arXiv subjects

Eric Agol

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Agol.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2011

SDSS-III: Massive Spectroscopic Surveys of the Distant Universe, the Milky Way Galaxy, and Extra-Solar Planetary Systems

Building on the legacy of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-I and II), SDSS-III is a program of four spectroscopic surveys on three scientific themes: dark energy and cosmological parameters, the history and structure of the Milky Way, and the population of giant planets around other stars. In keeping with SDSS tradition, SDSS-III will provide regular public releases of all its data, beginning with SDSS DR8 (which occurred in Jan 2011). This paper presents an overview of the four SDSS-III surveys. BOSS will measure redshifts of 1.5 million massive galaxies and Lya forest spectra of 150,000 quasars, using the BAO feature of large scale structure to obtain percent-level determinations of the distance scale and Hubble expansion rate at z<0.7 and at z~2.5. SEGUE-2, which is now completed, measured medium-resolution (R=1800) optical spectra of 118,000 stars in a variety of target categories, probing chemical evolution, stellar kinematics and substructure, and the mass profile of the dark matter halo from the solar neighborhood to distances of 100 kpc. APOGEE will obtain high-resolution (R~30,000), high signal-to-noise (S/N>100 per resolution element), H-band (1.51-1.70 micron) spectra of 10^5 evolved, late-type stars, measuring separate abundances for ~15 elements per star and creating the first high-precision spectroscopic survey of all Galactic stellar populations (bulge, bar, disks, halo) with a uniform set of stellar tracers and spectral diagnostics. MARVELS will monitor radial velocities of more than 8000 FGK stars with the sensitivity and cadence (10-40 m/s, ~24 visits per star) needed to detect giant planets with periods up to two years, providing an unprecedented data set for understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of giant planet systems. (Abridged)

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arXiv2011

Kepler and Ground-based Transits of the Exo-Neptune HAT-P-11b

We analyze 26 archival Kepler transits of the exo-Neptune HAT-P-11b, supplemented by ground-based transits observed in the blue (B-band) and near-IR (J-band). Both the planet and host star are smaller than previously believed; our analysis yields Rp=4.31 +/-0.06 Earth-radii, and Rs = 0.683 +/-0.009 solar radii, both about 3-sigma smaller than the discovery values. Our ground-based transit data at wavelengths bracketing the Kepler bandpass serve to check the wavelength dependence of stellar limb darkening, and the J-band transit provides a precise and independent constraint on the transit duration. Both the limb darkening and transit duration from our ground-based data are consistent with the new Kepler values for the system parameters. Our smaller radius for the planet implies that its gaseous envelope can be less extensive than previously believed, being very similar to the H-He envelope of GJ436b and Kepler-4b. HAT-P-11 is an active star, and signatures of star spot crossings are ubiquitous in the Kepler transit data. We develop and apply a methodology to correct the planetary radius for the presence of both crossed and uncrossed star spots. Star spot crossings are concentrated at phases -0.002 and +0.006. This is consistent with inferences from Rossiter-McLaughlin measurements that the planet transits nearly perpendicular to the stellar equator. We identify the dominant phases of star spot crossings with active latitudes on the star, and we infer that the stellar rotational pole is inclined at about 12 +/-5 degrees to the plane of the sky. We point out that precise transit measurements over long durations could in principle allow us to construct a stellar Butterfly diagram, to probe the cyclic evolution of magnetic activity on this active K-dwarf star.

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arXiv2011

A Spitzer Transmission Spectrum for the Exoplanet GJ 436b, Evidence for Stellar Variability, and Constraints on Dayside Flux Variations

