arXiv subjects

Erol Akçay

Publications and source records attributed to Erol Akçay.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Generative artificial intelligence reduces social welfare through model collapse

Generative artificial intelligence (genAI) is rapidly reshaping how knowledge and culture are produced and consumed. Yet generative models are vulnerable to model collapse: when trained on data generated by earlier versions of themselves, their outputs can lose diversity and accuracy. This creates a social dilemma, because delegating tasks to genAI can be individually beneficial in the short term even as widespread adoption degrades future model performance. Here we develop a parsimonious model of behavior in collaborative interactions in which individuals can either exert human effort, rely on genAI, or refrain from work altogether. The welfare consequences of genAI are organized by a simple two-dimensional taxonomy: the strength of the incentive to perform the task without AI, and the severity of model collapse. Within this framework, the introduction of genAI -- while initially beneficial at the individual level -- will reduce social welfare for the most important types of tasks. In addition, habit formation around genAI use can couple otherwise separate domains, so that adoption in low-stakes tasks spills over into high-value tasks and amplifies welfare losses. Together, these results identify a general pathway by which, in the absence of intervention, individually rational adoption of genAI will assuredly and profoundly reduce collective welfare.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Convergence of reputations under indirect reciprocity

Previous research has shown how indirect reciprocity can promote cooperation through evolutionary game theoretic models. Most work in this field assumes a separation of time-scales: individuals' reputations equilibrate at a fast time scale for given frequencies of strategies while the strategies change slowly according to the replicator dynamics. Much of the previous research has focused on the behaviour and stability of equilibria for the replicator dynamics. Here we focus on the underlying reputational dynamics that occur on a fast time scale. We describe reputational dynamics as systems of differential equations and conduct stability analyses on their equilibria. We prove that reputations converge to a unique equilibrium for each of the five standard norms whether assessments are public or private. These results confirm a crucial but previously unconfirmed assumption underlying the theory of indirect reciprocity for the most studied set of norms.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

The evolution of forecasting for decision making in dynamic environments

Global change is reshaping ecosystems and societies. Strategic choices that were best yesterday may be sub-optimal tomorrow; and environmental conditions that were once taken for granted may soon cease to exist. In this setting, how people choose behavioral strategies has important consequences for environmental dynamics. Economic and evolutionary theories make similar predictions for strategic behavior in a static environment, even though one approach assumes perfect rationality and the other assumes no cognition whatsoever; but predictions differ in a dynamic environment. Here we explore a middle ground between economic rationality and evolutionary myopia. Starting from a population of myopic agents, we study the emergence of a new type that forms environmental forecasts when making strategic decisions. We show that forecasting types can have an advantage in changing environments, even when the act of forecasting is costly. Forecasting types can invade but not overtake the population, producing a stable coexistence with myopic types. Moreover, forecasters provide a public good by reducing the amplitude of environmental oscillations and increasing mean payoff to forecasting and myopic types alike. We interpret our results for understanding the evolution of different modes of decision-making. And we discuss implications for the management of environmental systems of great societal importance.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

Pathways to social evolution: reciprocity, relatedness, and synergy

Many organisms live in populations structured by space and by class, exhibit plastic responses to their social partners, and are subject to non-additive ecological and fitness effects. Social evolution theory has long recognized that all of these factors can lead to different selection pressures but has only recently attempted to synthesize how these factors interact. Using models for both discrete and continuous phenotypes, we show that analyzing these factors in a consistent framework reveals that they interact with one another in ways previously overlooked. Specifically, behavioral responses (reciprocity), genetic relatedness, and synergy interact in non-trivial ways that cannot be easily captured by simple summary indices of assortment. We demonstrate the importance of these interactions by showing how they have been neglected in previous synthetic models of social behavior both within and between species. These interactions also affect the level of behavioral responses that can evolve in the long run; proximate biological mechanisms are evolutionarily stable when they generate enough responsiveness relative to the level of responsiveness that exactly balances the ecological costs and benefits. Given the richness of social behavior across taxa, these interactions should be a boon for empirical research as they are likely crucial for describing the complex relationship linking ecology, demography, and social behavior.

q-bio.PE↗