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Eric B. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Eric B. Ford.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

The Ĝ Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures

Arnold (2005), Forgan (2013), and Korpela et al. (2015) noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate ten potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures. Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold's prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan's model. Since well motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how nonstandard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. 2015 recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a "swarm" of megastructures. We suggest this is an outstanding SETI target. We develop the normalized information content statistic $M$ to quantify the information content in a signal embedded in a discrete series of bounded measurements, such as variable transit depths, and show that it can be used to distinguish among constant sources, interstellar beacons, and naturally stochastic or artificial, information-rich signals. We apply this formalism to KIC 12557548 and a specific form of beacon suggested by Arnold to illustrate its utility.

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The Eccentricity Distribution of Short-Period Planet Candidates Detected by Kepler in Occultation

We characterize the eccentricity distribution of a sample of ~50 short-period planet candidates using transit and occultation measurements from NASA's Kepler Mission. First, we evaluate the sensitivity of our hierarchical Bayesian modeling and test its robustness to model misspecification using simulated data. When analyzing actual data assuming a Rayleigh distribution for eccentricity, we find that the posterior mode for the dispersion parameter is $σ=0.081 \pm^{0.014}_{0.003}$. We find that a two-component Gaussian mixture model for $e \cos ω$ and $e \sin ω$ provides a better model than either a Rayleigh or Beta distribution. Based on our favored model, we find that $\sim90\%$ of planet candidates in our sample come from a population with an eccentricity distribution characterized by a small dispersion ($\sim0.01$), and $\sim10\%$ come from a population with a larger dispersion ($\sim0.22$). Finally, we investigate how the eccentricity distribution correlates with selected planet and host star parameters. We find evidence that suggests systems around higher metallicity stars and planet candidates with smaller radii come from a more complex eccentricity distribution.

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Period Ratio Distribution of Near-Resonant Planets Indicates Planetesimal Scattering

An intriguing trend among Kepler's multi-planet systems is an overabundance of planet pairs with period ratios just wide of mean motion resonances (MMR) and a dearth of systems just narrow of them. In a recently published paper Chatterjee & Ford (2015; henceforth CF15) has proposed that gas-disk migration traps planets in a MMR. After gas dispersal, orbits of these trapped planets are altered through interaction with a residual planetesimal disk. They found that for massive enough disks planet-planetesimal disk interactions can break resonances and naturally create moderate to large positive offsets from the initial period ratio for large ranges of planetesimal disk and planet properties. Divergence from resonance only happens if the mass of planetesimals that interact with the planets is at least a few percent of the total planet mass. This threshold, above which resonances are broken and the offset from resonances can grow, naturally explains why the asymmetric large offsets were not seen in more massive planet pairs found via past radial velocity surveys. In this article we will highlight some of the key findings of CF15. In addition, we report preliminary results from an extension of this study, that investigates the effects of planet-planetesimal disk interactions on initially non-resonant planet pairs. We find that planetesimal scattering typically increases period ratios of non-resonant planets. If the initial period ratios are below and in proximity of a resonance, under certain conditions, this increment in period ratios can create a deficit of systems with period ratios just below the exact integer corresponding to the MMR and an excess just above. From an initially uniform distribution of period ratios just below a 2:1 MMR, planetesimal interactions can create an asymmetric distribution across this MMR similar to what is observed for the Kepler planet pairs.

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An Empirically Derived Three-Dimensional Laplace Resonance in the Gliese 876 Planetary System