In this paper we describe a uniform analysis of eight transits and eleven secondary eclipses of the extrasolar planet GJ 436b obtained in the 3.6, 4.5, and 8.0 micron bands using the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope between UT 2007 June 29 and UT 2009 Feb 4. We find that the best-fit transit depths for visits in the same bandpass can vary by as much as 8% of the total (4.7 sigma significance) from one epoch to the next. Although we cannot entirely rule out residual detector effects or a time-varying, high-altitude cloud layer in the planet's atmosphere as the cause of these variations, we consider the occultation of active regions on the star in a subset of the transit observations to be the most likely explanation. We reconcile the presence of magnetically active regions with the lack of significant visible or infrared flux variations from the star by proposing that the star's spin axis is tilted with respect to our line of sight, and that the planet's orbit is therefore likely to be misaligned. These observations serve to illustrate the challenges associated with transmission spectroscopy of planets orbiting late-type stars; we expect that other systems, such as GJ 1214, may display comparably variable transit depths. Our measured 8 micron secondary eclipse depths are consistent with a constant value, and we place a 1 sigma upper limit of 17% on changes in the planet's dayside flux in this band. Averaging over the eleven visits gives us an improved estimate of 0.0452% +/- 0.0027% for the secondary eclipse depth. We combine timing information from our observations with previously published data to produce a refined orbital ephemeris, and determine that the best-fit transit and eclipse times are consistent with a constant orbital period. [ABRIDGED]

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arXiv2011

Transit surveys for Earths in the habitable zones of white dwarfs

To date the search for habitable Earth-like planets has primarily focused on nuclear burning stars. I propose that this search should be expanded to cool white dwarf stars that have expended their nuclear fuel. I define the continuously habitable zone of white dwarfs, and show that it extends from ~0.005 to 0.02 AU for white dwarfs with masses from 0.4 to 0.9 solar masses, temperatures less than 10,000 K, and habitable durations of at least 3 Gyr. As they are similar in size to Earth, white dwarfs may be deeply eclipsed by terrestrial planets that orbit edge-on, which can easily be detected with ground-based telescopes. If planets can migrate inward or reform near white dwarfs, I show that a global robotic telescope network could carry out a transit survey of nearby white dwarfs placing interesting constraints on the presence of habitable Earths. If planets were detected, I show that the survey would favor detection of planets similar to Earth: similar size, temperature, rotation period, and host star temperatures similar to the Sun. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope could place even tighter constraints on the frequency of habitable Earths around white dwarfs. The confirmation and characterization of these planets might be carried out with large ground and space telescopes.

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arXiv2011

Rotational Variability of Earth's Polar Regions: Implications for Detecting Snowball Planets

We have obtained the first time-resolved, disc-integrated observations of Earth's poles with the Deep Impact spacecraft as part of the EPOXI Mission of Opportunity. These data mimic what we will see when we point next-generation space telescopes at nearby exoplanets. We use principal component analysis (PCA) and rotational lightcurve inversion to characterize color inhomogeneities and map their spatial distribution from these unusual vantage points, as a complement to the equatorial views presented in Cowan et al. (2009). We also perform the same PCA on a suite of simulated rotational multi-band lightcurves from NASA's Virtual Planetary Laboratory 3D spectral Earth model. This numerical experiment allows us to understand what sorts of surface features PCA can robustly identify. We find that the EPOXI polar observations have similar broadband colors as the equatorial Earth, but with 20-30% greater apparent albedo. This is because the polar observations are most sensitive to mid-latitudes, which tend to be more cloudy than the equatorial latitudes emphasized by the original EPOXI Earth observations. The cloudiness of the mid-latitudes also manifests itself in the form of increased variability at short wavelengths in the polar observations, and as a dominant gray eigencolor in the south polar observation. We construct a simple reflectance model for a snowball Earth. By construction, our model has a higher Bond albedo than the modern Earth; its surface albedo is so high that Rayleigh scattering does not noticeably affect its spectrum. The rotational color variations occur at short wavelengths due to the large contrast between glacier ice and bare land in those wavebands. Thus we find that both the broadband colors and diurnal color variations of such a planet would be easily distinguishable from the modern-day Earth, regardless of viewing angle.

