arXiv subjects

Eric Topol

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Topol.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cerebra: A Multidisciplinary AI Board for Multimodal Dementia Characterization and Risk Assessment

Modern clinical practice increasingly depends on reasoning over heterogeneous, evolving, and incomplete patient data. Although recent advances in multimodal foundation models have improved performance on various clinical tasks, most existing models remain static, opaque, and poorly aligned with real-world clinical workflows. We present Cerebra, an interactive multi-agent AI team that coordinates specialized agents for EHR, clinical notes, and medical imaging analysis. These outputs are synthesized into a clinician-facing dashboard that combines visual analytics with a conversational interface, enabling clinicians to interrogate predictions and contextualize risk at the point of care. Cerebra supports privacy-preserving deployment by operating on structured representations and remains robust when modalities are incomplete. We evaluated Cerebra using a massive multi-institutional dataset spanning 3 million patients from four independent healthcare systems. Cerebra consistently outperformed both state-of-the-art single-modality models and large multimodal language model baselines. In dementia risk prediction, it achieved AUROCs up to 0.80, compared with 0.74 for the strongest single-modality model and 0.68 for language model baselines. For dementia diagnosis, it achieved an AUROC of 0.86, and for survival prediction, a C-index of 0.81. In a reader study with experienced physicians, Cerebra significantly improved expert performance, increasing accuracy by 17.5 percentage points in prospective dementia risk estimation. These results demonstrate Cerebra's potential for interpretable, robust decision support in clinical care.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MedArena: Comparing LLMs for Medicine-in-the-Wild Clinician Preferences

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly central to clinician workflows, spanning clinical decision support, medical education, and patient communication. However, current evaluation methods for medical LLMs rely heavily on static, templated benchmarks that fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of real-world clinical practice, creating a dissonance between benchmark performance and clinical utility. To address these limitations, we present MedArena, an interactive evaluation platform that enables clinicians to directly test and compare leading LLMs using their own medical queries. Given a clinician-provided query, MedArena presents responses from two randomly selected models and asks the user to select the preferred response. Out of 1571 preferences collected across 12 LLMs up to November 1, 2025, Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and GPT-4o were the top three models by Bradley-Terry rating. Only one-third of clinician-submitted questions resembled factual recall tasks (e.g., MedQA), whereas the majority addressed topics such as treatment selection, clinical documentation, or patient communication, with ~20% involving multi-turn conversations. Additionally, clinicians cited depth and detail and clarity of presentation more often than raw factual accuracy when explaining their preferences, highlighting the importance of readability and clinical nuance. We also confirm that the model rankings remain stable even after controlling for style-related factors like response length and formatting. By grounding evaluation in real-world clinical questions and preferences, MedArena offers a scalable platform for measuring and improving the utility and efficacy of medical LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

The AI Productivity Index (APEX)

We present an extended version of the AI Productivity Index (APEX-v1-extended), a benchmark for assessing whether frontier models are capable of performing economically valuable tasks in four jobs: investment banking associate, management consultant, big law associate, and primary care physician (MD). This technical report details the extensions to APEX-v1, including an increase in the held-out evaluation set from n = 50 to n = 100 cases per job (n = 400 total) and updates to the grading methodology. We present a new leaderboard, where GPT5 (Thinking = High) remains the top performing model with a score of 67.0%. APEX-v1-extended shows that frontier models still have substantial limitations when performing typical professional tasks. To support further research, we are open sourcing n = 25 non-benchmark example cases per role (n = 100 total) along with our evaluation harness.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

The Illusion of Readiness in Health AI

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in a wide range of medical benchmarks. Yet underneath the seemingly promising results lie salient growth areas, especially in cutting-edge frontiers such as multimodal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce a series of adversarial stress tests to systematically assess the robustness of flagship models and medical benchmarks. Our study reveals prevalent brittleness in the presence of simple adversarial transformations: leading systems can guess the right answer even with key inputs removed, yet may get confused by the slightest prompt alterations, while fabricating convincing yet flawed reasoning traces. Using clinician-guided rubrics, we demonstrate that popular medical benchmarks vary widely in what they truly measure. Our study reveals significant competency gaps of frontier AI in attaining real-world readiness for health applications. If we want AI to earn trust in healthcare, we must demand more than leaderboard wins and must hold AI systems accountable to ensure robustness, sound reasoning, and alignment with real medical demands.

cs.AI↗