arXiv subjects

Eric Gaussier

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Gaussier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Stationarity in Time Series: Discovering Causal Structures and Latent Regimes via Markov Blankets

This paper introduces Regime-aware Constraint-Based and Noise-Based causal discovery with Markov Blankets (RCBNB-MB), a novel causal discovery algorithm for time series that relaxes the common assumption of a single, time-consistent causal structure. Time series are typically observed at discrete time points and often exhibit regime changes that challenge the assumption of a static causal structure, a limitation in many real-world dynamic systems. To address this challenge, RCBNB-MB identifies latent causal regimes, defined as subsets of time points within which a stable causal structure holds. The algorithm follows an iterative strategy that segments the time series into regimes and discovers the causal graph within each regime. By leveraging the Markov blanket rather than direct parents, RCBNB-MB gains robustness to errors in causal discovery and preserves predictive information. We provide theoretical guarantees for RCBNB-MB's ability to recover both regime transitions and causal graphs under reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, we validate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on simulated datasets with known ground truth and real-world IT monitoring data, where taking into account regime shifts is critical. Empirical results show that RCBNB-MB systematically outperforms baseline approaches in accurately detecting regime changes and their associated causal graphs, positioning it as a robust and versatile framework for non-stationary time series analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Difference: Adaptive Reversible Differencing (AdaRDiff) for Time Series Forecasting

Reliable long-horizon time series forecasting is an important yet difficult problem. Trends and seasonality introduce complex temporal structure that challenges learning-based forecasting models. Differencing, which subtracts nearby past values to remove such structure, is the classical remedy, but its reliance on hand-picked orders and periods has kept it largely absent from recent deep architectures. We propose \textbf{\underline{Ada}}ptive \textbf{\underline{R}}eversible \textbf{\underline{Diff}}erencing \textbf{(AdaRDiff)}, a generalized differencing approach that uses learnable weights to simplify the series through weighted differencing with previous time instants. This yields stabilized residuals on which forecasting is performed, after which the removed components are restored autoregressively to reconstruct the forecast, capturing trend and seasonality jointly through a single operator. This reconstruction admits a closed-form convolutional expression, which parallelizes on GPU and yields up to $33.7\times$ speedup over the naive recurrence. We furthermore rely on a two-phase training schedule that separates temporal structure discovery from reconstruction learning, as suggested by a theoretical analysis of the gradient when using a linear forecasting model. AdaRDiff attains state-of-the-art forecast accuracy across eight benchmarks spanning electricity, weather, traffic, and energy, at negligible parameter cost. Furthermore, it is designed as a plug-and-play module: integrating AdaRDiff improves eight diverse backbones, from linear models to Transformers, in the large majority of cases, by up to $25.9\%$ with a linear backbone and $18.3\%$ with iTransformer.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Foundation Models and Fine-Tuning: Toward a New Generation of Models for Time Series Forecasting

Inspired by recent breakthroughs in large language models for natural language processing, foundation models have emerged as a promising paradigm for zero-shot time series forecasting, enabling accurate predictions on datasets never seen during pre-training. Ranging from tens to hundreds of millions of parameters, these models are pre-trained on vast and diverse collections of time series, learning generalizable representations that support both point and probabilistic forecasting. This approach alleviates the need for dataset-specific model design and manual tuning, offering a unified solution across forecasting problems. In this work, we review the main architectures, pre-training strategies, and optimization methods underpinning these models. We further investigate post-pre-training fine-tuning of selected foundation models to enhance their performance on specific datasets. Our empirical results demonstrate that this step consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the zero-shot baseline.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Unveiling the Structure of Do-Calculus Reasoning via Derivation Graphs

The do-calculus defines a general system of inference for interventional queries, allowing causal quantities to be transformed through successive applications of its rules. This process induces a rich space of equivalent interventional expressions, but combining and ordering these rules remains challenging. In this work, we introduce derivation graphs, which represent how do-calculus rules are applied and combined, and characterize the full space of observational and interventional probabilities which are equivalent under the do-calculus. The structure of these graphs yields a simple procedure that uses at most four applications of do-calculus rules. Finally, we show how applying identification algorithms to equivalent causal queries produces multiple valid estimands for the same causal quantity, eventually yielding more efficient estimators.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

