arXiv subjects

Enrico Verdolotti

Publications and source records attributed to Enrico Verdolotti.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

"If It Looks Like a User": Measuring Real-Time Moderation Effects via Social Media Simulation

Agent-based social media simulators offer a controlled environment to study content moderation, yet their value hinges on how faithfully they reproduce real platform dynamics. We develop a calibrated extension of SimSoM, an agent-based model of information diffusion on social networks, grounded in a real-world dataset of online vaccine discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach replaces ad-hoc parametrisations with empirically fitted distributions, optimised via CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) and validated against real data across temporal, distributional, and structural dimensions. Using this validated simulator, we provide three key contributions. First, we show that the calibrated model reproduces key statistical signatures of the empirical data, including activity distributions, post/reshare ratios, and temporal patterns. Second, we apply established misinformation-spreader detection and prevention methods to both empirical and simulated data, progressively removing top-ranked users and showing that the resulting decline in low-quality content is consistent across the two. Third, comparing static (retroactive) and dynamic (in-simulation) moderation across 30 network realisations, we show that static evaluation significantly overestimates the effectiveness of user bans for the most effective detectors: when moderation is applied in real time, compensatory resharing by the remaining users dampens the expected reduction in low-quality content, so static estimates should be read as an upper bound. These findings highlight the necessity of simulation-based evaluation for content moderation policies and contribute a reusable, empirically grounded simulation framework.

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arXiv2026

Predicting, Evaluating, and Explaining Top Misinformation Spreaders via Archetypal User Behavior

The spread of misinformation on social networks poses a significant challenge to online communities and society at large. Not all users contribute equally to this phenomenon: a small number of highly effective individuals can exert outsized influence, amplifying false narratives and contributing to significant societal harm. This paper seeks to mitigate the spread of misinformation by enabling proactive interventions, identifying and ranking users according to key behavioral indicators associated with harmful content dissemination. We examine three user archetypes -- amplifiers, super-spreaders, and coordinated accounts -- each characterized by distinct behavioral patterns in the dissemination of misinformation. These are not mutually exclusive, and individual users may exhibit characteristics of multiple archetypes. We develop and evaluate several user ranking models, each aligned with a specific archetype, and find that super-spreader traits consistently dominate the top ranks among the most influential misinformation spreaders. As we move down the ranking, however, the interplay of multiple archetypes becomes more prominent. Additionally, we demonstrate the critical role of temporal dynamics in predictive performance, and introduce methods that reduce data requirements by minimizing the observation window needed for accurate forecasting. Finally, we demonstrate the utility and benefits of explainable AI (XAI) techniques, integrating multiple archetypal traits into a unified model to enhance interpretability and offer deeper insight into the key factors driving misinformation propagation. Our findings provide actionable tools for identifying potentially harmful users and guiding content moderation strategies, enabling platforms to monitor accounts of concern more effectively.

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arXiv2025

Audit of takedown delays across social media reveals failure to reduce exposure to illegal content

Illegal content on social media poses significant societal harm and necessitates timely removal. However, the impact of the speed of content removal on prevalence, reach, and exposure to illegal content remains underexplored. This study examines the relationship with a systematic audit of takedown delays using data from the EU Digital Services Act Transparency Database, covering five major platforms over a one-year period. We find substantial variation in takedown delay, with some content remaining online for weeks or even months. To evaluate how these delays affect the prevalence and reach of illegal content and exposure to it, we develop an agent-based model and calibrate it to empirical data. We simulate illegal content diffusion, revealing that rapid takedown (within hours) significantly reduces prevalence, reach, and exposure to illegal content, while the longer delays measured by the audit fail to reduce its spread. Though the link between delay and spread is intuitive, our simulations quantify exactly how takedown speed shapes exposure to illegal content. Building on these results, we point to the benefits of faster content removal to effectively curb the spread of illegal content, while also considering the limitations of strict enforcement policies.

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