arXiv subjects

Eugenia Giraudy

Publications and source records attributed to Eugenia Giraudy.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Evacuation decisions in response to natural disasters: Insights from a large-scale social media survey

Evacuation in response to natural disasters is a complex process involving multiple decision-makers at the personal, household, community, and government levels. Consequently, many disparate factors influence who evacuates, when, and how to respond to a nearby disaster. In this paper, we leverage a novel method of data collection through social media to explore the evacuation response decisions of people in areas affected by the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires. We explore the validity of this data collection method for generating plausible estimates of evacuation and its ability to supplement cell phone location data using survey responses. Ultimately, we identify several key factors influencing household decisions on evacuation, specifically focusing on the phenomenon of household members evacuating or returning from evacuation at different times.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Measuring Global Migration Flows using Online Data

Existing estimates of human migration are limited in their scope, reliability, and timeliness, prompting the United Nations and the Global Compact on Migration to call for improved data collection. Using privacy protected records from three billion Facebook users, we estimate country-to-country migration flows at monthly granularity for 181 countries, accounting for selection into Facebook usage. Our estimates closely match high-quality measures of migration where available but can be produced nearly worldwide and with less delay than alternative methods. We estimate that 39.1 million people migrated internationally in 2022 (0.63% of the population of the countries in our sample). Migration flows significantly changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, decreasing by 64% before rebounding in 2022 to a pace 24% above the pre-crisis rate. We also find that migration from Ukraine increased tenfold in the wake of the Russian invasion. To support research and policy interventions, we will release these estimates publicly through the Humanitarian Data Exchange.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Migration patterns, friendship networks, and the diaspora: the potential of Facebook Social Connectedness Index to anticipate displacement patterns induced by Russia invasion of Ukraine in the European Union

The conflict in Ukraine is causing large-scale displacement in Europe and in the World. Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates, more than 7 million people fled the country as of 5 September 2022. In this context, it is extremely important to anticipate where these people are moving so that national to local authorities can better manage challenges related to their reception and integration. This work shows how innovative data from social media can provide useful insights on conflict-induced migration flows. In particular, we explore the potential of Facebook's Social Connectedness Index (SCI) for predicting migration flows in the context of the war in Ukraine, building on previous research findings that the presence of a diaspora network is one of the major migration drivers. To do so, we first evaluate the relationship between the Ukrainian diaspora and the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for Temporary Protection or similar national schemes as a proxy of migratory flows into the EU. We find a very strong correlation between the two (Pearson's r=0.94, p<0.0001), which indicates that the diaspora is attracting the people fleeing the war, who tend to reach their compatriots, in particular in the countries where the Ukrainian immigration was more a recent phenomenon. Second, we compare Facebook's SCI with available official data on diaspora at regional level in Europe. Our results suggest that the index, along with other readily available covariates, is a strong predictor of the Ukrainian diaspora at regional scale. Finally, we discuss the potential of Facebook's SCI to provide timely and spatially detailed information on human diaspora for those countries where this information might be missing or outdated, and to complement official statistics for fast policy response during conflicts.

physics.soc-ph↗