arXiv subjects

Eoin Ó Colgáin

Publications and source records attributed to Eoin Ó Colgáin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Anisotropic Distance Ladder in Pantheon+ Supernovae

We decompose Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) in hemispheres on the sky finding angular variations up to $4$ km/s/Mpc in the Hubble constant $H_0$ both in the SH0ES redshift range $0.0233 < z < 0.15$ and in extended redshift ranges. The variations are driven largely by variations in absolute magnitude from SN in Cepheid hosts, but are reinforced by SN in the Hubble flow. $H_0$ is larger in a hemisphere encompassing the CMB dipole direction. The variations we see exceed the errors on the recent SH0ES determination, $H_0 = 73.04 \pm 1.04$ km/s/Mpc, but are not large enough to explain early versus late Universe discrepancies in the Hubble constant. Nevertheless, the Cepheid-SN distance ladder is anisotropic at current precision. The anisotropy may be due to a breakdown in the Cosmological Principle, or mundanely due to a statistical fluctuation in a small sample of SN in Cepheid host galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

High Redshift $Λ$CDM Cosmology: To Bin or not to Bin?

We construct observational Hubble $H(z)$ and angular diameter distance $D_{A}(z)$ mock data with baseline Planck $Λ$CDM input values, before fitting the $Λ$CDM model to study evolution of probability density functions (PDFs) of best fit cosmological parameters $(H_0, Ω_m, Ω_k)$ across redshift bins. We find that PDF peaks only agree with the input parameters in low redshift ($z \lesssim 1$) bins for $H(z)$ and $D_{A}(z)$ constraints, and in all redshift bins when $H(z)$ and $D_{A}(z)$ constraints are combined. When input parameters are not recovered, we observe that PDFs exhibit non-Gaussian tails towards larger $Ω_m$ values and shifts to (less pronounced) peaks at smaller $Ω_m$ values. This flattening of the PDF is expected as $H(z)$ and $D_{A}(z)$ observations only constrain combinations of cosmological parameters at higher redshifts, so uniform PDFs are expected. Our analysis leaves us with a choice to bin high redshift data in the knowledge that we may be unlikely to recover Planck values, or conduct full sample analysis that biases $Λ$CDM inferences to the lower redshift Universe.

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arXiv2023

Is the Observable Universe Consistent with the Cosmological Principle?

The Cosmological Principle (CP) -- the notion that the Universe is spatially isotropic and homogeneous on large scales -- underlies a century of progress in cosmology. It is conventionally formulated through the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmologies as the spacetime metric, and culminates in the successful and highly predictive $Λ$-Cold-Dark-Matter ($Λ$CDM) model. Yet, tensions have emerged within the $Λ$CDM model, most notably a statistically significant discrepancy in the value of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. Since the notion of cosmic expansion determined by a single parameter is intimately tied to the CP, implications of the $H_0$ tension may extend beyond $Λ$CDM to the CP itself. This review surveys current observational hints for deviations from the expectations of the CP, highlighting synergies and disagreements that warrant further study. Setting aside the debate about individual large structures, potential deviations from the CP include variations of cosmological parameters on the sky, discrepancies in the cosmic dipoles, and mysterious alignments in quasar polarizations and galaxy spins. While it is possible that a host of observational systematics are impacting results, it is equally plausible that precision cosmology may have outgrown the FLRW paradigm, an extremely pragmatic but non-fundamental symmetry assumption.

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arXiv2022

Revealing Intrinsic Flat $Λ$CDM Biases with Standardizable Candles

Emerging high redshift cosmological probes, in particular quasars (QSOs), show a preference for larger matter densities, $Ω_{m} \approx 1$, within the flat $Λ$CDM framework. Here, using the Risaliti-Lusso relation for standardizable QSOs, we demonstrate that the QSOs recover the \textit{same} Planck-$Λ$CDM Universe as Type Ia supernovae (SN), $Ω_m \approx 0.3$ at lower redshifts $ 0 < z \lesssim 0.7$, before transitioning to an Einstein-de Sitter Universe ($Ω_m =1$) at higher redshifts $z \gtrsim 1$. We illustrate the same trend, namely increasing $Ω_{m}$ and decreasing $H_0$ with redshift, in SN but poor statistics prevent a definitive statement. We explain physically why the trend is expected in the flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, illustrate the intrinsic bias and non-Gaussian tails with mock Pantheon data, and identify a similar trend in BAO below $z=1$. Our results highlight an intrinsic bias in the flat $Λ$CDM Universe, whereby $Ω_m$ increases, $H_0$ decreases and $S_8$ increases with effective redshift, thus providing a new perspective on $Λ$CDM tensions; even in a Planck-$Λ$CDM Universe the current tensions might have been expected.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

