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Emmet Hall-Hoffarth

Publications and source records attributed to Emmet Hall-Hoffarth.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Non-linear approximations of DSGE models with neural-networks and hard-constraints

Recently a number of papers have suggested using neural-networks in order to approximate policy functions in DSGE models, while avoiding the curse of dimensionality, which for example arises when solving many HANK models, and while preserving non-linearity. One important step of this method is to represent the constraints of the economic model in question in the outputs of the neural-network. I propose, and demonstrate the advantages of, a novel approach to handling these constraints which involves directly constraining the neural-network outputs, such that the economic constraints are satisfied by construction. This is achieved by a combination of re-scaling operations that are differentiable and therefore compatible with the standard gradient descent approach used when fitting neural-networks. This has a number of attractive properties, and is shown to out-perform the penalty-based approach suggested by the existing literature, which while theoretically sound, can be poorly behaved practice for a number of reasons that I identify.

econ.TH↗

Causal Discovery of Macroeconomic State-Space Models

This paper presents a set of tests and an algorithm for agnostic, data-driven selection among macroeconomic DSGE models inspired by structure learning methods for DAGs. As the log-linear state-space solution to any DSGE model is also a DAG it is possible to use associated concepts to identify a unique ground-truth state-space model which is compatible with an underlying DGP, based on the conditional independence relationships which are present in that DGP. In order to operationalise search for this ground-truth model, the algorithm tests feasible analogues of these conditional independence criteria against the set of combinatorially possible state-space models over observed variables. This process is consistent in large samples. In small samples the result may not be unique, so conditional independence tests can be combined with likelihood maximisation in order to select a single optimal model. The efficacy of this algorithm is demonstrated for simulated data, and results for real data are also provided and discussed.

econ.TH↗