv2025

Mid-Infrared Dust Evolution and Late-time Circumstellar Medium Interaction in SN 2017eaw

We present JWST/MIRI and complementary ground-based near-infrared observations of the Type II SN 2017eaw taken 6 years post-explosion. SN 2017eaw is still detected out to 25 $μ$m and there is minimal evolution in the mid-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) between the newly acquired JWST/MIRI observations and those taken a year earlier. Modeling of the mid-infrared SED reveals a cool $\sim$160 K dust component of $5.5\times10^{-4}\ \mathrm{M}_\odot$ and a hot $\sim$1700 K component of $5.4\times10^{-8}\ \mathrm{M}_\odot$ both composed of silicate dust. Notably there is no evidence of temperature or mass evolution in the cool dust component in the year between JWST observations. We also present new and archival HST and ground-based ultraviolet (UV) and optical observations which reveal reduced but continued circumstellar medium (CSM)-ejecta interaction at $>$2000 days post-explosion. The UV and mid-infrared emission show similar decline rates, suggesting both probe the interface between the ejecta and CSM. Given this, the continued existence of boxy H$α$ emission in the nebular spectra, the low inferred optical depth of the dust, and the lack of temperature and mass evolution, we suggest that the cool dust component in SN 2017eaw may be primarily due to pre-existing dust rather than newly-formed dust in the ejecta or cold dense shell.

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arXiv2025

One Year of SN 2023ixf: Breaking Through the Degenerate Parameter Space in Light-Curve Models with Pulsating Progenitors

We present and analyze the extensive optical broadband photometry of the Type II SN 2023ixf up to one year after explosion. We find that, when compared to two pre-existing model grids, the bolometric light curve is consistent with drastically different combinations of progenitor and explosion properties. This may be an effect of known degeneracies in Type IIP light-curve models. We independently compute a large grid of $\texttt{MESA+STELLA}$ single-star progenitor and light-curve models with various zero-age main-sequence masses, mass-loss efficiencies, and convective efficiencies. Using the observed progenitor variability as an additional constraint, we select stellar models consistent with the pulsation period and explode them according to previously established scaling laws to match plateau properties. Our hydrodynamic modeling indicates that SN 2023ixf is most consistent with a moderate-energy ($E_{\rm exp}\approx7\times10^{50}$ erg) explosion of an initially high-mass red supergiant progenitor ($\gtrsim 16.5\ M_{\odot}$) that lost a significant amount of mass in its prior evolution, leaving a low-mass hydrogen envelope ($\lesssim 3\ M_{\odot}$) at the time of explosion, with a radius $\gtrsim 950\ R_{\odot}$ and a synthesized $^{56}$Ni mass of $\approx0.068\ M_{\odot}$. We posit that previous mass transfer in a binary system may have stripped the envelope of SN 2023ixf's progenitor. The analysis method with pulsation period presented in this work offers a way to break degeneracies in light-curve modeling in the future, particularly with the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, when a record of progenitor variability will be more common.

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arXiv2024

The red supergiant progenitor luminosity problem

Analysis of pre-explosion imaging has confirmed red supergiants (RSGs) as the progenitors to Type II-P supernovae (SNe). However, extracting the RSG's luminosity requires assumptions regarding the star's temperature or spectral type and the corresponding bolometric correction, circumstellar extinction, and possible variability. The robustness of these assumptions is difficult to test, since we cannot go back in time and obtain additional pre-explosion imaging. Here, we perform a simple test using the RSGs in M31, which have been well observed from optical to mid-IR. We ask the following: By treating each star as if we only had single-band photometry and making assumptions typically used in SN progenitor studies, what bolometric luminosity would we infer for each star? How close is this to the bolometric luminosity for that same star inferred from the full optical-to-IR spectral energy distribution (SED)? We find common assumptions adopted in progenitor studies systematically underestimate the bolometric luminosity by a factor of 2, typically leading to inferred progenitor masses that are systematically too low. Additionally, we find a much larger spread in luminosity derived from single-filter photometry compared to SED-derived luminosities, indicating uncertainties in progenitor luminosities are also underestimated. When these corrections and larger uncertainties are included in the analysis, even the most luminous known RSGs are not ruled out at the 3$σ$ level, indicating there is currently no statistically significant evidence that the most luminous RSGs are missing from the observed sample of II-P progenitors. The proposed correction also alleviates the problem of having progenitors with masses below the expected lower-mass bound for core-collapse.