On Larger $H_0$ Values in the CMB Dipole Direction

On the assumption that quasars (QSO) and gamma-ray bursts (GRB) represent \textit{standardisable candles}, we provide evidence that the Hubble constant $H_0$ adopts larger values in hemispheres aligned with the CMB dipole direction. If substantiated, this trend signals a departure from FLRW cosmology. In particular, QSOs show a definite trend, whereas our findings in GRBs are consistent with an isotropic Universe, but we show in a sample of GRBs calibrated with Type Ia supernovae (SN) that this conclusion may change as one focuses on GRBs more closely (mis)aligned with the CMB dipole direction. The statistical significance in QSOs alone is $\gtrsim 2 σ$ and when combined with similar trends in strong lensing, Type Ia SN and calibrated GRBs, this increases to $\sim 3 σ$. Our findings are consistent with reported discrepancies in the cosmic dipole and anisotropies in galaxy cluster scaling relations. The reported variations in $H_0$ across the sky suggest that Hubble tension may be a symptom of a deeper cosmological malaise.

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arXiv2022

Is Local $H_0$ At Odds With Dark Energy EFT?

Local $H_0$ determinations currently fall in a window between $H_0 \sim 70$ km/s/Mpc (TRGB) and $H_0 \sim 76$ km/s/Mpc (Tully-Fisher). In contrast, BAO data calibrated in an early $Λ$CDM universe are largely consistent with Planck-$Λ$CDM, $H_0 \sim 67.5$ km/s/Mpc. Employing a generic two parameter family of evolving equations of state (EoS) for dark energy (DE) $w_{\textrm{DE}}(z)$ and mock BAO data, we demonstrate that if i) $w_{\textrm{DE}}(z=0) < -1$ and ii) integrated DE density less than $Λ$CDM, then $H_0$ increases. EoS that violate these conditions at best lead to modest $H_0$ increases within $1 σ$. Tellingly, Quintessence and K-essence satisfy neither condition, whereas coupled Quintessence can only satisfy ii). Beyond these seminal DE Effective Field Theories (EFTs), we turn to explicit examples. Working model agnostically in an expansion in powers of redshift $z$, we show that Brans-Dicke/$f(R)$ and Kinetic Gravity Braiding models within the Horndeski class can lead to marginal and modest increases in $H_0$, respectively. We confirm that as far as increasing $H_0$ is concerned, no DE EFT model can outperform the phenomenological two parameter family of the DE models. Evidently, the late universe may no longer be large enough to accommodate $H_0$, BAO and DE described by EFT.

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arXiv2022

Probing the Anisotropic Universe with Gravitational Waves

Modern cosmology rests on the working assumption that the Universe is isotropic and homogeneous at large scales. Here, we document a number of anomalous observations pointing to an anisotropic Universe in a direction consistent with the CMB dipole. If physical, this should be confirmed by any cosmological probe with sufficient data quality. To that end, we perform the first hemispherical decomposition of bright and dark standard siren $H_0$ determinations, finding that the maximum of the $H_0$ posterior is larger in the CMB dipole direction for dark sirens, but including the bright siren posterior reverses this conclusion. As may be expected, the limited number of GW observations is consistent with an isotropic Universe, but this can change going forward. It is imperative to repeat these tests as GW sources become more numerous and better localised.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Hints of FLRW Breakdown from Supernovae

A 10\% difference in the scale for the Hubble parameter constitutes a clear problem for cosmology. Here, considering angular distribution of Type Ia supernovae (SN) within the Pantheon compilation and working within flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we observe a correlation between higher $H_0$ and the CMB dipole direction, confirming our previous results for strongly-lensed quasars \cite{Krishnan:2021dyb}. Concretely, we record a $\sim 1$ km/s/Mpc variation in $H_0$ at antipodal points on the sky within the Pantheon sample, which is evident in the Low $z$ subsample ($z \lesssim 0.075$) and gets enhanced by higher redshift SN. Our work raises the possibility that we may be at the precision required to probe anisotropic Hubble expansions, while providing a concrete prediction for future inferences of $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Does Hubble Tension Signal a Breakdown in FLRW Cosmology?

