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Ethan Fan

Publications and source records attributed to Ethan Fan.

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Deep Learning Network-Temporal Models For Traffic Prediction

Accurate prediction of multivariate time series is essential for emerging network intelligent control, observability, and management functions. Existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time series. They prioritize improvements in average prediction accuracy, while overlooking heterogeneous dependency structures and performance variability across individual time series. Recent advances in large language models have introduced new directions for multivariate time series forecasting; however, their application in conjunction with explicit structural dependency modeling remains relatively underexplored, especially in networked environments. In this paper, we present a topology-aware learning framework for large-scale network traffic prediction that explicitly models both temporal dynamics and structural dependencies in multivariate network time series. We first investigate a graph attention model designed to capture topology-induced correlations among network traffic time series. We then evaluate a fine-tuned large language model-based representations for improved generalization across heterogeneous traffic patterns. To further address the diversity of cross-correlations in high-dimensional traffic data, we introduce a clustering-based preprocessing stage that groups traffic flows with similar dependency characteristics prior to model training, reducing input complexity and improving learning stability. Experiments on real backbone traffic data show consistent improvements over statistical and recurrent neural network baselines. In addition to average accuracy, we evaluate performance across individual time series and observe reduced variability in prediction quality.

cs.LG

Causal Inference in Biomedical Imaging via Functional Linear Structural Equation Models

Understanding the causal effects of organ-specific features from medical imaging on clinical outcomes is essential for biomedical research and patient care. We propose a novel Functional Linear Structural Equation Model (FLSEM) to capture the relationships among clinical outcomes, functional imaging exposures, and scalar covariates like genetics, sex, and age. Traditional methods struggle with the infinite-dimensional nature of exposures and complex covariates. Our FLSEM overcomes these challenges by establishing identifiable conditions using scalar instrumental variables. We develop the Functional Group Support Detection and Root Finding (FGS-DAR) algorithm for efficient variable selection, supported by rigorous theoretical guarantees, including selection consistency and accurate parameter estimation. We further propose a test statistic to test the nullity of the functional coefficient, establishing its null limit distribution. Our approach is validated through extensive simulations and applied to UK Biobank data, demonstrating robust performance in detecting causal relationships from medical imaging.

stat.ME