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arXiv2024

JWST reveals a luminous infrared source at the position of the failed supernova candidate N6946-BH1

N6946-BH1 is the first plausible candidate for a failed supernova (SN), a peculiar event in which a massive star disappears without the expected bright SN, accompanied by collapse into a black hole (BH). Following a luminous outburst in 2009, the source experienced a significant decline in optical brightness, while maintaining a persistent infrared (IR) presence. While it was proposed to be a potential failed SN, such behavior has been observed in SN impostor events in nearby galaxies. Here, we present late-time observations of BH1, taken 14 years after disappearance, using JWST's NIRCam and MIRI instruments to probe a never-before-observed region of the object's spectral energy distribution. We show for the first time that all previous observations of BH1 (pre- and post-disappearance) are actually a blend of at least 3 sources. In the near-IR, BH1 is notably fainter than the progenitor but retains similar brightness to its state in 2017. In the mid-IR, the flux appears to have brightened compared to the inferred fluxes from the best-fitting progenitor model. The total luminosity of the source is between 13 - 25% that of the progenitor. We also show that the IR SED appears consistent with PAH features that arise when dust is illuminated by near-ultraviolet radiation. At present, the interpretation of N6946-BH1 remains uncertain. The observations match expectations for a stellar merger, but theoretical ambiguity in the failed SN hypothesis makes it hard to dismiss.

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arXiv2023

A Luminous Red Supergiant and Dusty Long-period Variable Progenitor for SN 2023ixf

We analyze pre-explosion near- and mid-infrared (IR) imaging of the site of SN 2023ixf in the nearby spiral galaxy M101 and characterize the candidate progenitor star. The star displays compelling evidence of variability with a possible period of $\approx$1000 days and an amplitude of $Δm \approx 0.6$ mag in extensive monitoring with the Spitzer Space Telescope since 2004, likely indicative of radial pulsations. Variability consistent with this period is also seen in the near-IR $J$ and $K_{s}$ bands between 2010 and 2023, up to just 10 days before the explosion. Beyond the periodic variability, we do not find evidence for any IR-bright pre-supernova outbursts in this time period. The IR brightness ($M_{K_s} = -10.7$ mag) and color ($J-K_{s} = 1.6$ mag) of the star suggest a luminous and dusty red supergiant. Modeling of the phase-averaged spectral energy distribution (SED) yields constraints on the stellar temperature ($T_{\mathrm{eff}} = 3500_{-1400}^{+800}$ K) and luminosity ($\log L/L_{\odot} = 5.1\pm0.2$). This places the candidate among the most luminous Type II supernova progenitors with direct imaging constraints, with the caveat that many of these rely only on optical measurements. Comparison with stellar evolution models gives an initial mass of $M_{\mathrm{init}} = 17\pm4 M_{\odot}$. We estimate the pre-supernova mass-loss rate of the star between 3 and 19 yr before explosion from the SED modeling at $\dot M \approx 3\times10^{-5}$ to $3\times10^{-4} M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$ for an assumed wind velocity of $v_w = 10$ km s$^{-1}$, perhaps pointing to enhanced mass loss in a pulsation-driven wind.

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arXiv2023

Don't believe the hype(r): The Yellow Supergiants of Westerlund 1

Yellow hypergiants (YHGs) are often presumed to represent a transitional post-red supergiant (RSG) phase for stars $\sim$30-40 \msun. Here we present visual-wavelength echelle spectra of six YHG candidates in the Galactic cluster Westerlund 1, and we compare them to known YHGs, IRC +10420 and Hen3-1979. We find that the six YHG candidates do not exhibit any metallic emission lines, nor do they show strong H$α$ emission, and as such do not meet the criteria necessary to be classified as YHGs. In conjunction with their moderate luminosities of \logl = 4.7-5.4 estimated from optical/infrared photometry, we suggest instead that they are normal yellow supergiants (YSGs) with more modest initial masses around 15-20 \msun. This adds additional support to the hypothesis that Wd1 is a multi-age cluster with an older age than previously assumed, and is not a $\sim$5 Myr old cluster caught at a very specific transitional point when single-star evolution might yield Wolf-Rayet stars, luminous blue variables (LBVs), RSGs, and YHGs in the same cluster. Nevertheless, the population of YSGs in Wd1 is very unusual, with YSGs outnumbering RSGs, but with both spanning a large luminosity range. Here, we discuss evolutionary scenarios that might have led to the high fraction of YSGs. The number of YSGs and their significant luminosity spread cannot be explained by simple population synthesis models with single or binary stars. Even with multiple ages or a large age spread, the high YSG/RSG ratio remains problematic. We suggest instead that the objects may experience a prolonged YSG phase due to evolution in triple systems.

