arXiv subjects

Euan Ashley

Publications and source records attributed to Euan Ashley.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Align-RAG: Alignment Is All You Need for TSFM In-Context Learning

Retrieval-augmented forecasting promises to adapt frozen Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) to new domains without fine-tuning, but recent methods typically rely on learned fusion modules, i.e., trained adapters that merge retrieved examples into the backbone's forecast, based on the assumption that frozen backbones cannot dynamically incorporate retrieved context on their own. We show this assumption is unnecessary. We introduce Align-RAG, a training-free method that applies a closed-form per-pair amplitude rescaling and integer-lag phase shift to retrieved past-future windows before they enter a frozen backbone's context. With no learned parameters, Align-RAG outperforms the state-of-the-art trained retrieval adapter on a frozen Chronos-Bolt on all seven datasets of the standard benchmark (avg -3.75% MSE), showing that the gains previously attributed to learned fusion are recoverable without any training. Align-RAG further improves zero-shot MSE on four additional frozen TSFMs with various architectures by 2.5% to 13.7% per backbone with no per-backbone tuning. To probe why alignment helps, we compare the frozen backbone's prediction shift under aligned demonstrations to the closed-form ridge prediction shift on the same pairs. We find that aligned demonstrations induce prediction shifts that track a closed-form ridge predictor on the same pairs, with a future-shuffle control ruling out a futures-averaging account. Together, these results indicate that frozen TSFMs already support dynamic in-context use of retrievals, and that closed-form alignment should be the default baseline for retrieval-augmented forecasting before any fusion module is trained. Code available at: https://github.com/masadi-99/align-rag

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

OpenMHC: Accelerating the Science of Wearable Foundation Models

Mobile and wearable devices offer an unprecedented opportunity for continuous, passive health monitoring and active health coaching. However, the largest wearable datasets are not publicly available for research, and leading wearable foundation models trained on such datasets are rarely open-weight or come with reproducible training code. To accelerate open science in wearable health, we release OpenMyHeartCounts (OpenMHC), the largest and most comprehensive broadly accessible wearable health dataset to date, released to qualified researchers, alongside open-source implementations of recent wearable foundation models. OpenMHC, derived from over a decade of data collected through the My Heart Counts study app, includes >60 million hours of wearable data across 19 sensor channels (e.g., step count, heart rate, sleep, workouts) and up to 169 linked variables, including health, lifestyle, mood, and behavior from 11,894 consenting participants. Furthermore, we introduce a unified, open benchmark that enables standardized comparison of wearable health models across three tracks: health and behavior downstream prediction, multivariate data imputation, and time-series forecasting. We benchmark classical methods alongside recent wearable and multivariate time series foundation models. By releasing data under broad research access, alongside open-source code and model weights, at this unprecedented scale, we aim to democratize wearable health AI research and enable the community to drive open progress in this domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MIRAGE: The Illusion of Visual Understanding

Multimodal AI systems have achieved remarkable performance across a broad range of real-world tasks, yet the mechanisms underlying visual-language reasoning remain surprisingly poorly understood. We report three findings that challenge prevailing assumptions about how these systems process and integrate visual information. First, Frontier models readily generate detailed image descriptions and elaborate reasoning traces, including pathology-biased clinical findings, for images never provided; we term this phenomenon mirage reasoning. Second, without any image input, models also attain strikingly high scores across general and medical multimodal benchmarks, bringing into question their utility and design. In the most extreme case, our model achieved the top rank on a standard chest X-ray question-answering benchmark without access to any images. Third, when models were explicitly instructed to guess answers without image access, rather than being implicitly prompted to assume images were present, performance declined markedly. Explicit guessing appears to engage a more conservative response regime, in contrast to the mirage regime in which models behave as though images have been provided. These findings expose fundamental vulnerabilities in how visual-language models reason and are evaluated, pointing to an urgent need for private benchmarks that eliminate textual cues enabling non-visual inference, particularly in medical contexts where miscalibrated AI carries the greatest consequence. We introduce B-Clean as a principled solution for fair, vision-grounded evaluation of multimodal AI systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Deterministic Hallucination Detection in Medical VQA via Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong potential for medical Visual Question Answering (VQA), yet they remain prone to hallucinations, defined as generating responses that contradict the input image, posing serious risks in clinical settings. Current hallucination detection methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE) and Vision-Amplified Semantic Entropy (VASE), require 10 to 20 stochastic generations per sample together with an external natural language inference model for semantic clustering, making them computationally expensive and difficult to deploy in practice. We observe that hallucinated responses exhibit a distinctive signature directly in the model's own log-probabilities: inconsistent token-level confidence and weak sensitivity to visual evidence. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain (CEBaG), a deterministic hallucination detection method that requires no stochastic sampling, no external models, and no task-specific hyperparameters. CEBaG combines two complementary signals: token-level predictive variance, which captures inconsistent confidence across response tokens, and evidence magnitude, which measures how much the image shifts per-token predictions relative to text-only inference. Evaluated across four medical MLLMs and three VQA benchmarks (16 experimental settings), CEBaG achieves the highest AUC in 13 of 16 settings and improves over VASE by 8 AUC points on average, while being fully deterministic and self-contained. https://github.com/masadi-99/CEBaG