We report constraints on the three-dimensional orbital architecture for all four planets known to orbit the nearby M dwarf Gliese 876 based solely on Doppler measurements and demanding long-term orbital stability. Our dataset incorporates publicly available radial velocities taken with the ELODIE and CORALIE spectrographs, HARPS, and Keck HIRES as well as previously unpublished HIRES velocities. We first quantitatively assess the validity of the planets thought to orbit GJ 876 by computing the Bayes factors for a variety of different coplanar models using an importance sampling algorithm. We find that a four-planet model is preferred over a three-planet model. Next, we apply a Newtonian MCMC algorithm to perform a Bayesian analysis of the planet masses and orbits using an n-body model in three-dimensional space. Based on the radial velocities alone, we find that a 99% credible interval provides upper limits on the mutual inclinations for the three resonant planets ($Φ_{cb}<6.20^\circ$ for the "c" and "b" pair and $Φ_{be}<28.5^\circ$ for the "b" and "e" pair). Subsequent dynamical integrations of our posterior sample find that the GJ 876 planets must be roughly coplanar ($Φ_{cb}<2.60^\circ$ and $Φ_{be}<7.87^\circ$), suggesting the amount of planet-planet scattering in the system has been low. We investigate the distribution of the respective resonant arguments of each planet pair and find that at least one argument for each planet pair and the Laplace argument librate. The libration amplitudes in our three-dimensional orbital model supports the idea of the outer-three planets having undergone significant past disk migration.

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The mass of the Mars-sized exoplanet Kepler-138 b from transit timing

Extrasolar planets that pass in front of their host star (transit) cause a temporary decrease in the apparent brightness of the star once per orbit, providing a direct measure of the planet's size and orbital period. In some systems with multiple transiting planets, the times of the transits are measurably affected by the gravitational interactions between neighbouring planets. In favorable cases, the departures from Keplerian orbits implied by the observed transit times permit planetary masses to be measured, which is key to determining bulk densities. Characterizing rocky planets is particularly difficult, since they are generally smaller and less massive than gaseous planets. Thus, few exoplanets near Earth's size have had their masses measured. Here we report the sizes and masses of three planets orbiting Kepler-138, a star much fainter and cooler than the Sun. We measure the mass of the Mars-sized inner planet based on on the transit times of its neighbour and thereby provide the first density measurement for an exoplanet smaller than Earth. The middle and outer planets are both slightly larger than Earth. The middle planet's density is similar to that of Earth, while the outer planet is less than half as dense, implying that it contains a greater portion of low density components such as H2O and/or H2.

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Vetting Kepler Planet Candidates in the Sub-Jovian Desert with Multi-Band Photometry

We present new multi-band transit photometry of three small (R$_{p}$ < 6 R$_{\oplus}$), short-period (P < 6 days) Kepler planet candidates acquired with the Gran Telescopio Canarias. These observations supplement the results presented in Colón & Ford (2011) and Colón et al. (2012), where we used multicolor transit photometry of five Kepler planet candidates to search for wavelength-dependent transit depths and either validate planet candidates or identify eclipsing binary false positives within our sample. In those previous studies, we provided evidence that three targets were false positives and two targets were planets. Here, we present observations that provide evidence supporting a planetary nature for KOI 439.01 and KOI 732.01, and we find that KOI 531.01, a 6 R$_{\oplus}$ planet candidate around an M dwarf, is likely a false positive. We also present a discussion of the purported "sub-Jovian desert" in the orbital period-planet radius plane, which cannot be easily explained by observational bias. Both KOI 439.01 and KOI 732.01 are likely planets located within the so-called desert and should be investigated with further follow-up observations. As only ~30 of the ~3600 currently active Kepler planet candidates are located within the sub-Jovian desert, it will be interesting to see if these candidates also survive the vetting process and fill in the gap in the period-radius plane. Confirming planets in this regime will be important for understanding planetary migration and evolution processes, and we urge additional follow-up observations of these planet candidates to confirm their nature.

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Time variation of Kepler transits induced by stellar spots - a way to distinguish between prograde and retrograde motion. II. Application to KOIs

