arXiv subjects

Erhan Bayraktar

Publications and source records attributed to Erhan Bayraktar.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Optimal Investment to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown

We determine the optimal investment strategy in a Black-Scholes financial market to minimize the so-called {\it probability of drawdown}, namely, the probability that the value of an investment portfolio reaches some fixed proportion of its maximum value to date. We assume that the portfolio is subject to a payout that is a deterministic function of its value, as might be the case for an endowment fund paying at a specified rate, for example, at a constant rate or at a rate that is proportional to the fund's value.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Arbitrage, hedging and utility maximization using semi-static trading strategies with American options

We consider a financial market where stocks are available for dynamic trading, and European and American options are available for static trading (semi-static trading strategies). We assume that the American options are infinitely divisible, and can only be bought but not sold. In the first part of the paper, we work within the framework without model ambiguity. We first get the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP). Using the FTAP, we get the dualities for the hedging prices of European and American options. Based on the hedging dualities, we also get the duality for the utility maximization. In the second part of the paper, we consider the market which admits non-dominated model uncertainty. We first establish the hedging result, and then using the hedging duality we further get the FTAP. Due to the technical difficulty stemming from the non-dominancy of the probability measure set, we use a discretization technique and apply the minimax theorem.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2015

Weak reflection principle for Lévy processes

In this paper, we develop a new mathematical technique which allows us to express the joint distribution of a Markov process and its running maximum (or minimum) through the marginal distribution of the process itself. This technique is an extension of the classical reflection principle for Brownian motion, and it is obtained by weakening the assumptions of symmetry required for the classical reflection principle to work. We call this method a weak reflection principle and show that it provides solutions to many problems for which the classical reflection principle is typically used. In addition, unlike the classical reflection principle, the new method works for a much larger class of stochastic processes which, in particular, do not possess any strong symmetries. Here, we review the existing results which establish the weak reflection principle for a large class of time-homogeneous diffusions on a real line and then proceed to extend this method to the Lévy processes with one-sided jumps (subject to some admissibility conditions). Finally, we demonstrate the applications of the weak reflection principle in financial mathematics, computational methods and inverse problems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Transaction costs and Model uncertainty

We prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a discrete time financial market where trading is subject to proportional transaction cost and the asset price dynamic is modeled by a family of probability measures, possibly non-dominated. Using a backward-forward scheme, we show that when the market consists of a money market account and a single stock, no-arbitrage in a quasi-sure sense is equivalent to the existence of a suitable family of consistent price systems. We also show that when the market consists of multiple dynamically traded assets and satisfies \emph{efficient friction}, strict no-arbitrage in a quasi-sure sense is equivalent to the existence of a suitable family of strictly consistent price systems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Minimizing the Expected Lifetime Spent in Drawdown under Proportional Consumption

We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed proportion of maximum wealth. We compare the optimal investment strategy with those for three related goal-seeking problems and learn that the individual is myopic in her investing behavior, as expected from other goal-seeking research.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2015

On a Stopping Game in continuous time

We consider a zero-sum continuous time stopping game in which the pay-off is revealed in the maximum of the two stopping times instead of the minimum, which is the case in Dynkin games.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Doubly Reflected BSDEs with Integrable Parameters and Related Dynkin Games

We study a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with integrable parameters and the related Dynkin game. When the lower obstacle $L$ and the upper obstacle $U$ of the equation are completely separated, we construct a unique solution of the doubly reflected BSDE by pasting local solutions and show that the $Y-$component of the unique solution represents the value process of the corresponding Dynkin game under $g-$evaluation, a nonlinear expectation induced by BSDEs with the same generator $g$ as the doubly reflected BSDE concerned. In particular, the first time when process $Y $ meets $L$ and the first time when process $Y $ meets $U$ form a saddle point of the Dynkin game.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

On an Optimal Stopping Problem of an Insider

We consider the optimal stopping problem $v^{(\eps)}:=\sup_{τ\in\mathcal{T}_{0,T}}\mathbb{E}B_{(τ-\eps)^+}$ posed by Shiryaev at the International Conference on Advanced Stochastic Optimization Problems organized by the Steklov Institute of Mathematics in September 2012. Here $T>0$ is a fixed time horizon, $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ is the Brownian motion, $\eps\in[0,T]$ is a constant, and $\mathcal{T}_{\eps,T}$ is the set of stopping times taking values in $[\eps,T]$. The solution of this problem is characterized by a path dependent reflected backward stochastic differential equations, from which the continuity of $\eps \to v^{(\eps)}$ follows. For large enough $\eps$, we obtain an explicit expression for $v^{(\eps)}$ and for small $\eps$ we have lower and upper bounds. The main result of the paper is the asymptotics of $v^{(\eps)}$ as $\eps\searrow 0$. As a byproduct, we also obtain Lévy's modulus of continuity result in the $L^1$ sense.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