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Towards Democratization of Subspeciality Medical Expertise

The scarcity of subspecialist medical expertise, particularly in rare, complex and life-threatening diseases, poses a significant challenge for healthcare delivery. This issue is particularly acute in cardiology where timely, accurate management determines outcomes. We explored the potential of AMIE (Articulate Medical Intelligence Explorer), a large language model (LLM)-based experimental AI system optimized for diagnostic dialogue, to potentially augment and support clinical decision-making in this challenging context. We curated a real-world dataset of 204 complex cases from a subspecialist cardiology practice, including results for electrocardiograms, echocardiograms, cardiac MRI, genetic tests, and cardiopulmonary stress tests. We developed a ten-domain evaluation rubric used by subspecialists to evaluate the quality of diagnosis and clinical management plans produced by general cardiologists or AMIE, the latter enhanced with web-search and self-critique capabilities. AMIE was rated superior to general cardiologists for 5 of the 10 domains (with preference ranging from 9% to 20%), and equivalent for the rest. Access to AMIE's response improved cardiologists' overall response quality in 63.7% of cases while lowering quality in just 3.4%. Cardiologists' responses with access to AMIE were superior to cardiologist responses without access to AMIE for all 10 domains. Qualitative examinations suggest AMIE and general cardiologist could complement each other, with AMIE thorough and sensitive, while general cardiologist concise and specific. Overall, our results suggest that specialized medical LLMs have the potential to augment general cardiologists' capabilities by bridging gaps in subspecialty expertise, though further research and validation are essential for wide clinical utility.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Almanac: Retrieval-Augmented Language Models for Clinical Medicine

Large-language models have recently demonstrated impressive zero-shot capabilities in a variety of natural language tasks such as summarization, dialogue generation, and question-answering. Despite many promising applications in clinical medicine, adoption of these models in real-world settings has been largely limited by their tendency to generate incorrect and sometimes even toxic statements. In this study, we develop Almanac, a large language model framework augmented with retrieval capabilities for medical guideline and treatment recommendations. Performance on a novel dataset of clinical scenarios (n = 130) evaluated by a panel of 5 board-certified and resident physicians demonstrates significant increases in factuality (mean of 18% at p-value < 0.05) across all specialties, with improvements in completeness and safety. Our results demonstrate the potential for large language models to be effective tools in the clinical decision-making process, while also emphasizing the importance of careful testing and deployment to mitigate their shortcomings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

DeepBeat: A multi-task deep learning approach to assess signal quality and arrhythmia detection in wearable devices

Wearable devices enable theoretically continuous, longitudinal monitoring of physiological measurements like step count, energy expenditure, and heart rate. Although the classification of abnormal cardiac rhythms such as atrial fibrillation from wearable devices has great potential, commercial algorithms remain proprietary and tend to focus on heart rate variability derived from green spectrum LED sensors placed on the wrist where noise remains an unsolved problem. Here, we develop a multi-task deep learning method to assess signal quality and arrhythmia event detection in wearable photoplethysmography devices for real-time detection of atrial fibrillation (AF). We train our algorithm on over one million simulated unlabeled physiological signals and fine-tune on a curated dataset of over 500K labeled signals from over 100 individuals from 3 different wearable devices. We demonstrate that in comparison with a traditional random forest-based approach (precision:0.24, recall:0.58, f1:0.34, auPRC:0.44) and a single task CNN (precision:0.59, recall:0.69, f1:0.64, auPRC:0.68) our architecture using unsupervised transfer learning through convolutional denoising autoencoders dramatically improves the performance of AF detection in participants at rest (pr:0.94, rc:0.98, f1:0.96, auPRC:0.96). In addition, we validate algorithm performance on a prospectively derived replication cohort of ambulatory subjects using data derived from an independently engineered device. We show that two-stage training can help address the unbalanced data problem common to biomedical applications where large well-annotated datasets are scarce. In conclusion, though a combination of simulation and transfer learning and we develop and apply a multitask architecture to the problem of AF detection from wearable wrist sensors demonstrating high levels of accuracy and a solution for the vexing challenge of mechanical noise.

eess.SP↗