arXiv subjects

Enrico Zio

Publications and source records attributed to Enrico Zio.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Marine Engine Fault Dataset: Open-Access Data under Controlled Reference and Fault Scenario Conditions

Open-access datasets for marine-engine predictive maintenance remain scarce, particularly those from controlled fault experiments with documented operating conditions, subsystem-level interventions and system-level measurements. This work presents the Marine Engine Fault Dataset, an openly available dataset from a turbocharged, intercooled three-cylinder marine diesel engine operated on a testbed under both reference and fault-scenario conditions. The experimental campaign combined a reference-performance program across the 30-90% load range with scenario-based tests in which abnormal conditions were introduced after stabilized fault-free operation, enabling controlled comparison between baseline and fault-affected behaviour. Five anomaly classes were implemented through physical interventions affecting major engine subsystems: cooling-water pump cavitation, compressor air-filter clogging, air-cooler fouling, injection-valve nozzle clogging and turbine degradation induced through increased exhaust-side restriction. The released data comprise multi-sensor time-series of operating, thermal, pressure, flow and combustion-related variables, with a separate reference-performance record and metadata for structured reuse. Technical validation shows that the reference measurements remain physically coherent across the operating range and that the imposed anomalies produce interpretable response patterns consistent with the affected subsystems, including progressively distinguishable behaviour where different severities were implemented. By combining controlled fault realization, multi-load operation and system-level measurements within a real marine-engine platform, the dataset provides a well-documented benchmark for anomaly detection, fault diagnosis, degradation modelling and related condition-monitoring studies in maritime machinery.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Tradeoffs of On-Device Generative Models in Federated Predictive Maintenance Systems

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for preserving client data ownership and control over distributed Internet of Things (IoT) environments. While discriminative models dominate most FL use cases, recent advances in generative models -- such as Variational Autoencoders (VAE), Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), and Diffusion Models (DM) -- offer new opportunities for unsupervised anomaly detection in time series analysis, with relevant applications in predictive maintenance (PdM) in critical industrial infrastructures. In this work, we present a comprehensive analysis of VAEs, GANs, and DMs in the context of federated PdM. We analyze their performance and communication overhead under both full and partial federation setups, where only subsets of model components are shared. Building on this analysis, the paper proposes a novel taxonomy for federated generative models that formalizes partial component sharing as a principled mechanism for model personalization. Our experiments over a real-world time series dataset reveal distinct trade-offs in model utility, stability, and scalability, especially in heterogeneous and bandwidth-constrained FL settings. For the evaluated GAN-based configurations, full federation improves training stability relative to independent local training, although the model remains less robust than the VAE- and DDPM-based alternatives. For DMs, however, partial federation -- especially decoder sharing -- can outperform full federation in bandwidth-constrained, non-IID settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A comprehensive study on causal discovery between degradation paths

Existing studies indicate that complex system degradation is characterized by degradation of multiple dependent parameters. Capturing the dependencies is crucial for accurate degradation modeling and effective degradation control. This work aims to uncover these dependencies through causal analysis, focusing on pairwise causal discovery. Firstly, considering the steady-state characteristic of physical dependencies between parameters, a causal discovery strategy using degradation increments is proposed combined with non-temporal causal discovery techniques. Then, five types of non-temporal causal discovery techniques, including constraint-based, score-based, functional causal model-based, gradient-based and the emerging ordering-based technique, are selected as benchmark methods to identify the most suitable approach. Numerical studies based on Wiener process are first conducted to investigate the method effectiveness on both independent and causally dependent degradation paths. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate how degradation process characteristics affect the accuracy of causal discovery. Then, two engineering applications are given to show the practical applicability of the approach, including a second-order multiple-feedback band pass filter and a turbofan engine. Our findings indicate that the proposed strategy, which uses degradation increments, outperforms methods that rely on raw degradation data. Among all evaluated techniques, stable Peter-Clark and greedy equivalence search exhibit robust and accurate performance across both numerical and engineering cases, which are recommended for causal discovery between degradation paths. The code is available on GitHub: https://github.com/dirge1/causal_deg_data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Causal feature selection framework for stable soft sensor modeling based on time-delayed cross mapping

