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Eric Forgoston

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Forgoston.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Learned Lagrangian Models of PDEs via Euler-Lagrange Residual Minimization

We present the first method to directly use a learned continuous Lagrangian to forecast the dynamics of systems governed by partial differential equations, exploiting the inherent conservative structure to achieve stable long-range predictions. We develop an optimization-based integrator that minimizes the squared Euler--Lagrange residual via a mesh-free near-symplectic construction on local space-time patches. Different from integrators for analytical models, integrators for learned models should decouple model error (phase error) from integration error (conservation error). By relying on optimization rather than time-stepping, we bypass the global coupling inherent to fixed discretizations, which slows time- and space-stepping and complicates learning. Our method scales linearly with domain size via Jacobi iteration, and places no structural requirements on the learned network, allowing it to be coupled with existing physics-guided machine learning (ML) methods. We validate our approach on a learned representation of a double pendulum, a one-dimensional wave equation, and a two-dimensional wave equation. Our method achieves error comparable to classical symplectic methods while generalizing to spatially varying dynamics and arbitrary boundary conditions without retraining.

cs.LG

Exploring the Dynamics of Lotka-Volterra Systems: Efficiency, Extinction Order, and Predictive Machine Learning

For years, a main focus of ecological research has been to better understand the complex dynamical interactions between species which comprise food webs. Using the connectance properties of a widely explored synthetic food web called the cascade model, we explore the behavior of dynamics on Lotka-Volterra ecological systems. We show how trophic efficiency, a staple assumption in mathematical ecology, produces systems which are not persistent. With clustering analysis we show how straightforward inequalities of the summed values of the birth, death, self-regulation and interaction strengths provide insight into which food webs are more enduring or stable. Through these simplified summed values, we develop a random forest model and a neural network model, both of which are able to predict the number of extinctions that would occur without the need to simulate the dynamics. To conclude, we highlight the variable that plays the dominant role in determining the order in which species go extinct.

q-bio.PE

Stability and Fluctuations in Complex Ecological Systems

From 08-12 August, 2022, 32 individuals participated in a workshop, Stability and Fluctuations in Complex Ecological Systems, at the Lorentz Center, located in Leiden, The Netherlands. An interdisciplinary dialogue between ecologists, mathematicians, and physicists provided a foundation of important problems to consider over the next 5-10 years. This paper outlines eight areas including (1) improving our understanding of the effect of scale, both temporal and spatial, for both deterministic and stochastic problems; (2) clarifying the different terminologies and definitions used in different scientific fields; (3) developing a comprehensive set of data analysis techniques arising from different fields but which can be used together to improve our understanding of existing data sets; (4) having theoreticians/computational scientists collaborate closely with empirical ecologists to determine what new data should be collected; (5) improving our knowledge of how to protect and/or restore ecosystems; (6) incorporating socio-economic effects into models of ecosystems; (7) improving our understanding of the role of deterministic and stochastic fluctuations; (8) studying the current state of biodiversity at the functional level, taxa level and genome level.

q-bio.PE

Knowledge-Based Learning of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

Extracting predictive models from nonlinear systems is a central task in scientific machine learning. One key problem is the reconciliation between modern data-driven approaches and first principles. Despite rapid advances in machine learning techniques, embedding domain knowledge into data-driven models remains a challenge. In this work, we present a universal learning framework for extracting predictive models from nonlinear systems based on observations. Our framework can readily incorporate first principle knowledge because it naturally models nonlinear systems as continuous-time systems. This both improves the extracted models' extrapolation power and reduces the amount of data needed for training. In addition, our framework has the advantages of robustness to observational noise and applicability to irregularly sampled data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our scheme by learning predictive models for a wide variety of systems including a stiff Van der Pol oscillator, the Lorenz system, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. For the Lorenz system, different types of domain knowledge are incorporated to demonstrate the strength of knowledge embedding in data-driven system identification.

nlin.CD

Bridging the Gap: Machine Learning to Resolve Improperly Modeled Dynamics

We present a data-driven modeling strategy to overcome improperly modeled dynamics for systems exhibiting complex spatio-temporal behaviors. We propose a Deep Learning framework to resolve the differences between the true dynamics of the system and the dynamics given by a model of the system that is either inaccurately or inadequately described. Our machine learning strategy leverages data generated from the improper system model and observational data from the actual system to create a neural network to model the dynamics of the actual system. We evaluate the proposed framework using numerical solutions obtained from three increasingly complex dynamical systems. Our results show that our system is capable of learning a data-driven model that provides accurate estimates of the system states both in previously unobserved regions as well as for future states. Our results show the power of state-of-the-art machine learning frameworks in estimating an accurate prior of the system's true dynamics that can be used for prediction up to a finite horizon.

cs.LG

Model Reduction in Stochastic Environments

We present a general theory of stochastic model reduction which is based on a normal form coordinate transform method of A.J. Roberts. This nonlinear, stochastic projection allows for the deterministic and stochastic dynamics to interact correctly on the lower-dimensional manifold so that the dynamics predicted by the reduced, stochastic system agrees well with the dynamics predicted by the original, high-dimensional stochastic system. The method may be applied to any system with well-separated time scales. In this article, we consider a physical problem that involves a singularly perturbed Duffing oscillator as well as a biological problem that involves the prediction of infectious disease outbreaks.