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arXiv2011

Transit Analysis Package (TAP and autoKep): IDL Graphical User Interfaces for Extrasolar Planet Transit Photometry

We present an IDL graphical user interface-driven software package designed for the analysis of extrasolar planet transit light curves. The Transit Analysis Package (TAP) software uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to fit light curves using the analytic model of Mandel and Agol (2002). The package incorporates a wavelet based likelihood function developed by Carter and Winn (2009) which allows the MCMC to assess parameter uncertainties more robustly than classic chi-squared methods by parameterizing uncorrelated "white" and correlated "red" noise. The software is able to simultaneously analyze multiple transits observed in different conditions (instrument, filter, weather, etc). The graphical interface allows for the simple execution and interpretation of Bayesian MCMC analysis tailored to a user's specific data set and has been thoroughly tested on ground-based and Kepler photometry. AutoKep provides a similar GUI for the preparation of Kepler MAST archive data for analysis by TAP or any other analysis software. This paper describes the software release and provides instructions for its use.

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arXiv2010

The Statistics of Albedo and Heat Recirculation on Hot Exoplanets

[Abridged] If both the day-side and night-side effective temperatures of a planet can be measured, it is possible to estimate its Bond albedo, 0 0.8 micron- to estimate day-side effective temperatures, T_d, and thermal phase variations -when available- to estimate night-side effective temperature. We strongly rule out the "null hypothesis" of a single A_B and epsilon for all 24 planets. If we allow each planet to have different parameters, we find that low Bond albedos are favored (A_B<0.35 at 1 sigma confidence), which is an independent confirmation of the low albedos inferred from non-detection of reflected light. Our sample exhibits a wide variety of redistribution efficiencies. When normalized by T_0, the day-side effective temperatures of the 24 planets describe a uni-modal distribution. The dimensionless quantity T_d/T_0 exhibits no trend with the presence or absence of stratospheric inversions. There is also no clear trend between T_d/T_0 and T_0. That said, the 6 planets with the greatest sub-stellar equilibrium temperatures (T>2400 K) have low epsilon, as opposed to the 18 cooler planets, which show a variety of recirculation efficiencies. This hints that the very hottest transiting giant planets are qualitatively different from the merely hot Jupiters.

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arXiv2010

Quasar Accretion Disks Are Strongly Inhomogeneous

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) have been observed to vary stochastically with 10-20 rms amplitudes over a range of optical wavelengths where the emission arises in an accretion disk. Since the accretion disk is unlikely to vary coherently, local fluctuations may be significantly larger than the global rms variability. We investigate toy models of quasar accretion disks consisting of a number of regions, n, whose temperatures vary independently with an amplitude of σ_T in dex. Models with large fluctuations (σ_T=0.35-0.50) in 100-1000 independently fluctuating zones for every factor of two in radius can explain the observed discrepancy between thin accretion disk sizes inferred from microlensing events and optical luminosity while matching the observed optical variability. For the same range of σ_T, inhomogeneous disk spectra provide excellent fits to the HST quasar composite without invoking global Compton scattering atmospheres to explain the high levels of observed UV emission. Simulated microlensing light curves for the Einstein cross from our time-varying toy models are well fit using a time-steady power-law temperature disk, and produce magnification light curves that are consistent with current microlensing observations. Deviations due to the inhomogeneous, time-dependent disk structure should occur above the 1% level in the light curves, detectable in future microlensing observations with millimag sensitivity.

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arXiv2010

MARVELS-1b: A Short-Period, Brown Dwarf Desert Candidate from the SDSS-III MARVELS Planet Search

We present a new short-period brown dwarf candidate around the star TYC 1240-00945-1. This candidate was discovered in the first year of the Multi-object APO Radial Velocity Exoplanets Large-area Survey (MARVELS), which is part of the third phase of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-III), and we designate the brown dwarf as MARVELS-1b. MARVELS uses the technique of dispersed fixed-delay interferometery to simultaneously obtain radial velocity measurements for 60 objects per field using a single, custom-built instrument that is fiber fed from the SDSS 2.5-m telescope. From our 20 radial velocity measurements spread over a ~370 d time baseline, we derive a Keplerian orbital fit with semi-amplitude K=2.533+/-0.025 km/s, period P=5.8953+/-0.0004 d, and eccentricity consistent with circular. Independent follow-up radial velocity data confirm the orbit. Adopting a mass of 1.37+/-0.11 M_Sun for the slightly evolved F9 host star, we infer that the companion has a minimum mass of 28.0+/-1.5 M_Jup, a semimajor axis 0.071+/-0.002 AU assuming an edge-on orbit, and is probably tidally synchronized. We find no evidence for coherent instrinsic variability of the host star at the period of the companion at levels greater than a few millimagnitudes. The companion has an a priori transit probability of ~14%. Although we find no evidence for transits, we cannot definitively rule them out for companion radii ~<1 R_Jup.