The tension between early and late Universe probes of the Hubble constant has motivated various new FLRW cosmologies. Here, we reanalyse the Hubble tension with a recent age of the Universe constraint. This allows us to restrict attention to matter and a dark energy sector that we treat without assuming a specific model. Assuming analyticity of the Hubble parameter $H(z)$, and a generic low redshift modification to flat $Λ$CDM, we find that low redshift data ($z \lesssim 2.5$) and well-motivated priors only permit a dark energy sector close to the cosmological constant $Λ$. This restriction rules out late Universe modifications within FLRW. We show that early Universe physics that alters the sound horizon can yield an upper limit of $H_0 \sim 71 \pm 1$ km/s/Mpc. Since various local determinations may be converging to $H_0 \sim 73$ km/s/Mpc, a breakdown of the FLRW framework is a plausible resolution. We outline how future data, in particular strongly lensed quasar data, could also provide further confirmations of such a resolution.

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arXiv2021

A Critique of Holographic Dark Energy

Observations restrict the parameter space of Holographic Dark Energy (HDE) so that a turning point in the Hubble parameter $H(z)$ is inevitable. Concretely, cosmic microwave background (CMB), baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Type Ia supernovae (SNE) data put the turning point in the future, but removing SNE results in an observational turning point at positive redshift. From the perspective of theory, not only does the turning point violate the Null Energy Condition (NEC), but as we argue, it may be interpreted as an evolution of the Hubble constant $H_0$ with redshift, which is at odds with the very FLRW framework within which data has been analysed. Tellingly, neither of these are problems for the flat $Λ$CDM model, and a direct comparison of fits further disfavours HDE relative to flat $Λ$CDM.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Can dark energy be dynamical?

We highlight shortcomings of the dynamical dark energy (DDE) paradigm. For parametric models with equation of state (EOS), $w(z) = w_0 + w_a f(z)$ for a given function of redshift $f(z)$, we show that the errors in $w_a$ are sensitive to $f(z)$: if $f(z)$ increases quickly with redshift $z$, then errors in $w_a$ are smaller, and vice versa. As a result, parametric DDE models suffer from a degree of arbitrariness and focusing too much on one model runs the risk that DDE may be overlooked. In particular, we show the ubiquitous Chevallier-Polarski-Linder model is one of the least sensitive to DDE. We also comment on ``wiggles" in $w(z)$ uncovered in non-parametric reconstructions. Concretely, we isolate the most relevant Fourier modes in the wiggles, model them and fit them back to the original data to confirm the wiggles at $\lesssim2σ$. We delve into the assumptions going into the reconstruction and argue that the assumed correlations, which clearly influence the wiggles, place strong constraints on field theory models of DDE.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Lost in the Log-Polynomial Expansion: Comment on arXiv:2101.08278

In [1] we highlighted the fact that the log polynomial expansion employed in Nature Astron. 3, no.3, 272-277 (2019) [2] is a poor approximation to flat $Λ$CDM, so using it to infer deviations from flat $Λ$CDM is not well-motivated. The "orthogonalized logarithmic polynomials" recently presented in arXiv:2101.08278 [3] are an attempt to respond to the earlier criticism [1]. Here we demonstrate that this new technique [3] - interesting though it may be - fails to address the fundamental problem raised in [1]. Unfortunately, the claim made in [2] may still be lost in the expansion.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