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arXiv2022

The extreme scarcity of dust-enshrouded red supergiants: consequences for producing stripped stars via winds

Quiescent mass-loss during the red supergiant (RSG) phase has been shown to be far lower than prescriptions typically employed in single-star evolutionary models. Importantly, RSG winds are too weak to drive the production of Wolf-Rayets (WRs) and stripped-envelope supernovae (SE-SNe) at initial masses of roughly 20--40$M_{\odot}$. If single-stars are to make WRs and SE-SNe, this shifts the burden of mass-loss to rare dust-enshrouded RSGs (DE-RSGs), objects claimed to represent a short-lived high mass-loss phase. Here, we take a fresh look at the purported DE-RSGs. By modeling the mid-IR excesses of the full sample of RSGs in the LMC, we find that only one RSG has both a high mass-loss rate (\mdot $\ge$ 10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$) and a high optical circumstellar dust extinction (7.92 mag). This one RSG is WOH G64, and it is the only one of the 14 originally proposed DE-RSGs that is actually dust enshrouded. The rest appear to be either normal RSGs without strong infrared-excess, or lower-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. Only one additional object in the full catalog of RSGs (not previously identified as a DE-RSG) shows strong mid-IR excess. We conclude that if DE-RSGs do represent a pre-SN phase of enhanced \mdot\ in single-stars, it is extremely short-lived, only capable of removing $\leq$2\msun\ of material. This rules out the single-star post-RSG pathway for the production of WRs, LBVs, and SE-SN. Single-star models should not employ \mdot-prescriptions based on these extreme objects for any significant fraction of the RSG phase.

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arXiv2022

An Exceptional Dimming Event for a Massive, Cool Supergiant in M51

We present the discovery of an exceptional dimming event in a cool supergiant star in the Local Volume spiral M51. The star, dubbed M51-DS1, was found as part of a Hubble Space Telescope (HST) search for failed supernovae (SNe). The supergiant, which is plausibly associated with a very young ($\lesssim6$ Myr) stellar population, showed clear variability (amplitude $ΔF814W\approx0.7$ mag) in numerous HST images obtained between 1995 and 2016, before suddenly dimming by $>$2 mag in $F814W$ sometime between late 2017 and mid-2019. In follow-up data from 2021, the star rebrightened, ruling out a failed supernova. Prior to its near-disappearance, the star was luminous and red ($M_{F814W}\lesssim-7.6$ mag, $F606W-F814W=1.9$ - $2.2$ mag). Modeling of the pre-dimming spectral energy distribution of the star favors a highly reddened, very luminous ($\log[L/L_{\odot}] = 5.4$ - $5.7$) star with $T_{\mathrm{eff}}\approx3700$ - $4700$ K, indicative of a cool yellow or post-red supergiant (RSG) with an initial mass of $\approx26$ - $40$ $M_{\odot}$. However, the local interstellar extinction and circumstellar extinction are uncertain, and could be lower: the near-IR colors are consistent with an RSG, which would be cooler ($T_{\mathrm{eff}}\lesssim3700$ K) and slightly less luminous ($\log[L/L_{\odot}] = 5.2$ - $5.3$), giving an inferred initial mass of $\approx19$ - $22$ $M_{\odot}$. In either case, the dimming may be explained by a rare episode of enhanced mass loss that temporarily obscures the star, potentially a more extreme counterpart to the 2019 - 2020 "Great Dimming" of Betelgeuse. Given the emerging evidence that massive evolved stars commonly exhibit variability that can mimic a disappearing star, our work highlights a substantial challenge in identifying true failed SNe.

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arXiv2021

Red Supergiants in M31: The Humphreys-Davidson limit at high metallicity

The empirical upper limit to Red Supergiant (RSG) luminosity, known as the Humphreys-Davidson (HD) limit, has been commonly explained as being caused by the stripping of stellar envelopes by metallicity-dependent, line-driven winds. As such, the theoretical expectation is that the HD limit should be higher at lower metallicity, where weaker mass-loss rates mean that higher initial masses are required for an envelope to be stripped. In this paper, we test this prediction by measuring the luminosity function of RSGs in M31 and comparing to those in the LMC and SMC. We find that $\log (L_{\rm max}/L_{\odot}) = 5.53 \pm 0.03$ in M31 (Z $\gtrsim$ Z$_{\odot}$), consistent with the limit found for both the LMC (Z $\sim$ 0.5 Z$_{\odot}$) and SMC (Z $\sim$ 0.25 Z$_{\odot}$), while the RSG luminosity distributions in these 3 galaxies are consistent to within 1$σ$. We therefore find no evidence for a metallicity dependence on both the HD limit and the RSG luminosity function, and conclude that line-driven winds on the main sequence are not the cause of the HD limit.