Soft sensor modeling plays a crucial role in process monitoring. Causal feature selection can enhance the performance of soft sensor models in industrial applications. However, existing methods ignore two critical characteristics of industrial processes. Firstly, causal relationships between variables always involve time delays, whereas most causal feature selection methods investigate causal relationships in the same time dimension. Secondly, variables in industrial processes are often interdependent, which contradicts the decorrelation assumption of traditional causal inference methods. Consequently, soft sensor models based on existing causal feature selection approaches often lack sufficient accuracy and stability. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a causal feature selection framework based on time-delayed cross mapping. Time-delayed cross mapping employs state space reconstruction to effectively handle interdependent variables in causality analysis, and considers varying causal strength across time delay. Time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TDCCM) is introduced for total causal inference, and time-delayed partial cross mapping (TDPCM) is developed for direct causal inference. Then, in order to achieve automatic feature selection, an objective feature selection strategy is presented. The causal threshold is automatically determined based on the model performance on the validation set, and the causal features are then selected. Two real-world case studies show that TDCCM achieves the highest average performance, while TDPCM improves soft sensor stability and performance in the worst scenario. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/dirge1/TDPCM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Reliability Modeling of Single-Sided Aluminized Polyimide Films during Storage Considering Stress-Induced Degradation Mechanism Transition

Single-sided aluminized polyimide films (SAPF) are widely used in thermal management of aerospace systems. Although the reliability of SAPF in space environments has been thoroughly studied, its reliability in ground environments during storage is always ignored, potentially leading to system failure. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of SAPF in storage environments, focusing on the effects of temperature and relative humidity. Firstly, the relationship between the performance degradation of SAPF and aluminum corrosion is identified. Next, considering the presence of two distinct stages in the influence of temperature on aluminum corrosion, a novel degradation model accounting for the degradation mechanism transition is developed. Additionally, a parameter analysis method is proposed for determining SAPF degradation mechanism based on experimental data. Then, a statistical analysis method incorporating an improved rime optimization algorithm is employed for parameter estimation, and the reliability model is established. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively identifies two distinct stages in the impact of temperature on SAPF performance degradation. Furthermore, the proposed degradation model outperforms traditional degradation models with unchanged degradation mechanism in terms of degradation prediction accuracy, extrapolation capability and robustness, indicating its suitability for describing the degradation pattern of SAPFs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Automated Processing of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence Outputs in Deep Learning Models for Fault Diagnostics of Large Infrastructures

Deep Learning (DL) models processing images to recognize the health state of large infrastructure components can exhibit biases and rely on non-causal shortcuts. eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) can address these issues but manually analyzing explanations generated by XAI techniques is time-consuming and prone to errors. This work proposes a novel framework that combines post-hoc explanations with semi-supervised learning to automatically identify anomalous explanations that deviate from those of correctly classified images and may therefore indicate model abnormal behaviors. This significantly reduces the workload for maintenance decision-makers, who only need to manually reclassify images flagged as having anomalous explanations. The proposed framework is applied to drone-collected images of insulator shells for power grid infrastructure monitoring, considering two different Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), GradCAM explanations and Deep Semi-Supervised Anomaly Detection. The average classification accuracy on two faulty classes is improved by 8% and maintenance operators are required to manually reclassify only 15% of the images. We compare the proposed framework with a state-of-the-art approach based on the faithfulness metric: the experimental results obtained demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves F_1 scores larger than those of the faithfulness-based approach. Additionally, the proposed framework successfully identifies correct classifications that result from non-causal shortcuts, such as the presence of ID tags printed on insulator shells.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Reliability, Resilience and Human Factors Engineering for Trustworthy AI Systems

As AI systems become integral to critical operations across industries and services, ensuring their reliability and safety is essential. We offer a framework that integrates established reliability and resilience engineering principles into AI systems. By applying traditional metrics such as failure rate and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) along with resilience engineering and human reliability analysis, we propose an integrate framework to manage AI system performance, and prevent or efficiently recover from failures. Our work adapts classical engineering methods to AI systems and outlines a research agenda for future technical studies. We apply our framework to a real-world AI system, using system status data from platforms such as openAI, to demonstrate its practical applicability. This framework aligns with emerging global standards and regulatory frameworks, providing a methodology to enhance the trustworthiness of AI systems. Our aim is to guide policy, regulation, and the development of reliable, safe, and adaptable AI technologies capable of consistent performance in real-world environments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

RmGPT: A Foundation Model with Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis in Rotating Machinery

