arXiv subjects

Eric Thrane

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Thrane.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Constraining the Gravitational-Wave Afterglow From a Binary Neutron Star Coalescence

Binary neutron star mergers are rich laboratories for physics, accessible with ground-based interferometric gravitational-wave detectors such as the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. If a neutron star remnant survives the merger, it can emit gravitational waves that might be detectable with the current or next generation detectors. The physics of the long-lived post-merger phase is not well understood and makes modelling difficult. In particular the phase of the gravitational-wave signal is not well modelled. In this paper, we explore methods for using long duration post-merger gravitational-wave signals to constrain the parameters and the properties of the remnant. We develop a phase-agnostic likelihood model that uses only the spectral content for parameter estimation and demonstrate the calculation of a Bayesian upper limit in the absence of a signal. With the millisecond magnetar model, we show that for an event like GW170817, the ellipticity of a long-lived remnant can be constrained to less than about 0.5 in the parameter space used.

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arXiv2019

Gravitational-wave inference in the catalog era: evolving priors and marginal events

As the number of gravitational-wave transient detections grows, the inclusion of marginally significant events in gravitational-wave catalogs will lead to increasing contamination from false positives. In this paper, we address the question of how to carry out population studies in light of the fact that some fraction of marginally significant gravitational-wave events are of terrestrial origin. We show that previously published estimates of $p_\text{astro}$, the probability that an event is of astrophysical origin, imply an effective noise likelihood, which can be used to take into account the uncertain origin of marginal events in population studies. We derive a formalism to carry out population studies with ambiguous gravitational-wave events. We demonstrate this formalism using events from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 1 (GWTC-1) as well as events from the Venumadhav et al. "IAS catalog." We derive posterior distributions for population parameters and discuss how they change when we take into account $p_\text{astro}$. We provide updated individual-event posterior distributions by including population information.

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arXiv2019

Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Astronomy in Australia: 2019 White Paper

The past four years have seen a scientific revolution through the birth of a new field: gravitational-wave astronomy. The first detection of gravitational waves---recognised by the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics---provided unprecedented tests of general relativity while unveiling a previously unknown class of massive black holes, thirty times more massive than the Sun. The subsequent detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe. The discovery enabled precision measurement of the speed of gravity while shedding light on the origin of heavy elements. At the time of writing, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and its European partner, Virgo, have published the detection of eleven gravitational-wave events. New, not-yet-published detections are announced on a nearly weekly basis. This fast-growing catalogue of gravitational-wave transients is expected to yield insights into a number of topics, from the equation of state of matter at supra-nuclear densities to the fate of massive stars. The science potential of 3G observatories is enormous, enabling measurements of gravitational waves from the edge of the Universe and precise determination of the neutron star equation of state. Australia is well-positioned to help develop the required technology. The Mid-term Review for the Decadal plan for Australian astronomy 2016-2025 should consider investment in a scoping study for an Australian Gravitational-Wave Pathfinder that develops and validates core technologies required for the global 3G detector network.

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arXiv2019

The mass distribution of Galactic double neutron stars

The conventional wisdom, dating back to 2012, is that the mass distribution of Galactic double neutron stars is well-fit by a Gaussian distribution with a mean of $1.33 M_\odot$ and a width of $0.09 M_\odot$. With the recent discovery of new Galactic double neutron stars and GW170817, the first neutron star merger event to be observed with gravitational waves, it is timely to revisit this model. In order to constrain the mass distribution of double neutron stars, we perform Bayesian inference using a sample of 17 Galactic double neutron stars effectively doubling the sample used in previous studies. We expand the space of models so that the recycled neutron star need not be drawn from the same distribution as the non-recycled companion. Moreover, we consider different functional forms including uniform, single-Gaussian, and two-Gaussian distributions. While there is insufficient data to draw firm conclusions, we find positive support (a Bayes factor of 9) for the hypothesis that recycled and non-recycled neutron stars have distinct mass distributions. The most probable model---preferred with a Bayes factor of 29 over the conventional model---is one in which the recycled neutron star mass is distributed according to a two-Gaussian distribution and the non-recycled neutron star mass is distributed uniformly. We show that precise component mass measurements of $\approx 20$ double neutron stars are required in order to determine with high confidence (a Bayes factor of 150) if recycled and non-recycled neutron stars come from a common distribution. Approximately $60$ are needed in order to establish the detailed shape of the distributions.

