arXiv subjects

Eric Nalisnick

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Nalisnick.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

On Continuous Monitoring of Risk Violations under Unknown Shift

Machine learning systems deployed in the real world must operate under dynamic and often unpredictable distribution shifts. This challenges the validity of statistical safety assurances on the system's risk established beforehand. Common risk control frameworks rely on fixed assumptions and lack mechanisms to continuously monitor deployment reliability. In this work, we propose a general framework for the real-time monitoring of risk violations in evolving data streams. Leveraging the 'testing by betting' paradigm, we propose a sequential hypothesis testing procedure to detect violations of bounded risks associated with the model's decision-making mechanism, while ensuring control on the false alarm rate. Our method operates under minimal assumptions on the nature of encountered shifts, rendering it broadly applicable. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach by monitoring risks in outlier detection and set prediction under a variety of shifts.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Generative Uncertainty in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human inspection remains a challenging task. To address this, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimating generative uncertainty of synthetic samples. We outline how to make Bayesian inference practical for large, modern generative models and introduce a new semantic likelihood (evaluated in the latent space of a feature extractor) to address the challenges posed by high-dimensional sample spaces. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed generative uncertainty effectively identifies poor-quality samples and significantly outperforms existing uncertainty-based methods. Notably, our Bayesian framework can be applied post-hoc to any pretrained diffusion or flow matching model (via the Laplace approximation), and we propose simple yet effective techniques to minimize its computational overhead during sampling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Are vision language models robust to uncertain inputs?

Robustness against uncertain and ambiguous inputs is a critical challenge for deep learning models. While recent advancements in large scale vision language models (VLMs, e.g. GPT4o) might suggest that increasing model and training dataset size would mitigate this issue, our empirical evaluation shows a more complicated picture. Testing models using two classic uncertainty quantification tasks, anomaly detection and classification under inherently ambiguous conditions, we find that newer and larger VLMs indeed exhibit improved robustness compared to earlier models, but still suffer from a tendency to strictly follow instructions, often causing them to hallucinate confident responses even when faced with unclear or anomalous inputs. Remarkably, for natural images such as ImageNet, this limitation can be overcome without pipeline modifications: simply prompting models to abstain from uncertain predictions enables significant reliability gains, achieving near-perfect robustness in several settings. However, for domain-specific tasks such as galaxy morphology classification, a lack of specialized knowledge prevents reliable uncertainty estimation. Finally, we propose a novel mechanism based on caption diversity to reveal a model's internal uncertainty, enabling practitioners to predict when models will successfully abstain without relying on labeled data.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Max-Rank: Efficient Multiple Testing for Conformal Prediction

Multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) frequently arises in scientific inquiries, and concurrent testing of multiple hypotheses inflates the risk of Type-I errors or false positives, rendering MHT corrections essential. This paper addresses MHT in the context of conformal prediction, a flexible framework for predictive uncertainty quantification. Some conformal applications give rise to simultaneous testing, and positive dependencies among tests typically exist. We introduce $\texttt{max-rank}$, a novel correction that exploits these dependencies whilst efficiently controlling the family-wise error rate. Inspired by existing permutation-based corrections, $\texttt{max-rank}$ leverages rank order information to improve performance and integrates readily with any conformal procedure. We establish its theoretical and empirical advantages over the common Bonferroni correction and its compatibility with conformal prediction, highlighting the potential to strengthen predictive uncertainty estimates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

ELBOing Stein: Variational Bayes with Stein Mixture Inference

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) [Liu and Wang, 2016] performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to underestimating uncertainty [Ba et al., 2021], even for moderately-dimensional models such as small Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To address this issue, we generalize SVGD by letting each particle parameterize a component distribution in a mixture model. Our method, Stein Mixture Inference (SMI), optimizes a lower bound to the evidence (ELBO) and introduces user-specified guides parameterized by particles. SMI extends the Nonlinear SVGD framework [Wang and Liu, 2019] to the case of variational Bayes. SMI effectively avoids variance collapse, judging by a previously described test developed for this purpose, and performs well on standard data sets. In addition, SMI requires considerably fewer particles than SVGD to accurately estimate uncertainty for small BNNs. The synergistic combination of NSVGD, ELBO optimization and user-specified guides establishes a promising approach towards variational Bayesian inference in the case of tall and wide data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DefVerify: Do Hate Speech Models Reflect Their Dataset's Definition?