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arXiv2021

The impact of realistic red supergiant mass-loss on stellar evolution

Accurate mass-loss rates are essential for meaningful stellar evolutionary models. For massive single stars with initial masses between 8 - 30\msun the implementation of cool supergiant mass loss in stellar models strongly affects the resulting evolution, and the most commonly used prescription for these cool-star phases is that of de Jager. Recently, we published a new \mdot\ prescription calibrated to RSGs with initial masses between 10 - 25\msun, which unlike previous prescriptions does not over estimate \mdot\ for the most massive stars. Here, we carry out a comparative study to the MESA-MIST models, in which we test the effect of altering mass-loss by recomputing the evolution of stars with masses 12-27\msun\ with the new \mdot-prescription implemented. We show that while the evolutionary tracks in the HR diagram of the stars do not change appreciably, the mass of the H-rich envelope at core-collapse is drastically increased compared to models using the de Jager prescription. This increased envelope mass would have a strong impact on the Type II-P SN lightcurve, and would not allow stars under 30\msun\ to evolve back to the blue and explode as H-poor SN. We also predict that the amount of H-envelope around single stars at explosion should be correlated with initial mass, and we discuss the prospects of using this as a method of determining progenitor masses from supernova light curves.

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arXiv2021

The Age of Westerlund 1 Revisited

The cluster Westerlund~1 (Wd1) is host to a large variety of post main-sequence (MS) massive stars. The simultaneous presence of these stars can only be explained by stellar models if the cluster has a finely-tuned age of 4-5Myr, with several published studies independently claiming ages within this range. At this age, stellar models predict that the cool supergiants (CSGs) should have luminosities of $\log(L/L_\odot) \approx 5.5$, close to the empirical luminosity limit. Here, we test that prediction using archival data and new photometry from SOFIA to estimate bolometric luminosities for the CSGs. We find that these stars are on average 0.4dex too faint to be 5Myr old, regardless of which stellar evolution model is used, and instead are indicative of a much older age of $10.4^{+1.3}_{-1.2}$Myr. We argue that neither systematic uncertainties in the extinction law nor stellar variability can explain this discrepancy. In reviewing various independent age estimates of Wd1 in the literature, we firstly show that those based on stellar diversity are unreliable. Secondly, we re-analyse Wd1's pre-MS stars employing the Damineli extinction law, finding an age of $7.2^{+1.1}_{-2.3}$Myr; older than that of previous studies, but which is vulnerable to systematic errors that could push the age close to 10Myr. However, there remains significant tension between the CSG age and that inferred from the eclipsing binary W13. We conclude that stellar evolution models cannot explain Wd1 under the single age paradigm. Instead, we propose that the stars in the Wd1 region formed over a period of several Myr.

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arXiv2020

On aging star clusters using red supergiants independent of the fraction of interacting binary stars

We use the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) models to test the recent suggestion that red supergiants can provide an accurate age estimate of a co-eval stellar population that is unaffected by interacting binary stars. Ages are estimated by using both the minimum luminosity red supergiant and the mean luminosity of red supergiants in a cluster. We test these methods on a number of observed star clusters and find our results in agreement with previous estimates. Importantly we find the difference between the ages derived from stellar population models with and without a realistic population of interacting binary stars is only a few 100,000 years at most. We find that the mean luminosity of red supergiants in a cluster is the best method to determine the age of a cluster because it is based o the entire red supergiant population rather than using only the least luminous red supergiant.

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arXiv2020

A new mass-loss rate prescription for red supergiants

Evolutionary models have shown the substantial effect that strong mass-loss rates ($\dot{M}$) can have on the fate of massive stars. Red supergiant (RSG) mass-loss is poorly understood theoretically, and so stellar models rely on purely empirical \mdot-luminosity relations to calculate evolution. Empirical prescriptions usually scale with luminosity and effective temperature, but $\dot{M}$ should also depend on the current mass and hence the surface gravity of the star, yielding more than one possible $\dot{M}$ for the same position on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. One can solve this degeneracy by measuring $\dot{M}$ for RSGs that reside in clusters, where age and initial mass ($M_{\rm init}$) are known. In this paper we derive $\dot{M}$ values and luminosities for RSGs in two clusters, NGC 2004 and RSGC1. Using newly derived $M_{\rm init}$ measurements, we combine the results with those of clusters with a range of ages and derive an $M_{\rm init}$-dependent $\dot{M}$-prescription. When comparing this new prescription to the treatment of mass-loss currently implemented in evolutionary models, we find models drastically over-predict the total mass-loss, by up to a factor of 20. Importantly, the most massive RSGs experience the largest downward revision in their mass-loss rates, drastically changing the impact of wind mass-loss on their evolution. Our results suggest that for most initial masses of RSG progenitors, quiescent mass-loss during the RSG phase is not effective at removing a significant fraction of the H-envelope prior to core-collapse, and we discuss the implications of this for stellar evolution and observations of SNe and SN progenitors.

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