arXiv subjects

Emmanuel J. Candes

Publications and source records attributed to Emmanuel J. Candes.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

De Finetti's theorem and related results for infinite weighted exchangeable sequences

De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequences of random variables. In this paper, we consider a weighted generalization of exchangeability that allows for weight functions to modify the individual distributions of the random variables along the sequence, provided that -- modulo these weight functions -- there is still some common exchangeable base measure. We study conditions under which a de Finetti-type representation exists for weighted exchangeable sequences, as a mixture of distributions which satisfy a weighted form of the i.i.d. property. Our approach establishes a nested family of conditions that lead to weighted extensions of other well-known related results as well, in particular, extensions of the zero-one law and the law of large numbers.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model fitting algorithm as a function of the data. However, exchangeability is often violated when predictive models are deployed in practice. For example, if the data distribution drifts over time, then the data points are no longer exchangeable; moreover, in such settings, we might want to use a nonsymmetric algorithm that treats recent observations as more relevant. This paper generalizes conformal prediction to deal with both aspects: we employ weighted quantiles to introduce robustness against distribution drift, and design a new randomization technique to allow for algorithms that do not treat data points symmetrically. Our new methods are provably robust, with substantially less loss of coverage when exchangeability is violated due to distribution drift or other challenging features of real data, while also achieving the same coverage guarantees as existing conformal prediction methods if the data points are in fact exchangeable. We demonstrate the practical utility of these new tools with simulations and real-data experiments on electricity and election forecasting.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Permutation tests using arbitrary permutation distributions

Permutation tests date back nearly a century to Fisher's randomized experiments, and remain an immensely popular statistical tool, used for testing hypotheses of independence between variables and other common inferential questions. Much of the existing literature has emphasized that, for the permutation p-value to be valid, one must first pick a subgroup $G$ of permutations (which could equal the full group) and then recalculate the test statistic on permuted data using either an exhaustive enumeration of $G$, or a sample from $G$ drawn uniformly at random. In this work, we demonstrate that the focus on subgroups and uniform sampling are both unnecessary for validity -- in fact, a simple random modification of the permutation p-value remains valid even when using an arbitrary distribution (not necessarily uniform) over any subset of permutations (not necessarily a subgroup). We provide a unified theoretical treatment of such generalized permutation tests, recovering all known results from the literature as special cases. Thus, this work expands the flexibility of the permutation test toolkit available to the practitioner.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

An Adaptively Resized Parametric Bootstrap for Inference in High-dimensional Generalized Linear Models

Accurate statistical inference in logistic regression models remains a critical challenge when the ratio between the number of parameters and sample size is not negligible. This is because approximations based on either classical asymptotic theory or bootstrap calculations are grossly off the mark. This paper introduces a resized bootstrap method to infer model parameters in arbitrary dimensions. As in the parametric bootstrap, we resample observations from a distribution, which depends on an estimated regression coefficient sequence. The novelty is that this estimate is actually far from the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). This estimate is informed by recent theory studying properties of the MLE in high dimensions, and is obtained by appropriately shrinking the MLE towards the origin. We demonstrate that the resized bootstrap method yields valid confidence intervals in both simulated and real data examples. Our methods extend to other high-dimensional generalized linear models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Predictive inference with the jackknife+

This paper introduces the jackknife+, which is a novel method for constructing predictive confidence intervals. Whereas the jackknife outputs an interval centered at the predicted response of a test point, with the width of the interval determined by the quantiles of leave-one-out residuals, the jackknife+ also uses the leave-one-out predictions at the test point to account for the variability in the fitted regression function. Assuming exchangeable training samples, we prove that this crucial modification permits rigorous coverage guarantees regardless of the distribution of the data points, for any algorithm that treats the training points symmetrically. Such guarantees are not possible for the original jackknife and we demonstrate examples where the coverage rate may actually vanish. Our theoretical and empirical analysis reveals that the jackknife and the jackknife+ intervals achieve nearly exact coverage and have similar lengths whenever the fitting algorithm obeys some form of stability. Further, we extend the jackknife+ to K-fold cross validation and similarly establish rigorous coverage properties. Our methods are related to cross-conformal prediction proposed by Vovk [2015] and we discuss connections.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A modern maximum-likelihood theory for high-dimensional logistic regression