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arXiv2010

Secondary Eclipse Photometry of WASP-4b with Warm Spitzer

We present photometry of the giant extrasolar planet WASP-4b at 3.6 and 4.5 micron taken with the Infrared Array Camera on board the Spitzer Space Telescope as part of Spitzer's extended warm mission. We find secondary eclipse depths of 0.319+/-0.031% and 0.343+/-0.027% for the 3.6 and 4.5 micron bands, respectively and show model emission spectra and pressure-temperature profiles for the planetary atmosphere. These eclipse depths are well fit by model emission spectra with water and other molecules in absorption, similar to those used for TrES-3 and HD 189733b. Depending on our choice of model, these results indicate that this planet has either a weak dayside temperature inversion or no inversion at all. The absence of a strong thermal inversion on this highly irradiated planet is contrary to the idea that highly irradiated planets are expected to have inversions, perhaps due the presence of an unknown absorber in the upper atmosphere. This result might be explained by the modestly enhanced activity level of WASP-4b's G7V host star, which could increase the amount of UV flux received by the planet, therefore reducing the abundance of the unknown stratospheric absorber in the planetary atmosphere as suggested in Knutson et al. (2010). We also find no evidence for an offset in the timing of the secondary eclipse and place a 2 sigma upper limit on |ecos(omega)| of 0.0024, which constrains the range of tidal heating models that could explain this planet's inflated radius.

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arXiv2010

Warm Spitzer Photometry of the Transiting Exoplanets CoRoT-1 and CoRoT-2 at Secondary Eclipse

We measure secondary eclipses of the hot giant exoplanets CoRoT-1 at 3.6 and 4.5 microns, and CoRoT-2 at 3.6 microns, both using Warm Spitzer. We find that the Warm Spitzer mission is working very well for exoplanet science. For consistency of our analysis we also re-analyze archival cryogenic Spitzer data for secondary eclipses of CoRoT-2 at 4.5 and 8 microns. We compare the total data for both planets, including optical eclipse measurements by the CoRoT mission, and ground-based eclipse measurements at 2 microns, to existing models. Both planets exhibit stronger eclipses at 4.5 than at 3.6 microns, which is often indicative of an atmospheric temperature inversion. The spectrum of CoRoT-1 is best reproduced by a 2460K blackbody, due either to a high altitude layer that strongly absorbs stellar irradiance, or an isothermal region in the planetary atmosphere. The spectrum of CoRoT-2 is unusual because the 8 micron contrast is anomalously low. Non-inverted atmospheres could potentially produce the CoRoT-2 spectrum if the planet exhibits line emission from CO at 4.5 microns, caused by tidal-induced mass loss. However, the viability of that hypothesis is questionable because the emitting region cannot be more than about 30-percent larger than the planet's transit radius, based on the ingress and egress times at eclipse. An alternative possibility to account for the spectrum of CoRoT-2 is an additional opacity source that acts strongly at wavelengths less than 5 microns, heating the upper atmosphere while allowing the deeper atmosphere seen at 8 microns to remain cooler. We obtain a similar result as Gillon et al. for the phase of the secondary eclipse of CoRoT-2, implying an eccentric orbit with e*cos(omega)=-0.0030 +/- 0.0004.

