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Eurico Covas

Publications and source records attributed to Eurico Covas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Curating art exhibitions using machine learning

Here we present a series of artificial models - a total of four related models - based on machine learning techniques that attempt to learn from existing exhibitions which have been curated by human experts, in order to be able to do similar curatorship work. Out of our four artificial intelligence models, three achieve a reasonable ability at imitating these various curators responsible for all those exhibitions, with various degrees of precision and curatorial coherence. In particular, we can conclude two key insights: first, that there is sufficient information in these exhibitions to construct an artificial intelligence model that replicates past exhibitions with an accuracy well above random choices; and second, that using feature engineering and carefully designing the architecture of modest size models can make them almost as good as those using the so-called large language models such as GPT in a brute force approach.

cs.LG

Named entity recognition using GPT for identifying comparable companies

For both public and private firms, comparable companies' analysis is widely used as a method for company valuation. In particular, the method is of great value for valuation of private equity companies. The several approaches to the comparable companies' method usually rely on a qualitative approach to identifying similar peer companies, which tend to use established industry classification schemes and/or analyst intuition and knowledge. However, more quantitative methods have started being used in the literature and in the private equity industry, in particular, machine learning clustering, and natural language processing (NLP). For NLP methods, the process consists of extracting product entities from e.g., the company's website or company descriptions from some financial database system and then to perform similarity analysis. Here, using companies' descriptions/summaries from publicly available companies' Wikipedia websites, we show that using large language models (LLMs), such as GPT from OpenAI, has a much higher precision and success rate than using the standard named entity recognition (NER) methods which use manual annotation. We demonstrate quantitatively a higher precision rate, and show that, qualitatively, it can be used to create appropriate comparable companies peer groups which could then be used for equity valuation.

cs.CL

Transfer Learning in Spatial-Temporal Forecasting of the Solar Magnetic Field

Machine learning techniques have been widely used in attempts to forecast several solar datasets. Most of these approaches employ supervised machine learning algorithms which are, in general, very data hungry. This hampers the attempts to forecast some of these data series, particularly the ones that depend on (relatively) recent space observations. Here we focus on an attempt to forecast the solar surface longitudinally averaged radial magnetic field distribution using a form of spatial-temporal neural networks. Given that the recording of these spatial-temporal datasets only started in 1975 and are therefore quite short, the forecasts are predictably quite modest. However, given that there is a potential physical relationship between sunspots and the magnetic field, we employ another machine learning technique called transfer learning which has recently received considerable attention in the literature. Here, this approach consists in first training the source spatial-temporal neural network on the much longer time/latitude sunspot area dataset, which starts in 1874, then transferring the trained set of layers to a target network, and continue training the latter on the magnetic field dataset. The employment of transfer learning in the field of computer vision is known to obtain a generalized set of feature filters that can be reused for other datasets and tasks. Here we obtain a similar result, whereby we first train the network on the spatial-temporal sunspot area data, then the first few layers of the neural network are able to identify the two main features of the solar cycle, i.e. the amplitude variation and the migration to the equator, and therefore can be used to train on the magnetic field dataset and forecast better than a prediction based only on the historical magnetic field data.

astro-ph.SR

Neural Network Forecast of the Sunspot Butterfly Diagram

Using neural networks as a prediction method, we attempt to demonstrate that forecasting of the Sun's sunspot time series can be extended to the spatial-temporal case. We employ this machine learning methodology to forecast not only in time but also in space (in this case the latitude) on a spatial-temporal dataset representing the solar sunspot diagram extending to a total of 142 years. The analysis shows that this approach seems to be able to reconstruct the overall qualitative aspects of the spatial-temporal series, namely the overall shape and amplitude of the latitude and time pattern of sunspots. This is, as far as we are aware, the first time neural networks have been used to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram, and although the results are limited in the quantitative prediction aspects, it points the way to use the full spatial-temporal series as opposed to just the time series for machine learning approaches to forecasting. Further to that, we use the method to predict that the upcoming Cycle 25 maximum sunspot number will be around $R_{25}=57 \pm 17$. This implies a very weak cycle and that it will be the weakest cycle on record.

