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Eric Horvitz

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Horvitz.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Can Generalist Foundation Models Outcompete Special-Purpose Tuning? Case Study in Medicine

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety

Advanced AI models hold the promise of tremendous benefits for humanity, but society needs to proactively manage the accompanying risks. In this paper, we focus on what we term "frontier AI" models: highly capable foundation models that could possess dangerous capabilities sufficient to pose severe risks to public safety. Frontier AI models pose a distinct regulatory challenge: dangerous capabilities can arise unexpectedly; it is difficult to robustly prevent a deployed model from being misused; and, it is difficult to stop a model's capabilities from proliferating broadly. To address these challenges, at least three building blocks for the regulation of frontier models are needed: (1) standard-setting processes to identify appropriate requirements for frontier AI developers, (2) registration and reporting requirements to provide regulators with visibility into frontier AI development processes, and (3) mechanisms to ensure compliance with safety standards for the development and deployment of frontier AI models. Industry self-regulation is an important first step. However, wider societal discussions and government intervention will be needed to create standards and to ensure compliance with them. We consider several options to this end, including granting enforcement powers to supervisory authorities and licensure regimes for frontier AI models. Finally, we propose an initial set of safety standards. These include conducting pre-deployment risk assessments; external scrutiny of model behavior; using risk assessments to inform deployment decisions; and monitoring and responding to new information about model capabilities and uses post-deployment. We hope this discussion contributes to the broader conversation on how to balance public safety risks and innovation benefits from advances at the frontier of AI development.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2023

Benchmarking Spatial Relationships in Text-to-Image Generation

Spatial understanding is a fundamental aspect of computer vision and integral for human-level reasoning about images, making it an important component for grounded language understanding. While recent text-to-image synthesis (T2I) models have shown unprecedented improvements in photorealism, it is unclear whether they have reliable spatial understanding capabilities. We investigate the ability of T2I models to generate correct spatial relationships among objects and present VISOR, an evaluation metric that captures how accurately the spatial relationship described in text is generated in the image. To benchmark existing models, we introduce a dataset, $\mathrm{SR}_{2D}$, that contains sentences describing two or more objects and the spatial relationships between them. We construct an automated evaluation pipeline to recognize objects and their spatial relationships, and employ it in a large-scale evaluation of T2I models. Our experiments reveal a surprising finding that, although state-of-the-art T2I models exhibit high image quality, they are severely limited in their ability to generate multiple objects or the specified spatial relations between them. Our analyses demonstrate several biases and artifacts of T2I models such as the difficulty with generating multiple objects, a bias towards generating the first object mentioned, spatially inconsistent outputs for equivalent relationships, and a correlation between object co-occurrence and spatial understanding capabilities. We conduct a human study that shows the alignment between VISOR and human judgement about spatial understanding. We offer the $\mathrm{SR}_{2D}$ dataset and the VISOR metric to the community in support of T2I reasoning research.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2023

Food Choice Mimicry on a Large University Campus

Social influence is a strong determinant of food consumption, which in turn influences health. Although consistent observations have been made on the role of social factors in driving similarities in food consumption, much less is known about the precise governing mechanisms. We study social influence on food choice through carefully designed causal analyses, leveraging the sequential nature of shop queues on a major university campus. In particular, we consider a large number of adjacent purchases where a focal user immediately follows another user ("partner") in the checkout queue and both make a purchase. Identifying the partner's impact on the focal user, we find strong evidence of a specific behavioral mechanism for how dietary similarities between individuals arise: purchasing mimicry, a phenomenon where the focal user copies the partner's purchases. For instance, across food additions purchased during lunchtime together with a meal, we find that the focal user is significantly more likely to purchase the food item when the partner buys the item, v.s. when the partner does not, increasing the purchasing probability by 14% in absolute terms, or by 83% in relative terms. The effect is observed across all food types, but largest for condiments, and smallest for soft drinks. We find that no such effect is observed when a focal user is compared to a random (rather than directly preceding) partner. Furthermore, purchasing mimicry is present across age, gender, and status subpopulations, but strongest for students and the youngest persons. Finally, we find a dose-response relationship whereby mimicry decreases as proximity in the purchasing queue decreases. The results of this study elucidate the behavioral mechanism of purchasing mimicry and have further implications for understanding and improving dietary behaviors on campus.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2023