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arXiv2019

Thanks for the memory: measuring gravitational-wave memory in the first LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalog

Gravitational-wave memory, a strong-field effect of general relativity, manifests itself as a permanent displacement in spacetime. We develop a Bayesian framework to detect gravitational-wave memory with the Advanced LIGO/Virgo detector network. We apply this algorithm on the ten binary black hole mergers in LIGO/Virgo's first transient gravitational-wave catalog. We find no evidence of memory, which is consistent with expectations. In order to estimate when memory will be detected, we use the best current population estimates to construct a realistic sample of binary black hole observations for LIGO/Virgo at design sensitivity. We show that an ensemble of $\mathcal{O}(2000)$ binary black hole observations can be used to find definitive evidence for gravitational-wave memory. We conclude that memory is likely to be detected in the early A+/Virgo+ era.

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arXiv2019

Higher order gravitational-wave modes with likelihood reweighting

The gravitational waveform of a merging stellar-mass binary is described at leading order by a quadrupolar mode. However, the complete waveform includes higher-order modes, which encode valuable information not accessible from the leading-order mode alone. Despite this, the majority of astrophysical inferences so far obtained with observations of gravitational waves employ only the leading order mode because calculations with higher-order modes are often computationally challenging. We show how to efficiently incorporate higher-order modes into astrophysical inference calculations with a two step procedure. First, we carry out Bayesian parameter estimation using a computationally cheap leading-order-mode waveform, which provides an initial estimate of binary parameters. Second, we weight the initial estimate using higher-order mode waveforms in order to fold in the extra information from the full waveform. We use mock data to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. We apply the method to each binary black hole event in the first gravitational-wave transient catalog GWTC-1 to obtain posterior distributions and Bayesian evidence with higher-order modes. Performing Bayesian model selection on the events in GWTC-1, we find only a weak preference for waveforms with higher order modes. We discuss how this method can be generalized to a variety of other applications.

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arXiv2019

Ultra-relativistic astrophysics using multi-messenger observations of double neutron stars with LISA and the SKA

Recent work highlights that tens of Galactic double neutron stars are likely to be detectable in the millihertz band of the space-based gravitational-wave observatory, LISA. Kyutoku and Nishino point out that some of these binaries might be detectable as radio pulsars using the Square Kilometer Array (SKA). We point out that the joint LISA+SKA detection of a $f_\text{gw}\gtrsim$1 mHz binary, corresponding to a binary period of $\lesssim$400 s, would enable precision measurements of ultra-relativistic phenomena. We show that, given plausible assumptions, multi-messenger observations of ultra-relativistic binaries can be used to constrain the neutron star equation of state with remarkable fidelity. It may be possible to measure the mass-radius relation with a precision of $\approx$0.2% after 10 yr of observations with the SKA. Such a measurement would be roughly an order of magnitude more precise than possible with other proposed observations. We summarize some of the other remarkable science made possible with multi-messenger observations of millihertz binaries, and discuss the prospects for the detection of such objects.

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arXiv2019

Searching for Eccentricity: Signatures of Dynamical Formation in the First Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue of LIGO and Virgo

Binary black holes are thought to form primarily via two channels: isolated evolution and dynamical formation. The component masses, spins, and eccentricity of a binary black hole system provide clues to its formation history. We focus on eccentricity, which can be a signature of dynamical formation. Employing the spin-aligned eccentric waveform model SEOBNRE, we perform Bayesian inference to measure the eccentricity of binary black hole merger events in the first Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue of LIGO and Virgo. We find that all of these events are consistent with zero eccentricity. We set upper limits on eccentricity ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 with 90% confidence at a reference frequency of 10 Hz. These upper limits do not significantly constrain the fraction of LIGO-Virgo events formed dynamically in globular clusters, because only ~ 5% are expected to merge with measurable eccentricity. However, with the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalogue set to expand dramatically over the coming months, it may soon be possible to significantly constrain the fraction of mergers taking place in globular clusters using eccentricity measurements.

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arXiv2019

Gravitational wave detection without boot straps: a Bayesian approach

In order to separate astrophysical gravitational-wave signals from instrumental noise, which often contains transient non-Gaussian artifacts, astronomers have traditionally relied on bootstrap methods such as time slides. Bootstrap methods sample with replacement, comparing single-observatory data to construct a background distribution, which is used to assign a false-alarm probability to candidate signals. While bootstrap methods have played an important role establishing the first gravitational-wave detections, there are limitations. First, as the number of detections increases, it makes increasingly less sense to treat single-observatory data as bootstrap-estimated noise, when we know that the data are filled with astrophysical signals, some resolved, some unresolved. Second, it has been known for a decade that background estimation from time-slides eventually breaks down due to saturation effects, yielding incorrect estimates of significance. Third, the false alarm probability cannot be used to weight candidate significance, for example when performing population inference on a set of candidates. Given recent debate about marginally resolved gravitational-wave detection claims, the question of significance has practical consequences. We propose a Bayesian framework for calculating the odds that a signal is of astrophysical origin versus instrumental noise without bootstrap noise estimation. We show how the astrophysical odds can safely accommodate glitches. We argue that it is statistically optimal. We demonstrate the method with simulated noise and provide examples to build intuition about this new approach to significance.

