arXiv subjects

Eric A. Cator

Publications and source records attributed to Eric A. Cator.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Extreme value distributions of peak loads for non-residential customer segments

Electrical grid congestion is a growing challenge in Europe, driving the need for accurate prediction of load, particularly of peak load. Non-time-resolved models of peak load offer the advantages of simplicity and compactness, and among them, Velander's formula (VF) is a traditional method that has been used for decades. Moreover, VF can be adapted into a quantile VF, which learns a truncated cumulative distribution function of peak load based on electricity consumption. This paper proposes a mathematical model based on extreme value theory to characterize the probability distribution of peak load for large non-residential customers. The model underpins the quantile VF as demonstrated through multiple quantile regression and reduces its representation to just four parameters without sacrificing predictive performance. Moreover, using maximum likelihood estimation and the likelihood ratio test, we validate that the probability distribution of peak load of analysed groups belongs to the heavy-tailed Fr\'echet class.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Attractiveness of Brownian queues in tandem

Consider a sequence of n bi-infinite and stationary Brownian queues in tandem. Assume that the arrival process entering in the first queue is a zero mean ergodic process. We prove that the departure process from the n-th queue converges in distribution to a Brownian motion as n goes to infinity. In particular this implies that the Brownian motion is an attractive invariant measure for the Brownian queueing operator. Our proof exploits the relationship between the Brownian queues in tandem and the last-passage Brownian percolation model, developing a coupling technique in the second setting. The result is also interpreted in the related context of Brownian particles acting under one sided reflection.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Adaptive Critical Value for Constrained Likelihood Ratio Testing

We present a new way of testing ordered hypotheses against all alternatives which overpowers the classical approach both in simplicity and statistical power. Our new method tests the constrained likelihood ratio statistic against the quantile of one and only one chi-squared random variable with a data-dependent degrees of freedom instead of a mixture of chi-squares. Our new test is proved to have a valid finite-sample significance level $α$ and provides more power especially for sparse alternatives (those with a few or moderate number of null constraints violations) in comparison to the classical approach. Our method is also easier to use than the classical approach which requires to calculate or simulate a set of complicated weights. Two special cases are considered with more details, namely the case of testing orthants $μ_1<0, \cdots, μ_n<0$ and the isotonic case of testing $μ_1<μ_2<μ_3$ against all alternatives. Contours of the difference in power are shown for these examples showing the interest of our new approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2012

Central limit theorem and influence function for the MCD estimators at general multivariate distributions

We define the minimum covariance determinant functionals for multivariate location and scatter through trimming functions and establish their existence at any multivariate distribution. We provide a precise characterization including a separating ellipsoid property and prove that the functionals are continuous. Moreover, we establish asymptotic normality for both the location and covariance estimator and derive the influence function. These results are obtained in a very general multivariate setting.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

Asymptotics: Particles, Processes and Inverse Problems. Festschrift for Piet Groeneboom

In September 2006, Piet Groeneboom officially retired as professor of statistics at Delft University of Technology and the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. He did so by delivering his farewell lecture `Summa Cogitatio' ([42] in Piet's publication list) in the Aula of the university in Delft. To celebrate Piet's impressive contributions to statistics and probability, the workshop `Asymptotics: particles, processes and inverse problems' was held from July 10 until July 14, 2006, at the Lorentz Center in Leiden. Many leading researchers in the fields of probability and statistics gave talks at this workshop, and it became a memorable event for all who attended, including the organizers and Piet himself. This volume serves as a Festschrift for Piet Groeneboom. It contains papers that were presented at the workshop as well as some other contributions, and it represents the state of the art in the areas in statistics and probability where Piet has been (and still is) most active. Furthermore, a short CV of Piet Groeneboom and a list of his publications are included.

math.ST↗

arXiv2005

On the testability of the CAR assumption

In recent years a popular nonparametric model for coarsened data is an assumption on the coarsening mechanism called coarsening at random (CAR). It has been conjectured in several papers that this assumption cannot be tested by the data, that is, the assumption does not restrict the possible distributions of the data. In this paper we will show that this conjecture is not always true; an example will be current status data. We will also give conditions when the conjecture is true, and in doing so, we will introduce a generalized version of the CAR assumption. As an illustration, we retrieve the well-known result that the CAR assumption cannot be tested in the case of right-censored data.

math.ST↗