In industry, the reliability of rotating machinery is critical for production efficiency and safety. Current methods of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) often rely on task-specific models, which face significant challenges in handling diverse datasets with varying signal characteristics, fault modes and operating conditions. Inspired by advancements in generative pretrained models, we propose RmGPT, a unified model for diagnosis and prognosis tasks. RmGPT introduces a novel generative token-based framework, incorporating Signal Tokens, Prompt Tokens, Time-Frequency Task Tokens and Fault Tokens to handle heterogeneous data within a unified model architecture. We leverage self-supervised learning for robust feature extraction and introduce a next signal token prediction pretraining strategy, alongside efficient prompt learning for task-specific adaptation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RmGPT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, achieving near-perfect accuracy in diagnosis tasks and exceptionally low errors in prognosis tasks. Notably, RmGPT excels in few-shot learning scenarios, achieving 82\% accuracy in 16-class one-shot experiments, highlighting its adaptability and robustness. This work establishes RmGPT as a powerful PHM foundation model for rotating machinery, advancing the scalability and generalizability of PHM solutions. \textbf{Code is available at: https://github.com/Pandalin98/RmGPT.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Framework for the Evaluation of Network Reliability Under Periodic Demand

In this paper, we study network reliability in relation to a periodic time-dependent utility function that reflects the system's functional performance. When an anomaly occurs, the system incurs a loss of utility that depends on the anomaly's timing and duration. We analyze the long-term average utility loss by considering exponential anomalies' inter-arrival times and general distributions of maintenance duration. We show that the expected utility loss converges in probability to a simple form. We then extend our convergence results to more general distributions of anomalies' inter-arrival times and to particular families of non-periodic utility functions. To validate our results, we use data gathered from a cellular network consisting of 660 base stations and serving over 20k users. We demonstrate the quasi-periodic nature of users' traffic and the exponential distribution of the anomalies' inter-arrival times, allowing us to apply our results and provide reliability scores for the network. We also discuss the convergence speed of the long-term average utility loss, the interplay between the different network's parameters, and the impact of non-stationarity on our convergence results.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2018

Performance Degradation Assessment for Electrical Machines Based on SOM and Hybrid DHMM

Aimed at the timely detection of the degradation of electrical machines and the organization of active maintenance, numerous studies on performance degradation assessment have been conducted. However, previous research still suffers from two deficiencies: 1) determining the relevant relationship among diverse machine degradation states and assessing the specific degree of deterioration and 2) determining the evolutionary relationships among degradation and failure modes and assessing the failure modes corresponding to different degradation scenarios. To address these two deficiencies, a novel performance degradation assessment method is proposed. First, the self-organizing feature map (SOM) network is used to mine the latent degradation states of electrical machines. Second, the latent states are quantified according to established statistical health indexes, and by analyzing the distribution of extracted health indexes corresponding to different degradation states, the relevant transition relationships of the valid degradation states and the final evolving fault types are determined. Third, a hybrid discrete HMM is developed to fully describe the transition process among different states and assess the degradation scenario of a machine in an online manner. The results of a real application of an electric point machine show that the proposed method can identify valid degradation states and obtain a superior assessment accuracy.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2018

Degradation Detection Method for Railway Point Machines

Point machines (PMs) are used for switching and locking railway turnouts, and are considered one of the most critical elements of a railway signal system. The failure of the point mechanism directly affects the operation of the railway and may cause serious safety accidents. Hence, there is a need for early detection of the anomalies in PMs. From normal operation to complete failure, the machine usually undergoes a series of degradation states. If the degradation states are detected in time, maintenance can be organized in advance to prevent the malfunction. This paper presents a degradation detection method that can effectively mine and identify the degradation state of the PM. First, power data is processed to obtain the feature set that can describe the PM characteristics effectively. Then, a clustering analysis of the feature set is carried out by self-organizing feature-mapping network, and various degradation states are mined. Finally, the optimized support vector machine is used to build the state classifier to identify the degradation state of the PM. The experimental results obtained with the Siemens S700K PM show that the proposed method could not only mine the effective degradation states, but also obtain high identification accuracy.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2016

A complex network theory approach for optimizing contamination warning sensor location in water distribution networks

Drinking water for human health and well-being is crucial. Accidental and intentional water contamination can pose great danger to consumers. Optimal design of a system that can quickly detect the presence of contamination in a water distribution network is very challenging for technical and operational reasons. However, on the one hand improvement in chemical and biological sensor technology has created the possibility of designing efficient contamination detection systems. On the other hand, methods and tools from complex network theory, which was primarily the domain of mathematicians and physicists, provide analytical output for engineers to design, optimize, operate, and maintain complex network systems such as power grids, water distribution networks, telecommunication systems, internet, roads, supply chains, traffic and transportation systems. In this work, we develop a new modeling approach for the optimal placement of sensors for contamination detection in a water distribution network. The approach originally combines classical optimization and complex systems theory.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2012

A Multi-State Power Model for Adequacy Assessment of Distributed Generation via Universal Generating Function

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

cs.OH↗

arXiv2012

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels.

cs.PF↗