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arXiv2019

Accelerated detection of the binary neutron star gravitational-wave background

Most gravitational-wave signals from binary neutron star coalescences are too weak to be individually resolved with current detectors. We demonstrate how to extract a population of sub-threshold binary neutron star signals using Bayesian parameter estimation. Assuming a merger rate of one signal every two hours, we find that this gravitational-wave background can be detected after approximately three months of observation with Advanced LIGO and Virgo at design sensitivity, versus several years using the standard cross-correlation algorithm. We show that the algorithm can distinguish different neutron star equations of state using roughly seven months of Advanced LIGO and Virgo design-sensitivity data. This is in contrast to the standard cross-correlation method, which cannot.

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arXiv2019

Parallelized Inference for Gravitational-Wave Astronomy

Bayesian inference is the workhorse of gravitational-wave astronomy, for example, determining the mass and spins of merging black holes, revealing the neutron star equation of state, and unveiling the population properties of compact binaries. The science enabled by these inferences comes with a computational cost that can limit the questions we are able to answer. This cost is expected to grow. As detectors improve, the detection rate will go up, allowing less time to analyze each event. Improvement in low-frequency sensitivity will yield longer signals, increasing the number of computations per event. The growing number of entries in the transient catalog will drive up the cost of population studies. While Bayesian inference calculations are not entirely parallelizable, key components are embarrassingly parallel: calculating the gravitational waveform and evaluating the likelihood function. Graphical processor units (GPUs) are adept at such parallel calculations. We report on progress porting gravitational-wave inference calculations to GPUs. Using a single code - which takes advantage of GPU architecture if it is available - we compare computation times using modern GPUs (NVIDIA P100) and CPUs (Intel Gold 6140). We demonstrate speed-ups of $\sim 50 \times$ for compact binary coalescence gravitational waveform generation and likelihood evaluation and more than $100\times$ for population inference within the lifetime of current detectors. Further improvement is likely with continued development. Our python-based code is publicly available and can be used without familiarity with the parallel computing platform, CUDA.

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arXiv2019

Cosmology and the Early Universe

This Astro-2020 White Paper deals with what we might learn from future gravitational wave observations about the early universe phase transitions and their energy scales, primordial black holes, Hubble parameter, dark matter and dark energy, modified theories of gravity and extra dimensions.

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arXiv2019

All-sky radiometer for narrowband gravitational waves using folded data

We demonstrate an all-sky search for persistent, narrowband gravitational waves using mock data. The search employs radiometry to sidereal-folded data in order to uncover persistent sources of gravitational waves with minimal assumptions about the signal model. The method complements continuous-wave searches, which are finely tuned to search for gravitational waves from rotating neutron stars while providing a means of detecting more exotic sources that might be missed by dedicated continuous-wave techniques. We apply the algorithm to simulated Gaussian noise at the level of LIGO design sensitivity. We project the strain amplitude sensitivity for the algorithm for a LIGO network in the first observing run to be $h_0 \approx 1.2 \times 10^{-24}$ ($1\%$ false alarm probability, $10\%$ false dismissal probability). We include treatment of instrumental lines and detector artifacts using time-shifted LIGO data from the first observing run.

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arXiv2019

Exploring the sensitivity of gravitational wave detectors to neutron star physics

The physics of neutron stars can be studied with gravitational waves emitted from coalescing binary systems. Tidal effects become significant during the last few orbits and can be visible in the gravitational-wave spectrum above 500 Hz. After the merger, the neutron star remnant oscillates at frequencies above 1 kHz and can collapse into a black hole. Gravitational-wave detectors with a sensitivity of ~10^{-24} strain/sqHz at 2-4 kHz can observe these oscillations from a source which is ~100 Mpc away. The current observatories, such as LIGO and Virgo, are limited by shot noise at high frequencies and have a sensitivity of > 2 * 10^{-23} strain/sqHz at 3 kHz. In this paper, we propose an optical configuration of gravitational-wave detectors which can be set up in present facilities using the current interferometer topology. This scheme has a potential to reach 7 * 10^{-25} strain/sqHz at 2.5 kHz without compromising the detector sensitivity to black hole binaries. We argue that the proposed instruments have a potential to detect similar amount of post-merger neutron star oscillations as the next generation detectors, such as Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We also optimise the arm length of the future detectors for neutron star physics and find that the optimal arm length is ~20 km. These instruments have the potential to observe neutron star post-merger oscillations at a rate of ~30 events per year with a signal-to-noise ratio of 5 or more.