On Problems with Cosmography in Cosmic Dark Ages

Quasars show considerable promise as standard candles in a high-redshift window beyond Type Ia supernovae. Recently, Risaliti, Lusso \& collaborators \cite{Risaliti:2018reu, Lusso:2019akb, Lusso:2020pdb} have succeeded in producing a high redshift Hubble diagram ($ z \lesssim 7$) that supports "a trend whereby the Hubble diagram of quasars is well reproduced by the standard flat $Λ$CDM model up to $z \sim 1.5-2$, but strong deviations emerge at higher redshifts". This conclusion hinges upon a log polynomial expansion for the luminosity distance. In this note, we demonstrate that this expansion (or "improvements" thereof) typically can only be trusted up to $z \sim 1.5-2$. As a result, a breakdown in the validity of the expansion may be misinterpreted as a (phantom) deviation from flat $Λ$CDM. We further illustrate the problem through mock data examples.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Running Hubble Tension and a H0 Diagnostic

Hubble tension is routinely presented as a mismatch between the Hubble constant $H_0$ determined locally and a value inferred from the flat $Λ$CDM cosmology. In essence, the tension boils down to a disagreement between two numbers. Here, assuming the tension is cosmological in origin, we predict that within flat $Λ$CDM there should be other inferred values of $H_0$, and that a "running of $H_0$ with redshift" can be expected. These additional determinations of $H_0$ may be traced to a difference between the effective equation of state (EoS) of the Universe within the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmology framework and the current standard model. We introduce a diagnostic that flags such a running of $H_0$.

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arXiv2021

Hubble Sinks In The Low-Redshift Swampland

Local determinations of the Hubble constant $H_0$ favour a higher value than Planck based on CMB and $Λ$CDM. Through a model-independent expansion, we show that low redshift ($z \lesssim 0.7$) data comprising baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), cosmic chronometers and Type Ia supernovae has a preference for Quintessence models that lower $H_0$ relative to $Λ$CDM. In addition, we confirm that an exponential coupling to dark matter cannot alter this conclusion in the same redshift range. Our results leave open the possibility that a coupling in the matter-dominated epoch, potentially even in the dark ages, may yet save $H_0$ from sinking in the string theory Swampland.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmography and flat $Λ$CDM tensions at high redshift

Risaliti, Lusso \& collaborators have constructed a high-redshift Hubble diagram of supernovae (SNe); quasars (QSO) and gamma-ray bursts (GRB) that shows a "$\sim 4 \, σ$ tension with the $Λ$CDM model" based on a log polynomial cosmographic expansion (Risaliti et.al 2018, Lusso et.al 2019). In this work, we demonstrate that the log polynomial expansion generically fails to recover flat $Λ$CDM beyond $z \sim 2$, thus undermining the $\sim 4 \, σ$ tension claim. Moreover, through direct fits of both the flat $Λ$CDM and the log polynomial model to the SNe+QSO+GRB dataset, we confirm that the flat $Λ$CDM model is preferred. Ultimately, we trace the tension to the QSO data and show that a best-fit of the flat $Λ$CDM model to the QSO data leads to a flat $Λ$CDM Universe with no dark energy within $1 \, σ$. This marks an irreconcilable tension between the Risaliti-Lusso QSOs and flat $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Is there an early Universe solution to Hubble tension?

We consider a low redshift $(z<0.7)$ cosmological dataset comprising megamasers, cosmic chronometers, type Ia SNe and BAO, which we bin according to their redshift. For each bin, we read the value of $H_0$ by fitting directly to the flat $Λ$CDM model. Doing so, we find that $H_0$ descends with redshift, allowing one to fit a line with a \textit{non-zero} slope of statistical significance $2.1 \, σ$. Our analysis rests on the use of cosmic chronometers to break a degeneracy in BAO data and it will be imperative to revisit this feature as data improves. Nevertheless, our results provide the first independent indication of the descending trend reported by the H0LiCOW collaboration. If substantiated going forward, early Universe solutions to the Hubble tension will struggle explaining this trend.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined III: $f σ_8$ and $S_8$

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides a wonderful fit to current cosmological data, but a few tensions and anomalies became statistically significant with the latest data analyses. While these anomalies could be due to the presence of systematic errors in the experiments, they could also indicate the need for new physics beyond the standard model. In this Letter of Interest we focus on the tension of the Planck data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $Ω_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($σ_8,fσ_8$). We list a few interesting models for solving this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit with a single model a full array of data and not just one parameter at a time.

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