Mazeh, Holczer, and Shporer (2015) have presented an approach that can, in principle, use the derived transit timing variation (TTV) of some transiting planets observed by the $Kepler$ mission to distinguish between prograde and retrograde motion of their orbits with respect to their parent stars' rotation. The approach utilizes TTVs induced by spot-crossing events that occur when the planet moves across a spot on the stellar surface, looking for a correlation between the derived TTVs and the stellar brightness derivatives at the corresponding transits. This can work even in data that cannot temporally resolve the spot-crossing events themselves. Here we apply this approach to the $Kepler$ KOIs, identifying nine systems where the photometric spot modulation is large enough and the transit timing accurate enough to allow detection of a TTV-brightness-derivatives correlation. Of those systems five show highly significant prograde motion (Kepler-17b, Kepler-71b, KOI-883.01, KOI-895.01, and KOI-1074.01), while no system displays retrograde motion, consistent with the suggestion that planets orbiting cool stars have prograde motion. All five systems have impact parameter $0.2\lesssim b\lesssim0.5$, and all systems within that impact parameter range show significant correlation, except HAT-P-11b where the lack of a correlation follows its large stellar obliquity. Our search suffers from an observational bias against detection of high impact parameter cases, and the detected sample is extremely small. Nevertheless, our findings may suggest that stellar spots, or at least the larger ones, tend to be located at a low stellar latitude, but not along the stellar equator, similar to the Sun.

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Low False-Positive Rate of Kepler Candidates Estimated From A Combination Of Spitzer And Follow-Up Observations

(Abridged) NASA's Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates, yet only a small subset have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) amongst the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 microns. We use these observations to measures the candidate's transit depths and infrared magnitudes. A bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false-positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5-40%, depending on the KOIs. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3 sigma. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated by the Kepler observations, provides an independent indication that Kepler's false positive rate is low.

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The APOGEE Spectroscopic Survey of Kepler Planet Hosts: Feasibility, Efficiency, and First Results

The Kepler mission has yielded a large number of planet candidates from among the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs), but spectroscopic follow-up of these relatively faint stars is a serious bottleneck in confirming and characterizing these systems. We present motivation and survey design for an ongoing project with the SDSS-III multiplexed APOGEE near-infrared spectrograph to monitor hundreds of KOI host stars. We report some of our first results using representative targets from our sample, which include current planet candidates that we find to be false positives, as well as candidates listed as false positives that we do not find to be spectroscopic binaries. With this survey, KOI hosts are observed over ~20 epochs at a radial velocity precision of 100-200 m/s. These observations can easily identify a majority of false positives caused by physically-associated stellar or substellar binaries, and in many cases, fully characterize their orbits. We demonstrate that APOGEE is capable of achieving RV precision at the 100-200 m/s level over long time baselines, and that APOGEE's multiplexing capability makes it substantially more efficient at identifying false positives due to binaries than other single-object spectrographs working to confirm KOIs as planets. These APOGEE RVs enable ancillary science projects, such as studies of fundamental stellar astrophysics or intrinsically rare substellar companions. The coadded APOGEE spectra can be used to derive stellar properties (T_eff, log(g)) and chemical abundances of over a dozen elements to probe correlations of planet properties with individual elemental abundances.

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Planetesimal Interactions Can Explain the Mysterious Period Ratios of Small Near-Resonant Planets

An intriguing trend among \kepler's multi-planet systems is an overabundance of planet pairs with period ratios just wide of a mean motion resonance (MMR) and a dearth of systems just narrow of them. Traditional planet formation models are at odds with these observations. They are also in contrast with the period ratios of radial-velocity-discovered multi-planet systems which tend to pile up at 2:1 MMR. We propose that gas-disk migration traps planets in a MMR. After gas dispersal, orbits of these trapped planets are altered through interaction with a residual planetesimal disk. We study the effects of planetesimal disk interactions on planet pairs trapped in 2:1 MMR using planets of mass typical of the Kepler planet candidates (KPC) and explore large ranges for the mass, and density profile of the planetesimal disk. We find that planet-planetesimal disk interactions naturally create the observed asymmetry in period-ratio distribution for large ranges of planetesimal disk and planet properties. If the planetesimal disk mass is above a threshold of ~0.2x the planet mass, these interactions typically disrupt MMR. Afterwards, the planets migrate in such a way that the final period-ratio is slightly higher than the integer ratio corresponding to the initial MMR. Below this threshold these interactions typically cannot disrupt the resonance and the period ratio stays close to the integer ratio. The threshold explains why the more massive planet pairs found by RV surveys are still in resonance. We encourage future research to explore how significantly the associated accretion would change the planets' atmospheric and surface properties.