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arXiv2010

A Model for Thermal Phase Variations of Circular and Eccentric Exoplanets

We present a semi-analytic model atmosphere for close-in exoplanets that captures the essential physics of phase curves: orbital and viewing geometry, advection, and re-radiation. We calibrate the model with the well-characterized transiting planet, HD 189733b, then compute light curves for seven of the most eccentric transiting planets. We present phase variations for a variety of different radiative times and wind speeds. In the limit of instant re-radiation, the light curve morphology is entirely dictated by the planet's eccentricity and argument of pericenter: the light curve maximum leads or trails the eclipse depending on whether the planet is receding from or approaching the star at superior conjunction, respectively. For a planet with non-zero radiative timescales, the phase peak occurs early for super- rotating winds, and late for sub-rotating winds. We find that for a circular orbit, the timing of the phase variation maximum with respect to superior conjunction indicates the direction of the dominant winds, but cannot break the degeneracy between wind speed and radiative time. For circular planets the phase minimum occurs half an orbit away from the phase maximum -despite the fact that the coolest longitudes are always near the dawn terminator- and therefore does not convey any additional information. In general, increasing the advective frequency or the radiative time has the effect of reducing the peak-to-trough amplitude of phase variations, but there are interesting exceptions to these trends. Lastly, eccentric planets with orbital periods significantly longer than their radiative time exhibit "ringing" whereby the hot spot generated at periastron rotates in and out of view. The existence of ringing makes it possible to directly measure the wind speed (the frequency of the ringing) and the radiative time constant (the damping of the ringing).

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arXiv2010

Exo-Planetary Transits of Limb Brightened Lines; Tentative Si IV Absorption by HD209458b

Transit light curves for stellar continua have only one minimum and a "U" shape. By contrast, transit curves for optically thin chromospheric emission lines can have a "W" shape because of stellar limb-brightening. We calculate light curves for an optically thin shell of emission and fit these models to time-resolved observations of Si IV absorption by the planet HD209458b. We find that the best fit Si IV absorption model has R_p,SIV/R_*= 0.34+0.07-0.12, similar to the Roche lobe of the planet. While the large radius is only at the limit of statistical significance, we develop formulae applicable to transits of all optically thin chromospheric emission lines.

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arXiv2010

The Submillimeter Bump in Sgr A* from Relativistic MHD Simulations

Recent high resolution observations of the Galactic center black hole allow for direct comparison with accretion disk simulations. We compare two-temperature synchrotron emission models from three dimensional, general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to millimeter observations of Sgr A*. Fits to very long baseline interferometry and spectral index measurements disfavor the monochromatic face-on black hole shadow models from our previous work. Inclination angles \le 20 degrees are ruled out to 3 σ. We estimate the inclination and position angles of the black hole, as well as the electron temperature of the accretion flow and the accretion rate, to be i=50+35-15 degrees, ξ=-23+97-22 degrees, T_e=(5.4 +/- 3.0)x10^10 K and Mdot=(5+15-2)x10^-9 M_sun / yr respectively, with 90% confidence. The black hole shadow is unobscured in all best fit models, and may be detected by observations on baselines between Chile and California, Arizona or Mexico at 1.3mm or .87mm either through direct sampling of the visibility amplitude or using closure phase information. Millimeter flaring behavior consistent with the observations is present in all viable models, and is caused by magnetic turbulence in the inner radii of the accretion flow. The variability at optically thin frequencies is strongly correlated with that in the accretion rate. The simulations provide a universal picture of the 1.3mm emission region as a small region near the midplane in the inner radii of the accretion flow, which is roughly isothermal and has ν/ν_c ~ 1-20, where ν_c is the critical frequency for thermal synchrotron emission.

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arXiv2009

Millimeter Flares and VLBI Visibilities from Relativistic Simulations of Magnetized Accretion onto the Galactic Center Black Hole

The recent VLBI observation of the Galactic center black hole candidate Sgr A* at 1.3mm shows source structure on event-horizon scales. This detection enables a direct comparison of the emission region with models of the accretion flow onto the black hole. We present the first results from time-dependent radiative transfer of general relativistic MHD simulation data, and compare simulated synchrotron images at black hole spin a=0.9 with the VLBI measurements. After tuning the accretion rate to match the millimeter flux, we find excellent agreement between predicted and observed visibilities, even when viewed face-on (i < 30 degrees). VLBI measurements on 2000-3000km baselines should constrain the inclination. The data constrain the accretion rate to be (1.0-2.3)x10^-9 M_sun / yr with 99% confidence, consistent with but independent of prior estimates derived from spectroscopic and polarimetric measurements. Finally, we compute light curves, which show that magnetic turbulence can directly produce flaring events with .5 hour rise times, 2-3.5 hour durations and 40-50% flux modulation, in agreement with observations of Sgr A* at millimeter wavelengths.