Every student in statistics or data science learns early on that when the sample size largely exceeds the number of variables, fitting a logistic model produces estimates that are approximately unbiased. Every student also learns that there are formulas to predict the variability of these estimates which are used for the purpose of statistical inference; for instance, to produce p-values for testing the significance of regression coefficients. Although these formulas come from large sample asymptotics, we are often told that we are on reasonably safe grounds when $n$ is large in such a way that $n \ge 5p$ or $n \ge 10p$. This paper shows that this is far from the case, and consequently, inferences routinely produced by common software packages are often unreliable. Consider a logistic model with independent features in which $n$ and $p$ become increasingly large in a fixed ratio. Then we show that (1) the MLE is biased, (2) the variability of the MLE is far greater than classically predicted, and (3) the commonly used likelihood-ratio test (LRT) is not distributed as a chi-square. The bias of the MLE is extremely problematic as it yields completely wrong predictions for the probability of a case based on observed values of the covariates. We develop a new theory, which asymptotically predicts (1) the bias of the MLE, (2) the variability of the MLE, and (3) the distribution of the LRT. We empirically also demonstrate that these predictions are extremely accurate in finite samples. Further, an appealing feature is that these novel predictions depend on the unknown sequence of regression coefficients only through a single scalar, the overall strength of the signal. This suggests very concrete procedures to adjust inference; we describe one such procedure learning a single parameter from data and producing accurate inference

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A knockoff filter for high-dimensional selective inference

This paper develops a framework for testing for associations in a possibly high-dimensional linear model where the number of features/variables may far exceed the number of observational units. In this framework, the observations are split into two groups, where the first group is used to screen for a set of potentially relevant variables, whereas the second is used for inference over this reduced set of variables; we also develop strategies for leveraging information from the first part of the data at the inference step for greater power. In our work, the inferential step is carried out by applying the recently introduced knockoff filter, which creates a knockoff copy-a fake variable serving as a control-for each screened variable. We prove that this procedure controls the directional false discovery rate (FDR) in the reduced model controlling for all screened variables; this says that our high-dimensional knockoff procedure 'discovers' important variables as well as the directions (signs) of their effects, in such a way that the expected proportion of wrongly chosen signs is below the user-specified level (thereby controlling a notion of Type S error averaged over the selected set). This result is non-asymptotic, and holds for any distribution of the original features and any values of the unknown regression coefficients, so that inference is not calibrated under hypothesized values of the effect sizes. We demonstrate the performance of our general and flexible approach through numerical studies, showing more power than existing alternatives. Finally, we apply our method to a genome-wide association study to find locations on the genome that are possibly associated with a continuous phenotype.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

The phase transition for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in high-dimensional logistic regression

This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve $h_{\text{MLE}}$, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes $n$ and number of features $p$ proportioned in such a way that $p/n \rightarrow κ$, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense that $κ> h_{\text{MLE}}$, then the MLE does not exist with probability one. Conversely, if $κ< h_{\text{MLE}}$, the MLE asymptotically exists with probability one.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Solving Random Quadratic Systems of Equations Is Nearly as Easy as Solving Linear Systems

We consider the fundamental problem of solving quadratic systems of equations in $n$ variables, where $y_i = |\langle \boldsymbol{a}_i, \boldsymbol{x} \rangle|^2$, $i = 1, \ldots, m$ and $\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^n$ is unknown. We propose a novel method, which starting with an initial guess computed by means of a spectral method, proceeds by minimizing a nonconvex functional as in the Wirtinger flow approach. There are several key distinguishing features, most notably, a distinct objective functional and novel update rules, which operate in an adaptive fashion and drop terms bearing too much influence on the search direction. These careful selection rules provide a tighter initial guess, better descent directions, and thus enhanced practical performance. On the theoretical side, we prove that for certain unstructured models of quadratic systems, our algorithms return the correct solution in linear time, i.e. in time proportional to reading the data $\{\boldsymbol{a}_i\}$ and $\{y_i\}$ as soon as the ratio $m/n$ between the number of equations and unknowns exceeds a fixed numerical constant. We extend the theory to deal with noisy systems in which we only have $y_i \approx |\langle \boldsymbol{a}_i, \boldsymbol{x} \rangle|^2$ and prove that our algorithms achieve a statistical accuracy, which is nearly un-improvable. We complement our theoretical study with numerical examples showing that solving random quadratic systems is both computationally and statistically not much harder than solving linear systems of the same size---hence the title of this paper. For instance, we demonstrate empirically that the computational cost of our algorithm is about four times that of solving a least-squares problem of the same size.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2015

A Differential Equation for Modeling Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient Method: Theory and Insights