When building a predictive model, it is often difficult to ensure that application-specific requirements are encoded by the model that will eventually be deployed. Consider researchers working on hate speech detection. They will have an idea of what is considered hate speech, but building a model that reflects their view accurately requires preserving those ideals throughout the workflow of data set construction and model training. Complications such as sampling bias, annotation bias, and model misspecification almost always arise, possibly resulting in a gap between the application specification and the model's actual behavior upon deployment. To address this issue for hate speech detection, we propose DefVerify: a 3-step procedure that (i) encodes a user-specified definition of hate speech, (ii) quantifies to what extent the model reflects the intended definition, and (iii) tries to identify the point of failure in the workflow. We use DefVerify to find gaps between definition and model behavior when applied to six popular hate speech benchmark datasets.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

On Calibration in Multi-Distribution Learning

Modern challenges of robustness, fairness, and decision-making in machine learning have led to the formulation of multi-distribution learning (MDL) frameworks in which a predictor is optimized across multiple distributions. We study the calibration properties of MDL to better understand how the predictor performs uniformly across the multiple distributions. Through classical results on decomposing proper scoring losses, we first derive the Bayes optimal rule for MDL, demonstrating that it maximizes the generalized entropy of the associated loss function. Our analysis reveals that while this approach ensures minimal worst-case loss, it can lead to non-uniform calibration errors across the multiple distributions and there is an inherent calibration-refinement trade-off, even at Bayes optimality. Our results highlight a critical limitation: despite the promise of MDL, one must use caution when designing predictors tailored to multiple distributions so as to minimize disparity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Generative Model of Symmetry Transformations

Correctly capturing the symmetry transformations of data can lead to efficient models with strong generalization capabilities, though methods incorporating symmetries often require prior knowledge. While recent advancements have been made in learning those symmetries directly from the dataset, most of this work has focused on the discriminative setting. In this paper, we take inspiration from group theoretic ideas to construct a generative model that explicitly aims to capture the data's approximate symmetries. This results in a model that, given a prespecified but broad set of possible symmetries, learns to what extent, if at all, those symmetries are actually present. Our model can be seen as a generative process for data augmentation. We provide a simple algorithm for learning our generative model and empirically demonstrate its ability to capture symmetries under affine and color transformations, in an interpretable way. Combining our symmetry model with standard generative models results in higher marginal test-log-likelihoods and improved data efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fast yet Safe: Early-Exiting with Risk Control

Scaling machine learning models significantly improves their performance. However, such gains come at the cost of inference being slow and resource-intensive. Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) offer a promising solution: they accelerate inference by allowing intermediate layers to exit and produce a prediction early. Yet a fundamental issue with EENNs is how to determine when to exit without severely degrading performance. In other words, when is it 'safe' for an EENN to go 'fast'? To address this issue, we investigate how to adapt frameworks of risk control to EENNs. Risk control offers a distribution-free, post-hoc solution that tunes the EENN's exiting mechanism so that exits only occur when the output is of sufficient quality. We empirically validate our insights on a range of vision and language tasks, demonstrating that risk control can produce substantial computational savings, all the while preserving user-specified performance goals.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Lightning UQ Box: A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential tool for applying deep neural networks (DNNs) to real world tasks, as it attaches a degree of confidence to DNN outputs. However, despite its benefits, UQ is often left out of the standard DNN workflow due to the additional technical knowledge required to apply and evaluate existing UQ procedures. Hence there is a need for a comprehensive toolbox that allows the user to integrate UQ into their modelling workflow, without significant overhead. We introduce \texttt{Lightning UQ Box}: a unified interface for applying and evaluating various approaches to UQ. In this paper, we provide a theoretical and quantitative comparison of the wide range of state-of-the-art UQ methods implemented in our toolbox. We focus on two challenging vision tasks: (i) estimating tropical cyclone wind speeds from infrared satellite imagery and (ii) estimating the power output of solar panels from RGB images of the sky. By highlighting the differences between methods our results demonstrate the need for a broad and approachable experimental framework for UQ, that can be used for benchmarking UQ methods. The toolbox, example implementations, and further information are available at: https://github.com/lightning-uq-box/lightning-uq-box

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Crowd-Calibrator: Can Annotator Disagreement Inform Calibration in Subjective Tasks?

Subjective tasks in NLP have been mostly relegated to objective standards, where the gold label is decided by taking the majority vote. This obfuscates annotator disagreement and the inherent uncertainty of the label. We argue that subjectivity should factor into model decisions and play a direct role via calibration under a selective prediction setting. Specifically, instead of calibrating confidence purely from the model's perspective, we calibrate models for subjective tasks based on crowd worker agreement. Our method, Crowd-Calibrator, models the distance between the distribution of crowd worker labels and the model's own distribution over labels to inform whether the model should abstain from a decision. On two highly subjective tasks, hate speech detection and natural language inference, our experiments show Crowd-Calibrator either outperforms or achieves competitive performance with existing selective prediction baselines. Our findings highlight the value of bringing human decision-making into model predictions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Prediction