DRIV-EX: Counterfactual Explanations for Driving LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as reasoning engines in autonomous driving, yet their decision-making remains opaque. We propose to study their decision process through counterfactual explanations, which identify the minimal semantic changes to a scene description required to alter a driving plan. We introduce DRIV-EX, a method that leverages gradient-based optimization on continuous embeddings to identify the input shifts required to flip the model's decision. Crucially, to avoid the incoherent text typical of unconstrained continuous optimization, DRIV-EX uses these optimized embeddings solely as a semantic guide: they are used to bias a controlled decoding process that re-generates the original scene description. This approach effectively steers the generation toward the counterfactual target while guaranteeing the linguistic fluency, domain validity, and proximity to the original input, essential for interpretability. Evaluated using the LC-LLM planner on a textual transcription of the highD dataset, DRIV-EX generates valid, fluent counterfactuals more reliably than existing baselines. It successfully exposes latent biases and provides concrete insights to improve the robustness of LLM-based driving agents. The code is available at "https://github.com/Amaia-CARDIEL/DRIV_EX" .

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Mod\`eles de Fondation et Ajustement : Vers une Nouvelle G\'en\'eration de Mod\`eles pour la Pr\'evision des S\'eries Temporelles

Inspired by recent advances in large language models, foundation models have been developed for zero-shot time series forecasting, enabling prediction on datasets unseen during pretraining. These large-scale models, trained on vast collections of time series, learn generalizable representations for both point and probabilistic forecasting, reducing the need for task-specific architectures and manual tuning. In this work, we review the main architectures, pretraining strategies, and optimization methods used in such models, and study the effect of fine-tuning after pretraining to enhance their performance on specific datasets. Our empirical results show that fine-tuning generally improves zero-shot forecasting capabilities, especially for long-term horizons.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Identifiability in Causal Abstractions: A Hierarchy of Criteria

Identifying the effect of a treatment from observational data typically requires assuming a fully specified causal diagram. However, such diagrams are rarely known in practice, especially in complex or high-dimensional settings. To overcome this limitation, recent works have explored the use of causal abstractions-simplified representations that retain partial causal information. In this paper, we consider causal abstractions formalized as collections of causal diagrams, and focus on the identifiability of causal queries within such collections. We introduce and formalize several identifiability criteria under this setting. Our main contribution is to organize these criteria into a structured hierarchy, highlighting their relationships. This hierarchical view enables a clearer understanding of what can be identified under varying levels of causal knowledge. We illustrate our framework through examples from the literature and provide tools to reason about identifiability when full causal knowledge is unavailable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Complete Characterization for Adjustment in Summary Causal Graphs of Time Series

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total causal effect can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be estimated from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions, in the context of time series when only an abstraction of the true causal graph, in the form of a summary causal graph, is available. We propose in particular both necessary and sufficient conditions for the adjustment criterion, which we show is complete in this setting, and provide a pseudo-linear algorithm to decide whether the query is identifiable or not.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Identifiability by common backdoor in summary causal graphs of time series

The identifiability problem for interventions aims at assessing whether the total effect of some given interventions can be written with a do-free formula, and thus be computed from observational data only. We study this problem, considering multiple interventions and multiple effects, in the context of time series when only abstractions of the true causal graph in the form of summary causal graphs are available. We focus in this study on identifiability by a common backdoor set, and establish, for time series with and without consistency throughout time, conditions under which such a set exists. We also provide algorithms of limited complexity to decide whether the problem is identifiable or not.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Long-Document Reranking via Block-Level Embeddings and Top-k Interaction Refinement