math.DS

A primer on noise-induced transitions in applied dynamical systems

Noise plays a fundamental role in a wide variety of physical and biological dynamical systems. It can arise from an external forcing or due to random dynamics internal to the system. It is well established that even weak noise can result in large behavioral changes such as transitions between or escapes from quasi-stable states. These transitions can correspond to critical events such as failures or extinctions that make them essential phenomena to understand and quantify, despite the fact that their occurrence is rare. This article will provide an overview of the theory underlying the dynamics of rare events for stochastic models along with some example applications.

math.AP

Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations

We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.

q-bio.PE

Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

nlin.CD

Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows

We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Based on this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We establish the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

nlin.PS

Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the lower dimensional manifold on which the deterministic and stochastic dynamics correctly interact. Our method produces a low dimensional stochastic model that captures the same timing of disease outbreak and the same amplitude and phase of recurrent behavior seen in the high dimensional model. Given seasonal epidemic data consisting of the number of infectious individuals, our method enables a data-based model prediction of the number of unobserved exposed individuals over very long times.

q-bio.PE

Coherent Pattern Prediction in Swarms of Delay-Coupled Agents

We consider a general swarm model of self-propelling agents interacting through a pairwise potential in the presence of noise and communication time delay. Previous work [Phys. Rev. E 77, 035203(R) (2008)] has shown that a communication time delay in the swarm induces a pattern bifurcation that depends on the size of the coupling amplitude. We extend these results by completely unfolding the bifurcation structure of the mean field approximation. Our analysis reveals a direct correspondence between the different dynamical behaviors found in different regions of the coupling-time delay plane with the different classes of simulated coherent swarm patterns. We derive the spatio-temporal scales of the swarm structures, and also demonstrate how the complicated interplay of coupling strength, time delay, noise intensity, and choice of initial conditions can affect the swarm. In particular, our studies show that for sufficiently large values of the coupling strength and/or the time delay, there is a noise intensity threshold that forces a transition of the swarm from a misaligned state into an aligned state. We show that this alignment transition exhibits hysteresis when the noise intensity is taken to be time dependent.

nlin.AO

Noise, Bifurcations, and Modeling of Interacting Particle Systems

We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a translating state and a rotating state with stationary center of mass. Time delayed communication creates a bifurcation pattern dependent on the coupling amplitude between particles. Using a mean field model in the large number limit, we show how the complete bifurcation unfolds in the presence of communication delay and coupling amplitude. Relative to the center of mass, the patterns can then be described as transitions between translation, rotation about a stationary point, or a rotating swarm, where the center of mass undergoes a Hopf bifurcation from steady state to a limit cycle. Examples of some of the stochastic patterns will be given for large numbers of particles.

nlin.AO

Robotic Manifold Tracking of Coherent Structures in Flows

Tracking Lagrangian coherent structures in dynamical systems is important for many applications such as oceanography and weather prediction. In this paper, we present a collaborative robotic control strategy designed to track stable and unstable manifolds. The technique does not require global information about the fluid dynamics, and is based on local sensing, prediction, and correction. The collaborative control strategy is implemented on a team of three robots to track coherent structures and manifolds on static flows as well as a noisy time-dependent model of a wind-driven double-gyre often seen in the ocean. We present simulation and experimental results and discuss theoretical guarantees of the collaborative tracking strategy.

nlin.AO

Converging towards the optimal path to extinction

Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations due to random transitions act as an effective force which drives one or more components or species to vanish. Although there are many random paths to an extinct state, there is an optimal path that maximizes the probability to extinction. In this article, we show that the optimal path is associated with the dynamical systems idea of having maximum sensitive dependence to initial conditions. Using the equivalence between the sensitive dependence and the path to extinction, we show that the dynamical systems picture of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path in several stochastic models of epidemics.

q-bio.PE

Set-based corral control in stochastic dynamical systems: Making almost invariant sets more invariant

We consider the problem of stochastic prediction and control in a time-dependent stochastic environment, such as the ocean, where escape from an almost invariant region occurs due to random fluctuations. We determine high-probability control-actuation sets by computing regions of uncertainty, almost invariant sets, and Lagrangian Coherent Structures. The combination of geometric and probabilistic methods allows us to design regions of control that provide an increase in loitering time while minimizing the amount of control actuation. We show how the loitering time in almost invariant sets scales exponentially with respect to the control actuation, causing an exponential increase in loitering times with only small changes in actuation force. The result is that the control actuation makes almost invariant sets more invariant.

nlin.AO

Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.

physics.bio-ph

Accurate Noise Projection for Reduced Stochastic Epidemic Models

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise onto the center manifold. Therefore, the solution of this reduced stochastic dynamical system yields excellent agreement, both in amplitude and phase, with the solution of the original stochastic system for a temporal scale that is orders of magnitude longer than the typical relaxation time. This new method allows for improved time series prediction of the number of infectious cases when modeling the spread of disease in a population. Numerical solutions of the fluctuations of the SEIR model are considered in the infinite population limit using a Langevin equation approach, as well as in a finite population simulated as a Markov process.

nlin.AO