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arXiv2009

The 8 Micron Phase Variation of the Hot Saturn HD 149026b

We monitor the star HD 149026 and its Saturn-mass planet at 8.0 micron over slightly more than half an orbit using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) on the Spitzer Space Telescope. We find an increase of 0.0227% +/- 0.0066% (3.4 sigma significance) in the combined planet-star flux during this interval. The minimum flux from the planet is 45% +/- 19% of the maximum planet flux, corresponding to a difference in brightness temperature of 480 +/- 140 K between the two hemispheres. We derive a new secondary eclipse depth of 0.0411% +/- 0.0076% in this band, corresponding to a dayside brightness temperature of 1440 +/- 150 K. Our new secondary eclipse depth is half that of a previous measurement (3.0 sigma difference) in this same bandpass by Harrington et al. (2007). We re-fit the Harrington et al. (2007) data and obtain a comparably good fit with a smaller eclipse depth that is consistent with our new value. In contrast to earlier claims, our new eclipse depth suggests that this planet's dayside emission spectrum is relatively cool, with an 8 micron brightness temperature that is less than the maximum planet-wide equilibrium temperature. We measure the interval between the transit and secondary eclipse and find that that the secondary eclipse occurs 20.9 +7.2 / -6.5 minutes earlier (2.9 sigma) than predicted for a circular orbit, a marginally significant result. This corresponds to e*cos(omega) = -0.0079 +0.0027 / -0.0025 where e is the planet's orbital eccentricity and omega is the argument of pericenter.

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arXiv2009

Detection of a Companion Lens Galaxy using the Mid-infrared Flux Ratios of the Gravitationally Lensed Quasar H1413+117

We present the first resolved mid-IR (11 micron) observations of the four-image quasar lens H1413+117 using the Michelle camera on Gemini North. All previous observations (optical, near-IR, and radio) of this lens show a "flux anomaly," where the image flux ratios cannot be explained by a simple, central lens galaxy. We attempt to reproduce the mid-IR flux ratios, which are insensitive to extinction and microlensing, by modeling the main lens as a singular isothermal ellipsoid. This model fails to reproduce the flux ratios. However, we can explain the flux ratios simply by adding to the model a nearby galaxy detected in the H-band by HST/NICMOS-NIC2. This perturbing galaxy lies 4.0" from the main lens and it has a critical radius of 0.63" +/- 0.02" which is similar to that of the main lens, as expected from their similar H-band fluxes. More remarkably, this galaxy is not required to obtain a good fit to the system astrometry, so this represents the first clear detection of an object through its effect on the image fluxes of a gravitational lens. This is a parallel to the detections of visible satellites from astrometric anomalies, and provides a proof of the concept of searching for substructure in galaxies using anomalous flux ratios.

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arXiv2009

Imaging an Event Horizon: submm-VLBI of a Super Massive Black Hole

A long standing goal in astrophysics is to directly observe the immediate environment of a black hole with angular resolution comparable to the event horizon. Realizing this goal would open a new window on the study of General Relativity in the strong field regime, accretion and outflow processes at the edge of a black hole, the existence of an event horizon, and fundamental black hole physics (e.g., spin). Steady long-term progress on improving the capability of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at short wavelengths has now made it extremely likely that this goal will be achieved within the next decade. The most compelling evidence for this is the recent observation by 1.3mm VLBI of Schwarzschild radius scale structure in SgrA*, the compact source of radio, submm, NIR and xrays at the center of the Milky Way. SgrA* is thought to mark the position of a ~4 million solar mass black hole, and because of its proximity and estimated mass presents the largest apparent event horizon size of any black hole candidate in the Universe. Over the next decade, existing and planned mm/submm facilities will be combined into a high sensitivity, high angular resolution "Event Horizon Telescope" that will bring us as close to the edge of black hole as we will come for decades. This white paper describes the science case for mm/submm VLBI observations of both SgrA* and M87 (a radio loud AGN of a much more luminous class that SgrA*). We emphasize that while there is development and procurement involved, the technical path forward is clear, and the recent successful observations have removed much of the risk that would normally be associated with such an ambitious project.

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