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Emmanuel Gobet

Publications and source records attributed to Emmanuel Gobet.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Numerical approximation of Markovian BSDEs in infinite horizon and elliptic PDEs

We study backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) in infinite horizon and design efficient numerical schemes for solving them. We establish a probabilistic representation of the solution of the BSDE using Malliavin derivative and prove results for contraction of a Picard scheme. We develop three numerical schemes, of which the first two are based on a fixed point argument using contraction, imposing additional assumptions compared to what is needed for existence and uniqueness of the solution. The first scheme is a space grid based approximation where we establish tight numerical error bounds using a growth truncation argument; it performs well in low dimensions but computational times increase exponentially with dimension. The second scheme uses neural network approximations for which we have proved a convergence result. Using neural networks alleviates the curse of dimensionality, giving good accuracy in very high dimensions. The third scheme also uses neural networks but does not rely on contraction arguments, showcasing good performance even for larger z-Lipschitz dependence outside the domain of contraction.

math.PR

Numerical approximation of ergodic BSDEs using non linear Feynman-Kac formulas

In this work we study the numerical approximation of a class of ergodic Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. These equations are formulated in an infinite horizon framework and provide a probabilistic representation for elliptic Partial Differential Equations of ergodic type. In order to build our numerical scheme, we put forward a new representation of the PDE solution by using a classical probabilistic representation of the gradient. Then, based on this representation, we propose a fully implementable numerical scheme using a Picard iteration procedure, a grid space discretization and a Monte-Carlo approximation. Up to a limiting technical condition that guarantees the contraction of the Picard procedure, we obtain an upper bound for the numerical error. We also provide some numerical experiments that show the efficiency of this approach for small dimensions.

math.NA

Unbiasing and robustifying implied volatility calibration in a cryptocurrency market with large bid-ask spreads and missing quotes

We design a novel calibration procedure that is designed to handle the specific characteristics of options on cryptocurrency markets, namely large bid-ask spreads and the possibility of missing or incoherent prices in the considered data sets. We show that this calibration procedure is significantly more robust and accurate than the standard one based on trade and mid-prices.

q-fin.PR

Weak approximations and VIX option price expansions in forward variance curve models

We provide explicit approximation formulas for VIX futures and options in forward variance models, with particular emphasis on the family of so-called Bergomi models: the one-factor Bergomi model [Bergomi, Smile dynamics II, Risk, 2005], the rough Bergomi model [Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, Pricing under rough volatility, Quantitative Finance, 16(6):887-904, 2016], and an enhanced version of the rough model that can generate realistic positive skew for VIX smiles -- introduced simultaneously by De Marco [Bachelier World Congress, 2018] and Guyon [Bachelier World Congress, 2018] on the lines of [Bergomi, Smile dynamics III, Risk, 2008], that we refer to as 'mixed rough Bergomi model'. Following the methodology set up in [Gobet and Miri, Weak approximation of averaged diffusion processes. Stochastic Process.\ Appl., 124(1):475-504, 2014], we derive weak approximations for the law of the VIX, leading to option price approximations under the form of explicit combinations of Black-Scholes prices and greeks. As new contributions, we cope with the fractional integration kernel appearing in rough models and treat the case of non-smooth payoffs, so to encompass VIX futures, call and put options. We stress that our approach does not rely on small-time asymptotics nor small-parameter (such as small volatility-of-volatility) asymptotics, and can therefore be applied to any option maturity and a wide range of parameter configurations. Our results are illustrated by several numerical experiments and calibration tests to VIX market data.

q-fin.MF

Generalization bounds for nonparametric regression with $β-$mixing samples

In this paper we present a series of results that permit to extend in a direct manner uniform deviation inequalities of the empirical process from the independent to the dependent case characterizing the additional error in terms of $β-$mixing coefficients associated to the training sample. We then apply these results to some previously obtained inequalities for independent samples associated to the deviation of the least-squared error in nonparametric regression to derive corresponding generalization bounds for regression schemes in which the training sample may not be independent. These results provide a framework to analyze the error associated to regression schemes whose training sample comes from a large class of $β-$mixing sequences, including geometrically ergodic Markov samples, using only the independent case. More generally, they permit a meaningful extension of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis and similar theories for independent training samples to this class of $β-$mixing samples.