Dense encoders and LLM-based rerankers struggle with long documents: single-vector representations dilute fine-grained relevance, while cross-encoders are often too expensive for practical reranking. We present an efficient long-document reranking framework based on block-level embeddings. Each document is segmented into short blocks and encoded into block embeddings that can be precomputed offline. Given a query, we encode it once and score each candidate document by aggregating top-k query-block similarities with a simple weighted sum, yielding a strong and interpretable block-level relevance signal. To capture dependencies among the selected blocks and suppress redundancy, we introduce Top-k Interaction Refinement (TIR), a lightweight setwise module that applies query-conditioned attention over the top-k blocks and produces a bounded residual correction to block scores. TIR introduces only a small number of parameters and operates on top-k blocks, keeping query-time overhead low. Experiments on long-document reranking benchmarks (TREC DL and MLDR-zh) show that block representations substantially improve over single-vector encoders, and TIR provides consistent additional gains over strong long-document reranking baselines while maintaining practical reranking latency. For example, on TREC DL 2023, NDCG at 10 improves from 0.395 to 0.451 with the same block budget k = 65, using at most 4095 tokens. The resulting model supports interpretability by exposing which blocks drive each document's score and how refinement redistributes their contributions.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

GIFT: A Framework Towards Global Interpretable Faithful Textual Explanations of Vision Classifiers

Understanding the decision processes of deep vision models is essential for their safe and trustworthy deployment in real-world settings. Existing explainability approaches, such as saliency maps or concept-based analyses, often suffer from limited faithfulness, local scope, or ambiguous semantics. We introduce GIFT, a post-hoc framework that aims to derive Global, Interpretable, Faithful, and Textual explanations for vision classifiers. GIFT begins by generating a large set of faithful, local visual counterfactuals, then employs vision-language models to translate these counterfactuals into natural-language descriptions of visual changes. These local explanations are aggregated by a large language model into concise, human-readable hypotheses about the model's global decision rules. Crucially, GIFT includes a verification stage that quantitatively assesses the causal effect of each proposed explanation by performing image-based interventions, ensuring that the final textual explanations remain faithful to the model's true reasoning process. Across diverse datasets, including the synthetic CLEVR benchmark, the real-world CelebA faces, and the complex BDD driving scenes, GIFT reveals not only meaningful classification rules but also unexpected biases and latent concepts driving model behavior. Altogether, GIFT bridges the gap between local counterfactual reasoning and global interpretability, offering a principled approach to causally grounded textual explanations for vision models.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

EviRerank: Adaptive Evidence Construction for Long-Document LLM Reranking

Decoder-only LLM rerankers struggle with long documents: inference is costly and relevance signals can be diluted by irrelevant context. Motivated by a diagnostic attention analysis suggesting that appended irrelevant context can weaken query-focused interactions, we propose EviRerank, an evidence-based long-document reranking framework for decoder-only LLMs. EviRerank first scores document blocks with a lightweight selector, such as BM25, a bi-encoder, or a cross-encoder. It then constructs a compact reranking context under a hard token cap by dynamically budgeting evidence blocks with Adaptive Evidence Budgeting (AEB) and adding a compact global cue via Summary Augmentation (SA). Finally, the compact evidence context is reranked with a decoder-only LLM. Across TREC DL'19, DL'22, DL'23, and MLDR-zh, EviRerank consistently outperforms full-document LLM reranking and strong block-selection baselines while reducing input length. RankZephyr-7B validation further confirms transfer to listwise reranking. On TREC DL'19, EviRerank reaches up to 0.744 nDCG@10 and 0.307 MAP, improving over RankLLaMA while using a compact evidence context.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

Ayn: A Tiny yet Competitive Indian Legal Language Model Pretrained from Scratch

Decoder-only Large Language Models (LLMs) are currently the model of choice for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. Through instruction fine-tuning and prompting approaches, such LLMs have been efficiently used to solve both general and domain-specific tasks. However, they are costly to train and, to a certain extent, costly to use as well, and one can wonder whether LLMs can be replaced by domain-specific Tiny Language Models (TLMs), which typically contain less than 100M parameters. We address this question in this study by comparing the performance of an 88M TLM pretrained from scratch for 185 A100 hours on a specific domain with a domain-specific tokenizer (here, the Indian legal domain) with LLMs of various sizes between 1B and 8B for solving domain-specific tasks. We show in particular that our legal TLM, Ayn, can indeed outperform LLMs up to 80 times larger on the legal case judgment prediction task, rival LLMs up to 30 times larger on the summarization task, and still be competitive with these larger LLMs on general tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Domain Adaptation for Dense Retrieval and Conversational Dense Retrieval through Self-Supervision by Meticulous Pseudo-Relevance Labeling