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The California Planet Survey IV: A Planet Orbiting the Giant Star HD 145934 and Updates to Seven Systems with Long-Period Planets

We present an update to seven stars with long-period planets or planetary candidates using new and archival radial velocities from Keck-HIRES and literature velocities from other telescopes. Our updated analysis better constrains orbital parameters for these planets, four of which are known multi-planet systems. HD 24040 b and HD 183263 c are super-Jupiters with circular orbits and periods longer than 8 yr. We present a previously unseen linear trend in the residuals of HD 66428 indicative on an additional planetary companion. We confirm that GJ 849 is a multi-planet system and find a good orbital solution for the c component: it is a $1 M_{\rm Jup}$ planet in a 15 yr orbit (the longest known for a planet orbiting an M dwarf). We update the HD 74156 double-planet system. We also announce the detection of HD 145934 b, a $2 M_{\rm Jup}$ planet in a 7.5 yr orbit around a giant star. Two of our stars, HD 187123 and HD 217107, at present host the only known examples of systems comprising a hot Jupiter and a planet with a well constrained period $> 5$ yr, and with no evidence of giant planets in between. Our enlargement and improvement of long-period planet parameters will aid future analysis of origins, diversity, and evolution of planetary systems.

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Overcoming the Meter Barrier and The Formation of Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs)

We present a solution to the long outstanding meter barrier problem in planet formation theory. As solids spiral inward due to aerodynamic drag, they will enter disk regions that are characterized by high temperatures, densities, and pressures. High partial pressures of rock vapor can suppress solid evaporation, and promote collisions between partially molten solids, allowing rapid growth. This process should be ubiquitous in planet-forming disks, which may be evidenced by the abundant class of Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs) discovered by the NASA Kepler mission.

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Architecture of Kepler's Multi-transiting Systems: II. New investigations with twice as many candidates

We report on the orbital architectures of Kepler systems having multiple planet candidates identified in the analysis of data from the first six quarters of Kepler data and reported by Batalha et al. (2013). These data show 899 transiting planet candidates in 365 multiple-planet systems and provide a powerful means to study the statistical properties of planetary systems. Using a generic mass-radius relationship, we find that only two pairs of planets in these candidate systems (out of 761 pairs total) appear to be on Hill-unstable orbits, indicating ~96% of the candidate planetary systems are correctly interpreted as true systems. We find that planet pairs show little statistical preference to be near mean-motion resonances. We identify an asymmetry in the distribution of period ratios near first-order resonances (e.g., 2:1, 3:2), with an excess of planet pairs lying wide of resonance and relatively few lying narrow of resonance. Finally, based upon the transit duration ratios of adjacent planets in each system, we find that the interior planet tends to have a smaller transit impact parameter than the exterior planet does. This finding suggests that the mode of the mutual inclinations of planetary orbital planes is in the range 1.0-2.2 degrees, for the packed systems of small planets probed by these observations.

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The 55 Cancri Planetary System: Fully Self-Consistent N-body Constraints and a Dynamical Analysis

We present an updated study of the planets known to orbit 55 Cancri A using 1,418 high-precision radial velocity observations from four observatories (Lick, Keck, Hobby-Eberly Telescope, Harlan J. Smith Telescope) and transit time/durations for the inner-most planet, 55 Cancri "e" (Winn et al. 2011). We provide the first posterior sample for the masses and orbital parameters based on self-consistent n-body orbital solutions for the 55 Cancri planets, all of which are dynamically stable (for at least $10^8$ years). We apply a GPU version of Radial velocity Using N-body Differential evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC; B. Nelson et al. 2014) to perform a Bayesian analysis of the radial velocity and transit observations. Each of the planets in this remarkable system has unique characteristics. Our investigation of high-cadence radial velocities and priors based on space-based photometry yields an updated mass estimate for planet "e" ($8.09\pm0.26$ M$_\oplus$), which affects its density ($5.51\pm^{1.32}_{1.00}$ g cm$^{-3}$) and inferred bulk composition. Dynamical stability dictates that the orbital plane of planet "e" must be aligned to within $60^o$ of the orbital plane of the outer planets (which we assume to be coplanar). The mutual interactions between the planets "b" and "c" may develop an apsidal lock about $180^o$. We find 36-45% of all our model systems librate about the anti-aligned configuration with an amplitude of $51^o\pm^{6^o}_{10^o}$. Other cases showed short-term perturbations in the libration of $\varpi_b-\varpi_c$, circulation, and nodding, but we find the planets are not in a 3:1 mean-motion resonance. A revised orbital period and eccentricity for planet "d" pushes it further toward the closest known Jupiter analog in the exoplanet population.