math.ST

Approximation of backward stochastic differential equations using Malliavin weights and least-squares regression

We design a numerical scheme for solving a Dynamic Programming equation with Malliavin weights arising from the time-discretization of backward stochastic differential equations with the integration by parts-representation of the $Z$-component by (Ann. Appl. Probab. 12 (2002) 1390-1418). When the sequence of conditional expectations is computed using empirical least-squares regressions, we establish, under general conditions, tight error bounds as the time-average of local regression errors only (up to logarithmic factors). We compute the algorithm complexity by a suitable optimization of the parameters, depending on the dimension and the smoothness of value functions, in the limit as the number of grid times goes to infinity. The estimates take into account the regularity of the terminal function.

math.ST

First time to exit of a continuous Itô process: general moment estimates and L1-convergence rate for discrete time approximations

We establish general moment estimates for the discrete and continuous exit times of a general Itô process in terms of the distance to the boundary. These estimates serve as intermediate steps to obtain strong convergence results for the approximation of a continuous exit time by a discrete counterpart, computed on a grid. In particular, we prove that the discrete exit time of the Euler scheme of a diffusion converges in the L1 norm with an order 1/2 with respect to the mesh size.

math.PR

Almost sure optimal hedging strategy

In this work, we study the optimal discretization error of stochastic integrals, in the context of the hedging error in a multidimensional Itô model when the discrete rebalancing dates are stopping times. We investigate the convergence, in an almost sure sense, of the renormalized quadratic variation of the hedging error, for which we exhibit an asymptotic lower bound for a large class of stopping time strategies. Moreover, we make explicit a strategy which asymptotically attains this lower bound a.s. Remarkably, the results hold under great generality on the payoff and the model. Our analysis relies on new results enabling us to control a.s. processes, stochastic integrals and related increments.

math.PR

Fractional smoothness of functionals of diffusion processes under a change of measure

Let $v:[0,T]\times \R^d \to \R$ be the solution of the parabolic backward equation $ \partial_t v + (1/2) \sum_{i,l} [σσ^\perp]_{il} \partial_{x_i \partial_{x_l} v + \sum_{i} b_i \partial_{x_i}v + kv =0$ with terminal condition $g$, where the coefficients are time- and state-dependent, and satisfy certain regularity assumptions. Let $X=(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ be the associated $\R^d$-valued diffusion process on some appropriate $(Ω,\cF,\Q)$. For $p\in [2,\infty)$ and a measure $d¶=λ_T d\Q$, where $λ_T$ satisfies the Muckenhoupt condition $A_α$ for $α\in (1,p)$, we relate the behavior of $\|g(X_T)-\ept g(X_T) \|_{L_p(¶)}$, $\|\nabla v(t,X_t) \|_{L_p(¶)}$ and $\|D^2 v(t,X_t) \|_{L_p(¶)}$ to each other, where $D^2v:=(\partial_{x_i \partial_{x_l}v)_{i,l}$ is the Hessian matrix.

math.PR

Fractional smoothness and applications in finance

This overview article concerns the notion of fractional smoothness of random variables of the form $g(X_T)$, where $X=(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ is a certain diffusion process. We review the connection to the real interpolation theory, give examples and applications of this concept. The applications in stochastic finance mainly concern the analysis of discrete time hedging errors. We close the review by indicating some further developments.