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arXiv2018

Bilby: A user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy

Bayesian parameter estimation is fast becoming the language of gravitational-wave astronomy. It is the method by which gravitational-wave data is used to infer the sources' astrophysical properties. We introduce a user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy, Bilby. This python code provides expert-level parameter estimation infrastructure with straightforward syntax and tools that facilitate use by beginners. It allows users to perform accurate and reliable gravitational-wave parameter estimation on both real, freely-available data from LIGO/Virgo, and simulated data. We provide a suite of examples for the analysis of compact binary mergers and other types of signal model including supernovae and the remnants of binary neutron star mergers. These examples illustrate how to change the signal model, how to implement new likelihood functions, and how to add new detectors. Bilby has additional functionality to do population studies using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. We provide an example in which we infer the shape of the black hole mass distribution from an ensemble of observations of binary black hole mergers.

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arXiv2018

Measuring eccentricity in binary black hole inspirals with gravitational waves

When binary black holes form in the field, it is expected that their orbits typically circularize before coalescence. In galactic nuclei and globular clusters, binary black holes can form dynamically. Recent results suggest that $\approx5\%$ of mergers in globular clusters result from three-body interactions. These three-body interactions are expected to induce significant orbital eccentricity $\gtrsim 0.1$ when they enter the Advanced LIGO band at a gravitational-wave frequency of 10 Hz. Measurements of binary black hole eccentricity therefore provide a means for determining whether or not dynamic formation is the primary channel for producing binary black hole mergers. We present a framework for performing Bayesian parameter estimation on gravitational-wave observations of black hole inspirals. Using this framework, and employing the non-spinning, inspiral-only EccentricFD waveform approximant, we determine the minimum detectable eccentricity for an event with masses and distance similar to GW150914. At design sensitivity, we find that the current generation of advanced observatories will be sensitive to orbital eccentricities of $\gtrsim0.05$ at a gravitational-wave frequency of 10 Hz, demonstrating that existing detectors can use eccentricity to distinguish between circular field binaries and globular cluster triples. We compare this result to eccentricity distributions predicted to result from three black hole binary formation channels, showing that measurements of eccentricity could be used to infer the population properties of binary black holes.

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arXiv2018

The minimum and maximum gravitational-wave background from supermassive binary black holes

The gravitational-wave background from supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) has yet to be detected. This has led to speculations as to whether current pulsar timing array limits are in tension with theoretical predictions. In this paper, we use electromagnetic observations to constrain the SMBBH background from above and below. To derive the {\em maximum} amplitude of the background, we suppose that equal-mass SMBBH mergers fully account for the local black hole number density. This yields a maximum characteristic signal amplitude at a period of one year $A_{\rm{yr}}<2.4\times 10^{-15}$, which is comparable to the pulsar timing limits. To derive the {\em minimum} amplitude requires an electromagnetic observation of an SMBBH. While a number of candidates have been put forward, there are no universally-accepted electromagnetic detections in the nanohertz band. We show the candidate 3C 66B implies a lower limit, which is inconsistent with limits from pulsar timing, casting doubt on its binary nature. Alternatively, if the parameters of OJ 287 are known accurately, then $A_{\rm{yr}}> 6.1\times 10^{-17}$ at 95\% confidence level. If one of the current candidates can be established as a bona fide SMBBH, it will immediately imply an astrophysically interesting lower limit.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Gravitational-wave memory: waveforms and phenomenology

The non-linear gravitational-wave memory effect is a prediction of general relativity in which test masses are permanently displaced by gravitational radiation. We implement a method for calculating the expected memory waveform from an oscillatory gravitational-wave time series. We use this method to explore the phenomenology of gravitational-wave memory using a numerical relativity surrogate model. Previous methods of calculating the memory have considered only the dominant oscillatory ($\ell=2$, $m=|2|$) mode in the spherical harmonic decomposition or the post-Newtonian expansion. We explore the contribution of higher-order modes and reveal a richer phenomenology than is apparent with $\ell=|m|=2$ modes alone. We also consider the `memory of the memory' in which the memory is, itself, a source of memory, which leads to a small, $O\left(10^{-4}\right)$, correction to the memory waveform. The method is implemented in the python package {\tt\sc GWMemory}, which is made publicly available.

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