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An Earth-sized Planet in the Habitable Zone of a Cool Star

The quest for Earth-like planets represents a major focus of current exoplanet research. While planets that are Earth-sized and smaller have been detected, these planets reside in orbits that are too close to their host star to allow liquid water on their surface. We present the detection of Kepler-186f, a 1.11+\-0.14 Earth radius planet that is the outermost of five planets - all roughly Earth-sized - that transit a 0.47+\-0.05 Rsun star. The intensity and spectrum of the star's radiation places Kepler-186f in the stellar habitable zone, implying that if Kepler-186f has an Earth-like atmosphere and H2O at its surface, then some of this H2O is likely to be in liquid form.

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Architectures of Planetary Systems and Implications for their Formation

Doppler planet searches revealed that many giant planets orbit close to their host star or in highly eccentric orbits. These and subsequent observations inspired new theories of planet formation that invoke gravitation interactions in multiple planet systems to explain the excitation of orbital eccentricities and even short-period giant planets. Recently, NASA's Kepler mission has identified over 300 systems with multiple transiting planet candidates, including many potentially rocky planets. Most of these systems include multiple planets with closely-spaced orbits and sizes between that of Earth and Neptune. These systems represent yet another new and unexpected class of planetary systems and provide an opportunity to test the theories developed to explain the properties of giant exoplanets. Presently, we have limited knowledge about such planetary systems, mostly about their sizes and orbital periods. With the advent of long-term, nearly continuous monitoring by Kepler, the method of transit timing variations (TTVs) has blossomed as a new technique for characterizing the gravitational effects of mutual planetary perturbations for hundreds of planets. TTVs can provide precise (but complex) constraints on planetary masses, densities and orbits, even for planetary systems with faint host stars. In the coming years, astronomers will translate TTV observations into increasingly powerful constraints on the formation and orbital evolution of planetary systems with low-mass planets. Between TTVs, improved Doppler surveys, high-contrast imaging campaigns and microlensing surveys, astronomers can look forward to a much better understanding of planet formation in the coming decade.

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Validation of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates. II: Refined Statistical Framework and Descriptions of Systems of Special Interest

We extend the statistical analysis of Lissauer et al. (2012, ApJ 750, 112), which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represent true transiting planets, and develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. (2014, ApJ, this issue). We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.

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Masses, Radii, and Orbits of Small Kepler Planets: The Transition from Gaseous to Rocky Planets

We report on the masses, sizes, and orbits of the planets orbiting 22 Kepler stars. There are 49 planet candidates around these stars, including 42 detected through transits and 7 revealed by precise Doppler measurements of the host stars. Based on an analysis of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low false-positive probabilities for all of the transiting planets (41 of 42 have a false-positive probability under 1%), and we constrain their sizes and masses. Most of the transiting planets are smaller than 3X the size of Earth. For 16 planets, the Doppler signal was securely detected, providing a direct measurement of the planet's mass. For the other 26 planets we provide either marginal mass measurements or upper limits to their masses and densities; in many cases we can rule out a rocky composition. We identify 6 planets with densities above 5 g/cc, suggesting a mostly rocky interior for them. Indeed, the only planets that are compatible with a purely rocky composition are smaller than ~2 R_earth. Larger planets evidently contain a larger fraction of low-density material (H, He, and H2O).

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