Accurate Measures of Vaccination and Concerns of Vaccine Holdouts from Web Search Logs

To design effective vaccine policies, policymakers need detailed data about who has been vaccinated, who is holding out, and why. However, existing data in the US are insufficient: reported vaccination rates are often delayed or missing, and surveys of vaccine hesitancy are limited by high-level questions and self-report biases. Here, we show how large-scale search engine logs and machine learning can be leveraged to fill these gaps and provide novel insights about vaccine intentions and behaviors. First, we develop a vaccine intent classifier that can accurately detect when a user is seeking the COVID-19 vaccine on search. Our classifier demonstrates strong agreement with CDC vaccination rates, with correlations above 0.86, and estimates vaccine intent rates to the level of ZIP codes in real time, allowing us to pinpoint more granular trends in vaccine seeking across regions, demographics, and time. To investigate vaccine hesitancy, we use our classifier to identify two groups, vaccine early adopters and vaccine holdouts. We find that holdouts, compared to early adopters matched on covariates, are 69% more likely to click on untrusted news sites. Furthermore, we organize 25,000 vaccine-related URLs into a hierarchical ontology of vaccine concerns, and we find that holdouts are far more concerned about vaccine requirements, vaccine development and approval, and vaccine myths, and even within holdouts, concerns vary significantly across demographic groups. Finally, we explore the temporal dynamics of vaccine concerns and vaccine seeking, and find that key indicators emerge when individuals convert from holding out to preparing to accept the vaccine.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2023

A Computational Inflection for Scientific Discovery

We stand at the foot of a significant inflection in the trajectory of scientific discovery. As society continues on its fast-paced digital transformation, so does humankind's collective scientific knowledge and discourse. We now read and write papers in digitized form, and a great deal of the formal and informal processes of science are captured digitally -- including papers, preprints and books, code and datasets, conference presentations, and interactions in social networks and collaboration and communication platforms. The transition has led to the creation and growth of a tremendous amount of information -- much of which is available for public access -- opening exciting opportunities for computational models and systems that analyze and harness it. In parallel, exponential growth in data processing power has fueled remarkable advances in artificial intelligence, including large neural language models capable of learning powerful representations from unstructured text. Dramatic changes in scientific communication -- such as the advent of the first scientific journal in the 17th century -- have historically catalyzed revolutions in scientific thought. The confluence of societal and computational trends suggests that computer science is poised to ignite a revolution in the scientific process itself.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Evaluation of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 for supporting real-world information needs in healthcare delivery

Despite growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in healthcare, current explorations do not assess the real-world utility and safety of LLMs in clinical settings. Our objective was to determine whether two LLMs can serve information needs submitted by physicians as questions to an informatics consultation service in a safe and concordant manner. Sixty six questions from an informatics consult service were submitted to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 via simple prompts. 12 physicians assessed the LLM responses' possibility of patient harm and concordance with existing reports from an informatics consultation service. Physician assessments were summarized based on majority vote. For no questions did a majority of physicians deem either LLM response as harmful. For GPT-3.5, responses to 8 questions were concordant with the informatics consult report, 20 discordant, and 9 were unable to be assessed. There were 29 responses with no majority on "Agree", "Disagree", and "Unable to assess". For GPT-4, responses to 13 questions were concordant, 15 discordant, and 3 were unable to be assessed. There were 35 responses with no majority. Responses from both LLMs were largely devoid of overt harm, but less than 20% of the responses agreed with an answer from an informatics consultation service, responses contained hallucinated references, and physicians were divided on what constitutes harm. These results suggest that while general purpose LLMs are able to provide safe and credible responses, they often do not meet the specific information need of a given question. A definitive evaluation of the usefulness of LLMs in healthcare settings will likely require additional research on prompt engineering, calibration, and custom-tailoring of general purpose models.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2023

Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4

Artificial intelligence (AI) researchers have been developing and refining large language models (LLMs) that exhibit remarkable capabilities across a variety of domains and tasks, challenging our understanding of learning and cognition. The latest model developed by OpenAI, GPT-4, was trained using an unprecedented scale of compute and data. In this paper, we report on our investigation of an early version of GPT-4, when it was still in active development by OpenAI. We contend that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new cohort of LLMs (along with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models. We discuss the rising capabilities and implications of these models. We demonstrate that, beyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting. Moreover, in all of these tasks, GPT-4's performance is strikingly close to human-level performance, and often vastly surpasses prior models such as ChatGPT. Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system. In our exploration of GPT-4, we put special emphasis on discovering its limitations, and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction. We conclude with reflections on societal influences of the recent technological leap and future research directions.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Capabilities of GPT-4 on Medical Challenge Problems

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding and generation across various domains, including medicine. We present a comprehensive evaluation of GPT-4, a state-of-the-art LLM, on medical competency examinations and benchmark datasets. GPT-4 is a general-purpose model that is not specialized for medical problems through training or engineered to solve clinical tasks. Our analysis covers two sets of official practice materials for the USMLE, a three-step examination program used to assess clinical competency and grant licensure in the United States. We also evaluate performance on the MultiMedQA suite of benchmark datasets. Beyond measuring model performance, experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of test questions containing both text and images on model performance, probe for memorization of content during training, and study probability calibration, which is of critical importance in high-stakes applications like medicine. Our results show that GPT-4, without any specialized prompt crafting, exceeds the passing score on USMLE by over 20 points and outperforms earlier general-purpose models (GPT-3.5) as well as models specifically fine-tuned on medical knowledge (Med-PaLM, a prompt-tuned version of Flan-PaLM 540B). In addition, GPT-4 is significantly better calibrated than GPT-3.5, demonstrating a much-improved ability to predict the likelihood that its answers are correct. We also explore the behavior of the model qualitatively through a case study that shows the ability of GPT-4 to explain medical reasoning, personalize explanations to students, and interactively craft new counterfactual scenarios around a medical case. Implications of the findings are discussed for potential uses of GPT-4 in medical education, assessment, and clinical practice, with appropriate attention to challenges of accuracy and safety.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Ideal Abstractions for Decision-Focused Learning

We present a methodology for formulating simplifying abstractions in machine learning systems by identifying and harnessing the utility structure of decisions. Machine learning tasks commonly involve high-dimensional output spaces (e.g., predictions for every pixel in an image or node in a graph), even though a coarser output would often suffice for downstream decision-making (e.g., regions of an image instead of pixels). Developers often hand-engineer abstractions of the output space, but numerous abstractions are possible and it is unclear how the choice of output space for a model impacts its usefulness in downstream decision-making. We propose a method that configures the output space automatically in order to minimize the loss of decision-relevant information. Taking a geometric perspective, we formulate a step of the algorithm as a projection of the probability simplex, termed fold, that minimizes the total loss of decision-related information in the H-entropy sense. Crucially, learning in the abstracted outcome space requires less data, leading to a net improvement in decision quality. We demonstrate the method in two domains: data acquisition for deep neural network training and a closed-loop wildfire management task.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