Recent studies have demonstrated that the ability of dense retrieval models to generalize to target domains with different distributions is limited, which contrasts with the results obtained with interaction-based models. Prior attempts to mitigate this challenge involved leveraging adversarial learning and query generation approaches, but both approaches nevertheless resulted in limited improvements. In this paper, we propose to combine the query-generation approach with a self-supervision approach in which pseudo-relevance labels are automatically generated on the target domain. To accomplish this, a T5-3B model is utilized for pseudo-positive labeling, and meticulous hard negatives are chosen. We also apply this strategy on conversational dense retrieval model for conversational search. A similar pseudo-labeling approach is used, but with the addition of a query-rewriting module to rewrite conversational queries for subsequent labeling. This proposed approach enables a model's domain adaptation with real queries and documents from the target dataset. Experiments on standard dense retrieval and conversational dense retrieval models both demonstrate improvements on baseline models when they are fine-tuned on the pseudo-relevance labeled data.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

On the Fly Detection of Root Causes from Observed Data with Application to IT Systems

This paper introduces a new structural causal model tailored for representing threshold-based IT systems and presents a new algorithm designed to rapidly detect root causes of anomalies in such systems. When root causes are not causally related, the method is proven to be correct; while an extension is proposed based on the intervention of an agent to relax this assumption. Our algorithm and its agent-based extension leverage causal discovery from offline data and engage in subgraph traversal when encountering new anomalies in online data. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our methods, even when applied to data generated from alternative structural causal models or real IT monitoring data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Paramanu: Compact and Competitive Monolingual Language Models for Low-Resource Morphologically Rich Indian Languages

Multilingual large language models (LLMs) are expensive to pretrain and often suffer from imbalances across languages and datasets, English-centric bias, tokenizer oversegmentation for morphologically rich low-resource languages, and the curse of multilinguality. We introduce PARAMANU, the first family of Indian-only autoregressive language models trained from scratch on open-source language-specific data for the five most spoken Indian languages: Bengali, Hindi, Marathi, Tamil, and Telugu. All models are designed for affordability and are trained on a single GPU with a budget under $1,000, allowing under-resourced researchers to build competitive language models. To address low-resource challenges, we develop morphology-aligned, low-fertility tokenizers, propose an interpolation-based method for token position indices in RoPE based scaling to train longer sequences efficiently. We also create instruction-tuning datasets in Bangla that are translated to the other four languages. Despite their small size (108M-367M parameters), Paramanu achieves a strong performance-efficiency tradeoff and outperforms most larger multilingual models across all five languages. Our collection is available at https://huggingface.co/collections/mitodru/paramanu.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Identifiability of total effects from abstractions of time series causal graphs

We study the problem of identifiability of the total effect of an intervention from observational time series in the situation, common in practice, where one only has access to abstractions of the true causal graph. We consider here two abstractions: the extended summary causal graph, which conflates all lagged causal relations but distinguishes between lagged and instantaneous relations, and the summary causal graph which does not give any indication about the lag between causal relations. We show that the total effect is always identifiable in extended summary causal graphs and provide sufficient conditions for identifiability in summary causal graphs. We furthermore provide adjustment sets allowing to estimate the total effect whenever it is identifiable.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Case Studies of Causal Discovery from IT Monitoring Time Series

Information technology (IT) systems are vital for modern businesses, handling data storage, communication, and process automation. Monitoring these systems is crucial for their proper functioning and efficiency, as it allows collecting extensive observational time series data for analysis. The interest in causal discovery is growing in IT monitoring systems as knowing causal relations between different components of the IT system helps in reducing downtime, enhancing system performance and identifying root causes of anomalies and incidents. It also allows proactive prediction of future issues through historical data analysis. Despite its potential benefits, applying causal discovery algorithms on IT monitoring data poses challenges, due to the complexity of the data. For instance, IT monitoring data often contains misaligned time series, sleeping time series, timestamp errors and missing values. This paper presents case studies on applying causal discovery algorithms to different IT monitoring datasets, highlighting benefits and ongoing challenges.

cs.LG↗