arXiv subjects

Eric Paic

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Paic.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

TDCOSMO. XXIII. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the doubly lensed quasar HE1104-1805

Time-delay cosmography leverages strongly lensed quasars to measure the Universe's current expansion rate, H_0, independently from other methods. While the latest TDCOSMO results relied mainly on quadruply lensed quasars, doubly lensed systems are far more common and offer precise time delays, potentially enlarging the usable sample by a factor of five and enabling percent-level constraints on H_0. We present the first TDCOSMO analysis of a doubly imaged source, HE1104-1805, including the measurement of the four necessary ingredients. First, by combining 17 years of data from the SMARTS, Euler and WFI telescopes, we measure a time delay of 176.3\pm 10.8 days. Second, using MUSE data, we extract stellar velocity dispersion measurements in three radial bins with up to 5% precision. Third, employing F160W HST imaging for lens modelling and marginalising over various modelling choices, we measure the Fermat potential difference between the images. Fourth, using wide-field imaging, we measure the convergence added by objects not included in the lens modelling. Hence, we measure the time delay distance and the angular diameter distance to the deflector, favouring a power-law mass model over a baryonic and dark matter composite model. The measurement was performed blindly and yielded H_0 = 64.2^{+5.8}_{-5.0} x $\lambda_{int} km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}, where \lambda_{int} is the internal mass sheet degeneracy parameter. This is in agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 milestone and its precision for \lambda_{int}=1 is comparable to that obtained with the best-observed quadruply lensed quasars (4-6%). This work is a stepping stone towards a precise measurement of H_0 using a large sample of doubly lensed quasars, supplementing the current sample. The next TDCOSMO milestone paper will include this system in its hierarchical analysis, constraining \lambda_{int} and H_0 jointly with multiple lenses.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from 8 strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for 5 lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RXJ1131-1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and 4 from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors' mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with $\Omega_{\rm m}$ constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter (CDM), we find $H_0=71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $\Lambda$CDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_{\phi}$CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

TDCOSMO XVII. New time delays in 22 lensed quasars from optical monitoring with the ESO-VST 2.6m and MPG 2.2m telescopes

We present new time delays, the main ingredient of time delay cosmography, for 22 lensed quasars resulting from high-cadence r-band monitoring on the 2.6 m ESO VLT Survey Telescope and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2.2 m telescope. Each lensed quasar was typically monitored for one to four seasons, often shared between the two telescopes to mitigate the interruptions forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample of targets consists of 19 quadruply and 3 doubly imaged quasars, which received a total of 1 918 hours of on-sky time split into 21 581 wide-field frames, each 320 seconds long. In a given field, the 5-{\sigma} depth of the combined exposures typically reaches the 27th magnitude, while that of single visits is 24.5 mag - similar to the expected depth of the upcoming Vera-Rubin LSST. The fluxes of the different lensed images of the targets were reliably de-blended, providing not only light curves with photometric precision down to the photon noise limit, but also high-resolution models of the targets whose features and astrometry were systematically confirmed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This was made possible thanks to a new photometric pipeline, lightcurver, and the forward modelling method STARRED. Finally, the time delays between pairs of curves and their uncertainties were estimated, taking into account the degeneracy due to microlensing, and for the first time the full covariance matrices of the delay pairs are provided. Of note, this survey, with 13 square degrees, has applications beyond that of time delays, such as the study of the structure function of the multiple high-redshift quasars present in the footprint at a new high in terms of both depth and frequency. The reduced images will be available through the European Southern Observatory Science Portal.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Predicting High-magnification Events in Microlensed Quasars in the Era of LSST using Recurrent Neural Networks

Upcoming widefield surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), will monitor thousands of strongly lensed quasars over a 10 yr period. Many of these monitored quasars will undergo high-magnification events (HMEs) through microlensing, as the accretion disk crosses a caustic, places of infinite magnification. Microlensing allows us to map the inner regions of the accretion disk as it crosses a caustic, even at large cosmological distances. The observational cadences of LSST are not ideal for probing the inner regions of the accretion disk, so there is a need to predict HMEs as early as possible, to trigger high-cadence multiband or spectroscopic follow-up observations. Here, we simulate a diverse and realistic sample of 10 yr quasar microlensing light curves to train a recurrent neural network to predict HMEs before they occur, by classifying the locations of the peaks at each time step. This is the first deep-learning approach for predicting HMEs. We give estimates of how well we expect to predict HME peaks during LSST and benchmark how our metrics change with different cadence strategies. With LSST-like observations, we can predict approximately 55% of HME peaks, corresponding to tens to hundreds per year and a false-positive rate of around 20% compared to the total number of HMEs. Our network can be continuously applied throughout the LSST survey, providing crucial alerts for optimizing follow-up resources.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Probing compact dark matter objects with microlensing in gravitationally lensed quasars

The microlensing signal in the light curves of gravitationally lensed quasars can shed light on the dark matter (DM) composition in their lensing galaxies. Here, we investigate a sample of six lensed quasars from the most recent and best COSMOGRAIL observations: HE~1104$-$1805, HE~0435$-$1223, RX~J1131$-$1231, WFI~2033$-$4723, PG~1115$+$080, and J1206$+$4332, yielding a total of eight microlensing light curves, when combining independent image pairs and typically spanning ten years. We explore the microlensing signals to determine whether the standard assumptions on the stellar populations are sufficient to account for the amplitudes of the measured signals. We use the most detailed lens models to date from the H0LiCOW/TDCOSMO collaboration to generate simulated microlensing light curves. Finally, we propose a methodology based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to verify whether the observed microlensing amplitudes in our data are compatible with the most standard scenario, whereby galaxies are composed of stars as compact bodies and smoothly distributed DM. Given our current sample, we show that the standard scenario cannot be rejected, in contrast with previous results by Hawkins (2020a), claiming that a population of stellar mass primordial black holes (PBHs) is necessary to explain the amplitude of the microlensing signals in lensed quasar light curves. We further estimate the number of microlensing light curves needed to distinguish between the standard scenario with stellar microlensing and a scenario that describes all the DM contained in galaxies in the form of compact objects such as PBHs, with a mean mass of $0.2M_{\odot}$. We find that about 900 microlensing curves from the Rubin Observatory will be sufficient to discriminate between the two extreme scenarios at a 95\% confidence level.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The impact of human expert visual inspection on the discovery of strong gravitational lenses

We investigate the ability of human 'expert' classifiers to identify strong gravitational lens candidates in Dark Energy Survey like imaging. We recruited a total of 55 people that completed more than 25$\%$ of the project. During the classification task, we present to the participants 1489 images. The sample contains a variety of data including lens simulations, real lenses, non-lens examples, and unlabeled data. We find that experts are extremely good at finding bright, well-resolved Einstein rings, whilst arcs with $g$-band signal-to-noise less than $\sim$25 or Einstein radii less than $\sim$1.2 times the seeing are rarely recovered. Very few non-lenses are scored highly. There is substantial variation in the performance of individual classifiers, but they do not appear to depend on the classifier's experience, confidence or academic position. These variations can be mitigated with a team of 6 or more independent classifiers. Our results give confidence that humans are a reliable pruning step for lens candidates, providing pure and quantifiably complete samples for follow-up studies.

astro-ph.GA↗