astro-ph.SR

Optimal Neural Network Feature Selection for Spatial-Temporal Forecasting

In this paper, we show empirical evidence on how to construct the optimal feature selection or input representation used by the input layer of a feedforward neural network for the propose of forecasting spatial-temporal signals. The approach is based on results from dynamical systems theory, namely the non-linear embedding theorems. We demonstrate it for a variety of spatial-temporal signals, with one spatial and one temporal dimensions, and show that the optimal input layer representation consists of a grid, with spatial/temporal lags determined by the minimum of the mutual information of the spatial/temporal signals and the number of points taken in space/time decided by the embedding dimension of the signal. We present evidence of this proposal by running a Monte Carlo simulation of several combinations of input layer feature designs and show that the one predicted by the non-linear embedding theorems seems to be optimal or close of optimal. In total we show evidence in four unrelated systems: a series of coupled Henon maps; a series of couple Ordinary Differential Equations (Lorenz-96) phenomenologically modelling atmospheric dynamics; the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, a partial differential equation used in studies of instabilities in laminar flame fronts and finally real physical data from sunspot areas in the Sun (in latitude and time) from 1874 to 2015.

cs.NE

Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram

We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods.

astro-ph.SR

The influence of density stratification and multiple nonlinearities on solar torsional oscillations

Analyses of recent helioseismic data have produced ample evidence for substantial dynamical variation of the differential rotation within the solar convection zone. Given the inevitable difficulties in resolving the precise nature of variations at deeper layers, much effort has recently gone into determining theoretically the expected modes of behaviour, using nonlinear dynamo models. Two important limitations of these models are that they have so far included only one form of nonlinearity, and as yet they have not taken into account the density stratification in the solar convection zone. Here we address both of these issues by studying the effects of including density stratification, as well as including an alpha--quenching nonlinearity in addition to the previously studied effects of the Lorentz force on the differential rotation. We find that observationally important features found in the earlier uniform density models remain qualitatively unchanged, although there are quantitative differences. This is important as it provides more realistic theoretical predictions to be compared with and guide observations, especially in the deeper regions where the uncertainties in the inversions are larger. However the presence of an effective alpha-quenching nonlinearity significantly reduces the amplitudes of the oscillations.

astro-ph

Effects of boundary conditions on the dynamics of the solar convection zone

Recent analyses of the helioseismic data have produced evidence for a variety of interesting dynamical behaviour associated with torsional oscillations. What is not so far clear is whether these oscillations extend all the way to the bottom of the convection zone and, if so, whether the oscillatory behaviour at the top and the bottom of the convection zone is different. Attempts have been made to understand such modes of behaviour within the framework of nonlinear dynamo models which include the nonlinear action of the Lorentz force of the dynamo generated magnetic field on the solar angular velocity. One aspect of these models that remains uncertain is the nature of the boundary conditions on the magnetic field. Here by employing a range of physically plausible boundary conditions, we show that for near-critical and moderately supercritical dynamo regimes, the oscillations extend all the way down to the bottom of the convection zone. Thus, such penetration is an extremely robust feature of the models considered. We also find parameter ranges for which the supercritical models show spatiotemporal fragmentation for a range of choices of boundary conditions. Given their observational importance, we also make a comparative study of the amplitude of torsional oscillations as a function of the boundary conditions.

astro-ph

Crisis-induced intermittency due to attractor-widening in a buoyancy-driven solar dynamo

In a recent paper [M. A. J. H. Ossendrijver, A&A {\bf 359}, 364 (2000)] numerical simulations of a 2D mean--field model where shown to produce grand minima, typical of the long-term behavior of solar magnetic activity. The model consisted of dynamo that features an $α$ effect based on the buoyancy instability of magnetic fluxtubes, which gives rise to the switching back and forth from grand minima to ``regular'' solar behavior. In this Letter, we report evidence from a time-series analysis of the model for the presence of crisis--induced intermittency due to attractor--widening. We support this finding by showing that the average duration of the minima, $<τ>$, follows the theoretically predicted scaling $<τ> \sim (C_{δα}-C_{δα}^*)^{-γ}$, where $C_{δα}$ is the bifurcation parameter of interest, together with other statistical evidence. As far as we are aware, this is the first time concrete and detailed evidence has been produced for the occurrence of this type of crisis--induced intermittency -- due to attractor widening -- for such dynamo models.