On the Horizon: Interactive and Compositional Deepfakes

Over a five-year period, computing methods for generating high-fidelity, fictional depictions of people and events moved from exotic demonstrations by computer science research teams into ongoing use as a tool of disinformation. The methods, referred to with the portmanteau of "deepfakes," have been used to create compelling audiovisual content. Here, I share challenges ahead with malevolent uses of two classes of deepfakes that we can expect to come into practice with costly implications for society: interactive and compositional deepfakes. Interactive deepfakes have the capability to impersonate people with realistic interactive behaviors, taking advantage of advances in multimodal interaction. Compositional deepfakes leverage synthetic content in larger disinformation plans that integrate sets of deepfakes over time with observed, expected, and engineered world events to create persuasive synthetic histories. Synthetic histories can be constructed manually but may one day be guided by adversarial generative explanation (AGE) techniques. In the absence of mitigations, interactive and compositional deepfakes threaten to move us closer to a post-epistemic world, where fact cannot be distinguished from fiction. I shall describe interactive and compositional deepfakes and reflect about cautions and potential mitigations to defend against them.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2022

Imagined versus Remembered Stories: Quantifying Differences in Narrative Flow

Lifelong experiences and learned knowledge lead to shared expectations about how common situations tend to unfold. Such knowledge of narrative event flow enables people to weave together a story. However, comparable computational tools to evaluate the flow of events in narratives are limited. We quantify the differences between autobiographical and imagined stories by introducing sequentiality, a measure of narrative flow of events, drawing probabilistic inferences from a cutting-edge large language model (GPT-3). Sequentiality captures the flow of a narrative by comparing the probability of a sentence with and without its preceding story context. We applied our measure to study thousands of diary-like stories, collected from crowdworkers about either a recent remembered experience or an imagined story on the same topic. The results show that imagined stories have higher sequentiality than autobiographical stories and that the sequentiality of autobiographical stories increases when the memories are retold several months later. In pursuit of deeper understandings of how sequentiality measures the flow of narratives, we explore proportions of major and minor events in story sentences, as annotated by crowdworkers. We find that lower sequentiality is associated with higher proportions of major events. The methods and results highlight opportunities to use cutting-edge computational analyses, such as sequentiality, on large corpora of matched imagined and autobiographical stories to investigate the influences of memory and reasoning on language generation processes.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2022

Who Goes First? Influences of Human-AI Workflow on Decision Making in Clinical Imaging

Details of the designs and mechanisms in support of human-AI collaboration must be considered in the real-world fielding of AI technologies. A critical aspect of interaction design for AI-assisted human decision making are policies about the display and sequencing of AI inferences within larger decision-making workflows. We have a poor understanding of the influences of making AI inferences available before versus after human review of a diagnostic task at hand. We explore the effects of providing AI assistance at the start of a diagnostic session in radiology versus after the radiologist has made a provisional decision. We conducted a user study where 19 veterinary radiologists identified radiographic findings present in patients' X-ray images, with the aid of an AI tool. We employed two workflow configurations to analyze (i) anchoring effects, (ii) human-AI team diagnostic performance and agreement, (iii) time spent and confidence in decision making, and (iv) perceived usefulness of the AI. We found that participants who are asked to register provisional responses in advance of reviewing AI inferences are less likely to agree with the AI regardless of whether the advice is accurate and, in instances of disagreement with the AI, are less likely to seek the second opinion of a colleague. These participants also reported the AI advice to be less useful. Surprisingly, requiring provisional decisions on cases in advance of the display of AI inferences did not lengthen the time participants spent on the task. The study provides generalizable and actionable insights for the deployment of clinical AI tools in human-in-the-loop systems and introduces a methodology for studying alternative designs for human-AI collaboration. We make our experimental platform available as open source to facilitate future research on the influence of alternate designs on human-AI workflows.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2022

Bursting Scientific Filter Bubbles: Boosting Innovation via Novel Author Discovery