math.PR

Stopped diffusion processes: boundary corrections and overshoot

For a stopped diffusion process in a multidimensional time-dependent domain $\D$, we propose and analyse a new procedure consisting in simulating the process with an Euler scheme with step size $Δ$ and stopping it at discrete times $(iΔ)_{i\in\N^*}$ in a modified domain, whose boundary has been appropriately shifted. The shift is locally in the direction of the inward normal $n(t,x)$ at any point $(t,x)$ on the parabolic boundary of $\D$, and its amplitude is equal to $0.5826 (...) |n^*σ|(t,x)\sqrt Δ$ where $σ$ stands for the diffusion coefficient of the process. The procedure is thus extremely easy to use. In addition, we prove that the rate of convergence w.r.t. $Δ$ for the associated weak error is higher than without shifting, generalizin g previous results by \cite{broa:glas:kou:97} obtained for the one dimensional Brownian motion. For this, we establish in full generality the asymptotics of the triplet exit time/exit position/overshoot for the discretely stopped Euler scheme. Here, the overshoot means the distance to the boundary of the process when it exits the domain. Numerical experiments support these results.

math.PR

Smart expansion and fast calibration for jump diffusion

Using Malliavin calculus techniques, we derive an analytical formula for the price of European options, for any model including local volatility and Poisson jump process. We show that the accuracy of the formula depends on the smoothness of the payoff function. Our approach relies on an asymptotic expansion related to small diffusion and small jump frequency/size. Our formula has excellent accuracy (the error on implied Black-Scholes volatilities for call option is smaller than 2 bp for various strikes and maturities). Additionally, model calibration becomes very rapid.

q-fin.PR

Numerical simulation of BSDEs using empirical regression methods: theory and practice

This article deals with the numerical resolution of backward stochastic differential equations. Firstly, we consider a rather general case where the filtration is generated by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We provide a simulation algorithm based on iterative regressions on function bases, which coefficients are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. We state fully explicit error bounds. Secondly, restricting to the case of a Brownian filtration, we consider reflected BSDEs and adapt the previous algorithm to that situation. The complexity of the algorithm is very competitive and allows us to treat numerical results in dimension 10.

math.PR

Arbitrage free cointegrated models in gas and oil future markets

In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutral probability, the motions of both energies are correlated Brownian motions while under the historical probability, they are cointegrated by a Vectorial Error Correction Model. Our approach is equivalent to defining the market price of risk. This model is free of arbitrage: thus, it can be used for risk management as well for option pricing issues. Calibration on European market data and numerical simulations illustrate well its behavior.

q-fin.ST

LAMN property for hidden processes: the case of integrated diffusions

In this paper we prove the Local Asymptotic Mixed Normality (LAMN) property for the statistical model given by the observation of local means of a diffusion process $X$. Our data are given by $ \int_0^1 X_{\frac{s+i}{n}} \dd μ(s)$ for $i=0,...,n-1$ and the unknown parameter appears in the diffusion coefficient of the process $X$ only. Although the data are nor Markovian neither Gaussian we can write down, with help of Malliavin calculus, an explicit expression for the log-likelihood of the model, and then study the asymptotic expansion. We actually find that the asymptotic information of this model is the same one as for a usual discrete sampling of $X$.

math.PR

Error expansion for the discretization of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

We study the error induced by the time discretization of a decoupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations $(X,Y,Z)$. The forward component $X$ is the solution of a Brownian stochastic differential equation and is approximated by a Euler scheme $X^N$ with $N$ time steps. The backward component is approximated by a backward scheme. Firstly, we prove that the errors $(Y^N-Y,Z^N-Z)$ measured in the strong $L\_p$-sense ($p \geq 1$) are of order $N^{-1/2}$ (this generalizes the results by Zhang 2004). Secondly, an error expansion is derived: surprisingly, the first term is proportional to $X^N-X$ while residual terms are of order $N^{-1}$.

math.PR

A regression-based Monte Carlo method to solve backward stochastic differential equations

We are concerned with the numerical resolution of backward stochastic differential equations. We propose a new numerical scheme based on iterative regressions on function bases, which coefficients are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. A full convergence analysis is derived. Numerical experiments about finance are included, in particular, concerning option pricing with differential interest rates.

math.PR