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Eufrásio de A. Lima Neto

Publications and source records attributed to Eufrásio de A. Lima Neto.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Statistical Inference for Gaussian Kernel Robust Regression with the gkrreg Package

The Gaussian Kernel Robust Regression method (GKRReg) is a robust regression estimator that iteratively re-weights observations via a Gaussian kernel so that outliers and leverage points receive near-zero weight, with convergence of the estimation algorithm theoretically guaranteed. Despite a thorough study of estimation, the original work leaves open the problem of statistical inference for the regression coefficients. We fill this gap with three contributions. First, we formally establish that GKRReg belongs to the family of redescending M-estimators, providing the theoretical foundation for the inferential procedures that follow. Second, we derive a closed-form analytic sandwich variance estimator based on the theory of generalised M-estimators, corresponding to the HC0 class of heteroskedasticity-robust covariance matrices; we show that a finite-sample correction analogous to HC3 requires the weighted hat matrix of the converged IRWLS step, and identify this as a direction for future work. Third, we propose a pairs bootstrap that re-estimates the kernel width hyper-parameter gamma^2 on every replicate, capturing variability that the sandwich ignores. All procedures are implemented in the R package gkrreg, which also provides four estimators for gamma^2 and an automatic data-driven selection procedure, comprehensive diagnostic plots, and six real datasets from the robust regression literature. Applications to real data sets and comparison with traditional robust regression models highlight the potential of the GKRReg and the usability of the R package.

stat.ME↗

Identifying Early Help Referrals For Local Authorities With Machine Learning And Bias Analysis

Local authorities in England, such as Leicestershire County Council (LCC), provide Early Help services that can be offered at any point in a young person's life when they experience difficulties that cannot be supported by universal services alone, such as schools. This paper investigates the utilisation of machine learning (ML) to assist experts in identifying families that may need to be referred for Early Help assessment and support. LCC provided an anonymised dataset comprising 14360 records of young people under the age of 18. The dataset was pre-processed, machine learning models were build, and experiments were conducted to validate and test the performance of the models. Bias mitigation techniques were applied to improve the fairness of these models. During testing, while the models demonstrated the capability to identify young people requiring intervention or early help, they also produced a significant number of false positives, especially when constructed with imbalanced data, incorrectly identifying individuals who most likely did not need an Early Help referral. This paper empirically explores the suitability of data-driven ML models for identifying young people who may require Early Help services and discusses their appropriateness and limitations for this task.

cs.LG↗

On wavelets to select the parametric form of a regression model

Let Y be a response variable related with a set of explanatory variables and let f1, f2, ..., fk be a set of the parametric forms representing a set of candidate's model. Let f* be the true model among the set of k plausible models. We discuss in this paper the use of wavelet regression method as auxiliary for the choice of the "true" parametric form of a regression model, particularly, for the cases of nonlinear regression and generalized linear models. The use of a non-parametric method for the choice of the more appropriate parametric equation in regression problems would be interesting in practice due to the simplicity and because the probabilistic assumptions are not required. We evaluate the performance of the proposed wavelet procedure based on the true classification rate of the correct parametric form among a range of k candidate models, taking into account a wide ranges of scenarios and configurations as well as in real data set applications.

stat.ME↗