Isolated silos of scientific research and the growing challenge of information overload limit awareness across the literature and hinder innovation. Algorithmic curation and recommendation, which often prioritize relevance, can further reinforce these informational "filter bubbles." In response, we describe Bridger, a system for facilitating discovery of scholars and their work. We construct a faceted representation of authors with information gleaned from their papers and inferred author personas, and use it to develop an approach that locates commonalities and contrasts between scientists to balance relevance and novelty. In studies with computer science researchers, this approach helps users discover authors considered useful for generating novel research directions. We also demonstrate an approach for displaying information about authors, boosting the ability to understand the work of new, unfamiliar scholars. Our analysis reveals that Bridger connects authors who have different citation profiles and publish in different venues, raising the prospect of bridging diverse scientific communities.

cs.DL↗
arXiv2022

A Search Engine for Discovery of Scientific Challenges and Directions

Keeping track of scientific challenges, advances and emerging directions is a fundamental part of research. However, researchers face a flood of papers that hinders discovery of important knowledge. In biomedicine, this directly impacts human lives. To address this problem, we present a novel task of extraction and search of scientific challenges and directions, to facilitate rapid knowledge discovery. We construct and release an expert-annotated corpus of texts sampled from full-length papers, labeled with novel semantic categories that generalize across many types of challenges and directions. We focus on a large corpus of interdisciplinary work relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from biomedicine to areas such as AI and economics. We apply a model trained on our data to identify challenges and directions across the corpus and build a dedicated search engine. In experiments with 19 researchers and clinicians using our system, we outperform a popular scientific search engine in assisting knowledge discovery. Finally, we show that models trained on our resource generalize to the wider biomedical domain and to AI papers, highlighting its broad utility. We make our data, model and search engine publicly available. https://challenges.apps.allenai.org/

cs.CL↗
arXiv2021

Ideal Partition of Resources for Metareasoning

We can achieve significant gains in the value of computation by metareasoning about the nature or extent of base-level problem solving before executing a solution. However, resources that are irrevocably committed to metareasoning are not available for executing a solution. Thus, it is important to determine the portion of resources we wish to apply to metareasoning and control versus to the execution of a solution plan. Recent research on rational agency has highlighted the importance of limiting the consumption of resources by metareasoning machinery. We shall introduce the metareasoning-partition problem--the problem of ideally apportioning costly reasoning resources to planning a solution versus applying resource to executing a solution to a problem. We exercise prototypical metareasoning-partition models to probe the relationships between time allocated to metareasoning and to execution for different problem classes. Finally, we examine the value of metareasoning in the context of our functional analyses.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2021

Domain-Specific Pretraining for Vertical Search: Case Study on Biomedical Literature

Information overload is a prevalent challenge in many high-value domains. A prominent case in point is the explosion of the biomedical literature on COVID-19, which swelled to hundreds of thousands of papers in a matter of months. In general, biomedical literature expands by two papers every minute, totalling over a million new papers every year. Search in the biomedical realm, and many other vertical domains is challenging due to the scarcity of direct supervision from click logs. Self-supervised learning has emerged as a promising direction to overcome the annotation bottleneck. We propose a general approach for vertical search based on domain-specific pretraining and present a case study for the biomedical domain. Despite being substantially simpler and not using any relevance labels for training or development, our method performs comparably or better than the best systems in the official TREC-COVID evaluation, a COVID-related biomedical search competition. Using distributed computing in modern cloud infrastructure, our system can scale to tens of millions of articles on PubMed and has been deployed as Microsoft Biomedical Search, a new search experience for biomedical literature: https://aka.ms/biomedsearch.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2021

Key Considerations for the Responsible Development and Fielding of Artificial Intelligence

We review key considerations, practices, and areas for future work aimed at the responsible development and fielding of AI technologies. We describe critical challenges and make recommendations on topics that should be given priority consideration, practices that should be implemented, and policies that should be defined or updated to reflect developments with capabilities and uses of AI technologies. The Key Considerations were developed with a lens for adoption by U.S. government departments and agencies critical to national security. However, they are relevant more generally for the design, construction, and use of AI systems.

cs.CY↗