arXiv subjects

Ethan Lilie

Publications and source records attributed to Ethan Lilie.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1,024 Milky Way-mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a $Λ$CDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA Survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: A New Suite of 1,024 Simulations to Contextualize the Milky Way and Assess Physics Uncertainties

We introduce a new suite of 1,024 cosmological and hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-mass halos, run with Cold Dark Matter, as part of the DREAMS Project. Each simulation in the suite has a unique set of initial conditions and combination of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. The suite is designed to quantify theoretical uncertainties from halo-to-halo variance, as well as stellar and black hole feedback. We develop a novel weighting scheme that prioritizes regions of the input parameter space, yielding galaxies consistent with the observed present-day stellar mass--halo mass relation. The resulting galaxy population exhibits a wide diversity in structural properties that encompasses those of the actual Milky Way, providing a powerful statistical sample for galactic archaeology. To demonstrate the suite's scientific utility, we investigate the connection between a galaxy's merger history, focusing on Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus~(GSE) analogs, and its present-day properties. We find that galaxies with a GSE analog have lower star formation rates, more compact disks, and more spherical stellar halos. Crucially, significant halo-to-halo scatter remains, demonstrating that matching more than the most significant events in the Milky Way's past is necessary to recover its present-day properties. Our results highlight the necessity for large statistical samples to disentangle the stochastic nature of galaxy formation and robustly model the Milky Way's unique history.

astro-ph.GA↗