We derive a second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) which is the limit of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method. This ODE exhibits approximate equivalence to Nesterov's scheme and thus can serve as a tool for analysis. We show that the continuous time ODE allows for a better understanding of Nesterov's scheme. As a byproduct, we obtain a family of schemes with similar convergence rates. The ODE interpretation also suggests restarting Nesterov's scheme leading to an algorithm, which can be rigorously proven to converge at a linear rate whenever the objective is strongly convex.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Super-Resolution of Positive Sources: the Discrete Setup

In single-molecule microscopy it is necessary to locate with high precision point sources from noisy observations of the spectrum of the signal at frequencies capped by $f_c$, which is just about the frequency of natural light. This paper rigorously establishes that this super-resolution problem can be solved via linear programming in a stable manner. We prove that the quality of the reconstruction crucially depends on the Rayleigh regularity of the support of the signal; that is, on the maximum number of sources that can occur within a square of side length about $1/f_c$. The theoretical performance guarantee is complemented with a converse result showing that our simple convex program convex is nearly optimal. Finally, numerical experiments illustrate our methods.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2012

Unbiased Risk Estimates for Singular Value Thresholding and Spectral Estimators

In an increasing number of applications, it is of interest to recover an approximately low-rank data matrix from noisy observations. This paper develops an unbiased risk estimate---holding in a Gaussian model---for any spectral estimator obeying some mild regularity assumptions. In particular, we give an unbiased risk estimate formula for singular value thresholding (SVT), a popular estimation strategy which applies a soft-thresholding rule to the singular values of the noisy observations. Among other things, our formulas offer a principled and automated way of selecting regularization parameters in a variety of problems. In particular, we demonstrate the utility of the unbiased risk estimation for SVT-based denoising of real clinical cardiac MRI series data. We also give new results concerning the differentiability of certain matrix-valued functions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Solving Quadratic Equations via PhaseLift when There Are About As Many Equations As Unknowns

This note shows that we can recover a complex vector x in C^n exactly from on the order of n quadratic equations of the form | |^2 = b_i, i = 1, ..., m, by using a semidefinite program known as PhaseLift. This improves upon earlier bounds in [3], which required the number of equations to be at least on the order of n log n. We also demonstrate optimal recovery results from noisy quadratic measurements; these results are much sharper than previously known results.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2012

On the Fundamental Limits of Adaptive Sensing

Suppose we can sequentially acquire arbitrary linear measurements of an n-dimensional vector x resulting in the linear model y = Ax + z, where z represents measurement noise. If the signal is known to be sparse, one would expect the following folk theorem to be true: choosing an adaptive strategy which cleverly selects the next row of A based on what has been previously observed should do far better than a nonadaptive strategy which sets the rows of A ahead of time, thus not trying to learn anything about the signal in between observations. This paper shows that the folk theorem is false. We prove that the advantages offered by clever adaptive strategies and sophisticated estimation procedures---no matter how intractable---over classical compressed acquisition/recovery schemes are, in general, minimal.

math.ST↗

arXiv2011

PhaseLift: Exact and Stable Signal Recovery from Magnitude Measurements via Convex Programming

Suppose we wish to recover a signal x in C^n from m intensity measurements of the form | |^2, i = 1, 2,..., m; that is, from data in which phase information is missing. We prove that if the vectors z_i are sampled independently and uniformly at random on the unit sphere, then the signal x can be recovered exactly (up to a global phase factor) by solving a convenient semidefinite program---a trace-norm minimization problem; this holds with large probability provided that m is on the order of n log n, and without any assumption about the signal whatsoever. This novel result demonstrates that in some instances, the combinatorial phase retrieval problem can be solved by convex programming techniques. Finally, we also prove that our methodology is robust vis a vis additive noise.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2011

Phase Retrieval via Matrix Completion

This paper develops a novel framework for phase retrieval, a problem which arises in X-ray crystallography, diffraction imaging, astronomical imaging and many other applications. Our approach combines multiple structured illuminations together with ideas from convex programming to recover the phase from intensity measurements, typically from the modulus of the diffracted wave. We demonstrate empirically that any complex-valued object can be recovered from the knowledge of the magnitude of just a few diffracted patterns by solving a simple convex optimization problem inspired by the recent literature on matrix completion. More importantly, we also demonstrate that our noise-aware algorithms are stable in the sense that the reconstruction degrades gracefully as the signal-to-noise ratio decreases. Finally, we introduce some theory showing that one can design very simple structured illumination patterns such that three diffracted figures uniquely determine the phase of the object we wish to recover.

cs.IT↗