Quantifying a model's predictive uncertainty is essential for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. We consider quantifying such uncertainty for multi-object detection. In particular, we leverage conformal prediction to obtain uncertainty intervals with guaranteed coverage for object bounding boxes. One challenge in doing so is that bounding box predictions are conditioned on the object's class label. Thus, we develop a novel two-step conformal approach that propagates uncertainty in predicted class labels into the uncertainty intervals of bounding boxes. This broadens the validity of our conformal coverage guarantees to include incorrectly classified objects, thus offering more actionable safety assurances. Moreover, we investigate novel ensemble and quantile regression formulations to ensure the bounding box intervals are adaptive to object size, leading to a more balanced coverage. Validating our two-step approach on real-world datasets for 2D bounding box localization, we find that desired coverage levels are satisfied with practically tight predictive uncertainty intervals.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Active Learning for Multilingual Fingerspelling Corpora

We apply active learning to help with data scarcity problems in sign languages. In particular, we perform a novel analysis of the effect of pre-training. Since many sign languages are linguistic descendants of French sign language, they share hand configurations, which pre-training can hopefully exploit. We test this hypothesis on American, Chinese, German, and Irish fingerspelling corpora. We do observe a benefit from pre-training, but this may be due to visual rather than linguistic similarities

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Early-Exit Neural Networks with Nested Prediction Sets

Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) enable adaptive and efficient inference by providing predictions at multiple stages during the forward pass. In safety-critical applications, these predictions are meaningful only when accompanied by reliable uncertainty estimates. A popular method for quantifying the uncertainty of predictive models is the use of prediction sets. However, we demonstrate that standard techniques such as conformal prediction and Bayesian credible sets are not suitable for EENNs. They tend to generate non-nested sets across exits, meaning that labels deemed improbable at one exit may reappear in the prediction set of a subsequent exit. To address this issue, we investigate anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs), an extension of traditional confidence intervals tailored for data-streaming scenarios. These sequences are inherently nested and thus well-suited for an EENN's sequential predictions. We explore the theoretical and practical challenges of using AVCSs in EENNs and show that they indeed yield nested sets across exits. Thus our work presents a promising approach towards fast, yet still safe, predictive modeling

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning to Defer to a Population: A Meta-Learning Approach

The learning to defer (L2D) framework allows autonomous systems to be safe and robust by allocating difficult decisions to a human expert. All existing work on L2D assumes that each expert is well-identified, and if any expert were to change, the system should be re-trained. In this work, we alleviate this constraint, formulating an L2D system that can cope with never-before-seen experts at test-time. We accomplish this by using meta-learning, considering both optimization- and model-based variants. Given a small context set to characterize the currently available expert, our framework can quickly adapt its deferral policy. For the model-based approach, we employ an attention mechanism that is able to look for points in the context set that are similar to a given test point, leading to an even more precise assessment of the expert's abilities. In the experiments, we validate our methods on image recognition, traffic sign detection, and skin lesion diagnosis benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty Aware Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Estimation from Satellite Data

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to earth observation (EO) data and opened new research avenues. Despite the theoretical and practical advances of these techniques, DNNs are still considered black box tools and by default are designed to give point predictions. However, the majority of EO applications demand reliable uncertainty estimates that can support practitioners in critical decision making tasks. This work provides a theoretical and quantitative comparison of existing uncertainty quantification methods for DNNs applied to the task of wind speed estimation in satellite imagery of tropical cyclones. We provide a detailed evaluation of predictive uncertainty estimates from state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DNNs. We find that predictive uncertainties can be utilized to further improve accuracy and analyze the predictive uncertainties of different methods across storm categories.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Beyond Top-Class Agreement: Using Divergences to Forecast Performance under Distribution Shift

Knowing if a model will generalize to data 'in the wild' is crucial for safe deployment. To this end, we study model disagreement notions that consider the full predictive distribution - specifically disagreement based on Hellinger distance, Jensen-Shannon and Kullback-Leibler divergence. We find that divergence-based scores provide better test error estimates and detection rates on out-of-distribution data compared to their top-1 counterparts. Experiments involve standard vision and foundation models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

One Strike, You're Out: Detecting Markush Structures in Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio Images

Modern research increasingly relies on automated methods to assist researchers. An example of this is Optical Chemical Structure Recognition (OCSR), which aids chemists in retrieving information about chemicals from large amounts of documents. Markush structures are chemical structures that cannot be parsed correctly by OCSR and cause errors. The focus of this research was to propose and test a novel method for classifying Markush structures. Within this method, a comparison was made between fixed-feature extraction and end-to-end learning (CNN). The end-to-end method performed significantly better than the fixed-feature method, achieving 0.928 (0.035 SD) Macro F1 compared to the fixed-feature method's 0.701 (0.052 SD). Because of the nature of the experiment, these figures are a lower bound and can be improved further. These results suggest that Markush structures can be filtered out effectively and accurately using the proposed method. When implemented into OCSR pipelines, this method can improve their performance and use to other researchers.

cs.CV↗