On hedging American options under model uncertainty

We consider as given a discrete time financial market with a risky asset and options written on that asset and determine both the sub- and super-hedging prices of an American option in the model independent framework of ArXiv:1305.6008. We obtain the duality of results for the sub- and super-hedging prices. For the sub-hedging prices we discuss whether the sup and inf in the dual representation can be exchanged (a counter example shows that this is not true in general). For the super-hedging prices we discuss several alternative definitions and argue why our choice is more reasonable. Then assuming that the path space is compact, we construct a discretization of the path space and demonstrate the convergence of the hedging prices at the optimal rate. The latter result would be useful for numerical computation of the hedging prices. Our results generalize those of ArXiv:1304.3574 to the case when static positions in (finitely many) European options can be used in the hedging portfolio.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

On Arbitrage and Duality under Model Uncertainty and Portfolio Constraints

We consider the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and hedging prices of options under non-dominated model uncertainty and portfolio constrains in discrete time. We first show that no arbitrage holds if and only if there exists some family of probability measures such that any admissible portfolio value process is a local super-martingale under these measures. We also get the non-dominated optional decomposition with constraints. From this decomposition, we get duality of the super-hedging prices of European options, as well as the sub- and super-hedging prices of American options. Finally, we get the FTAP and duality of super-hedging prices in a market where stocks are traded dynamically and options are traded statically.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Purchasing Term Life Insurance to Reach a Bequest Goal: Time-Dependent Case

We consider the problem of how an individual can use term life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal, an important problem in financial planning. We assume that the individual buys instantaneous term life insurance with a premium payable continuously. By contrast with Bayraktar et al. (2014), we allow the force of mortality to vary with time, which, as we show, greatly complicates the problem.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Byzantine Fault Tolerant Distributed Quickest Change Detection

We introduce and solve the problem of Byzantine fault tolerant distributed quickest change detection in both continuous and discrete time setups. In this problem, multiple sensors sequentially observe random signals from the environment and send their observations to a control center that will determine whether there is a change in the statistical behavior of the observations. We assume that the signals are independent and identically distributed across sensors. An unknown subset of sensors are compromised and will send arbitrarily modified and even artificially generated signals to the control center. It is shown that the performance of the the so-called CUSUM statistic, which is optimal when all sensors are honest, will be significantly degraded in the presence of even a single dishonest sensor. In particular, instead of in a logarithmically the detection delay grows linearly with the average run length (ARL) to false alarm. To mitigate such a performance degradation, we propose a fully distributed low complexity detection scheme. We show that the proposed scheme can recover the log scaling. We also propose a centralized group-wise scheme that can further reduce the detection delay.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Quickest Detection with Discretely Controlled Observations

We study a continuous time Bayesian quickest detection problem in which observation times are a scarce resource. The agent, limited to making a finite number of discrete observations, must adaptively decide his observation strategy to minimize detection delay and the probability of false alarm. Under two different models of observation rights, we establish the existence of optimal strategies, and formulate an algorithmic approach to the problem via jump operators. We describe algorithms for these problems, and illustrate them with some numerical results. As the number of observation rights tends to infinity, we also show convergence to the classical continuous observation problem of Shiryaev.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Comparing the $G$-Normal Distribution to its Classical Counterpart

In one dimension, the theory of the $G$-normal distribution is well-developed, and many results from the classical setting have a nonlinear counterpart. Significant challenges remain in multiple dimensions, and some of what has already been discovered is quite nonintuitive. By answering several classically-inspired questions concerning independence, covariance uncertainty, and behavior under certain linear operations, we continue to highlight the fascinating range of unexpected attributes of the multidimensional $G$-normal distribution.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin Under Ambiguity Aversion

We determine the optimal robust investment strategy of an individual who targets at a given rate of consumption and seeks to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin when she does not have perfect confidence in the drift of the risky asset. Using stochastic control, we characterize the value function as the unique classical solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, obtain feedback forms for the optimal investment and drift distortion, and discuss their dependence on various model parameters. In analyzing the HJB equation, we establish the existence and uniqueness of viscosity solution using Perron's method, and then upgrade regularity by working with an equivalent convex problem obtained via the Cole-Hopf transformation. We show the original value function may lose convexity for a class of parameters and the Isaacs condition may fail. Numerical examples are also included to illustrate our results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Stochastic Perron's Method for the Probability of lifetime ruin problem under transaction costs

We apply stochastic Perron's method to a singular control problem where an individual targets at a given consumption rate, invests in a risky financial market in which trading is subject to proportional transaction costs, and seeks to minimize her probability of lifetime ruin. Without relying on the dynamic programming principle (DPP), we characterize the value function as the unique viscosity solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) variational inequality. We also provide a complete proof of the comparison principle which is the main assumption of stochastic Perron's method.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

A note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under model uncertainty

We show that the results of ArXiv:1305.6008 on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (\emph{hedging options}) are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of \emph{robust no-arbitrage} which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are \emph{non-redundant}. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

Purchasing Life Insurance to Reach a Bequest Goal

We determine how an individual can use life insurance to meet a bequest goal. We assume that the individual's consumption is met by an income, such as a pension, life annuity, or Social Security. Then, we consider the wealth that the individual wants to devote towards heirs (separate from any wealth related to the afore-mentioned income) and find the optimal strategy for buying life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal. We consider life insurance purchased by a single premium, with and without cash value available. We also consider irreversible and reversible life insurance purchased by a continuously paid premium; one can view the latter as (instantaneous) term life insurance.

q-fin.PM↗