Emmanuel O. Ogundimu | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models using spike-and-slab priors

Sample selection models are a widely used approach for correcting bias caused by data that are missing not at random. Their formulation requires specifying the variables that influence the outcome and those that drive the selection process. This specification is often based on expert knowledge, which can result in the inclusion of irrelevant variables or the omission of important ones. Moreover, to avoid inferential problems such as practical non-identifiability, practitioners frequently impose exclusion restrictions, that is, model specifications in which certain variables predict selection but have no effect on the outcome of interest. A recent proposal employs adaptive LASSO to select the variables that enter into the outcome and selection equations, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Selecting for Less Discriminatory Algorithms: A Relational Search Framework for Navigating Fairness-Accuracy Trade-offs in Practice

As machine learning models are increasingly embedded into society through high-stakes decision-making, selecting the right algorithm for a given task, audience, and sector presents a critical challenge, particularly in the context of fairness. Traditional assessments of model fairness have often framed fairness as an objective mathematical property, treating model selection as an optimization problem under idealized informational conditions. This overlooks model multiplicity as a consideration--that multiple models can deliver similar performance while exhibiting different fairness characteristics. Legal scholars have engaged this challenge through the concept of Less Discriminatory Algorithms (LDAs), which frames model selection as a civil rights obligation. In real-world deployment, this normative challenge is bounded by constraints on fairness experimentation, e.g., regulatory standards, institutional priorities, and resource capacity. Against these considerations, the paper revisits Lee and Floridi (2021)'s relational fairness approach using updated 2021 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, and proposes an expansion of the scope of the LDA search process. We argue that extending the LDA search horizontally, considering fairness across model families themselves, provides a lightweight complement, or alternative, to within-model hyperparameter optimization, when operationalizing fairness in non-experimental, resource constrained settings. Fairness metrics alone offer useful, but insufficient signals to accurately evaluate candidate LDAs. Rather, by using a horizontal LDA search approach with the relational trade-off framework, we demonstrate a responsible minimum viable LDA search on real-world lending outcomes. Organizations can modify this approach to systematically compare, evaluate, and select LDAs that optimize fairness and accuracy in a sector-based contextualized manner.

cs.LG↗