arXiv subjects

Enrica Bellone

Publications and source records attributed to Enrica Bellone.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2007

Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2007

Correlations between hurricane numbers and sea surface temperature: why does the correlation disappear at landfall?

There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of \emph{landfalling} hurricanes is much lower, however. Why is this? Do we need to consider complex physical hypotheses, or is there a simple statistical explanation?

physics.ao-ph↗