nlin.CD

Aspects of the dynamics underlying solar and stellar dynamo models

Observations of the Sun and solar-type stars continue to reveal phenomena whose understanding is very likely to require a nonlinear framework. Here we shall concentrate on two such phenomena, namely the grand minima type behaviour observed in the Sun and solar-type stars and the recent dynamical variations of the differential rotation in the solar convection zone, deduced from the helioseismic observations, and discuss how their explanations have recently motivated the development/employment of novel ideas from nonlinear dynamics.

astro-ph

Spatiotemporal fragmentation and the uncertainties in the solar rotation law

Analyses of recent helioseismic data indicate that the dynamical regimes at the base of the convection zone can be different from those observed at the top, having either significantly shorter periods or non--periodic behaviour. Recently spatiotemporal fragmentation/bifurcation has been proposed as a dynamical mechanism to account for the multi-mode behaviour that is possibly observed in the solar convection zone, without requiring separate physical mechanisms with different time scales at different depths. Here we study the robustness of this mechanism with respect to changes to the zero order rotation profile, motivated by the uncertainties of and differences between the various reductions of the helioseimic data. We find that spatiotemporal fragmentation is a common feature of the reductions investigated

astro-ph

In--out intermittency in PDE and ODE models

We find concrete evidence for a recently discovered form of intermittency, referred to as in--out intermittency, in both PDE and ODE models of mean field dynamos. This type of intermittency (introduced in Ashwin et al 1999) occurs in systems with invariant submanifolds and, as opposed to on--off intermittency which can also occur in skew product systems, it requires an absence of skew product structure. By this we mean that the dynamics on the attractor intermittent to the invariant manifold cannot be expressed simply as the dynamics on the invariant subspace forcing the transverse dynamics; the transverse dynamics will alter that tangential to the invariant subspace when one is far enough away from the invariant manifold. Since general systems with invariant submanifolds are not likely to have skew product structure, this type of behaviour may be of physical relevance in a variety of dynamical settings. The models employed here to demonstrate in--out intermittency are axisymmetric mean--field dynamo models which are often used to study the observed large scale magnetic variability in the Sun and solar-type stars. The occurrence of this type of intermittency in such models may be of interest in understanding some aspects of such variabilities.

nlin.CD

The influence of noise on scalings for in-out intermittency

We study the effects of noise on a recently discovered form of intermittency, referred to as in-out intermittency. This type of intermittency, which reduces to on-off in systems with a skew product structure, has been found in the dynamics of maps, ODE and PDE simulations that have symmetries. It shows itself in the form of trajectories that spend a long time near a symmetric state interspersed with short bursts away from symmetry. In contrast to on-off intermittency, there are clearly distinct mechanisms of approach towards and away from the symmetric state, and this needs to be taken into account in order to properly model the long time statistics. We do this by using a diffusion-type equation with delay integral boundary condition. This model is validated by considering the statistics of a two-dimensional map with and without the addition of noise.

nlin.CD

Dynamical variations of the differential rotation in the solar convection zone

Recent analyses of helioseismological observations seem to suggest the presence of two new phenomena connected with the dynamics of the solar convective zone. Firstly, there are present torsional oscillations with periods of about 11 years, which penetrate significantly into the solar convection zone and secondly, oscillatory regimes exist near the base of the convection which are markedly different from those observed near the top, having either significantly reduced periods or being non-periodic. Recently spatiotemporal fragmentation/bifurcation has been proposed as a possible dynamical mechanism to account for such observed multi-mode behaviours in different parts of the solar convection zone. Evidence for this scenario was produced in the context of an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model operating in a spherical shell, with a semi-open outer boundary condition and a zero order angular velocity obtained by the inversion of the MDI data, in which the only nonlinearity was the action of the Lorentz force of the dynamo generated magnetic field on the solar angular velocity. Here we make a detailed study of the robustness of this model with respect to plausible changes to its main ingredients, including changes to the alpha and eta profiles as well as the inclusion of a nonlinear alpha quenching. We find that spatiotemporal fragmentation is present in this model for different choices of the rotation data and as the details of the model are varied. Taken together, these results give strong support to the idea that spatiotemporal fragmentation is likely to occur in general dynamo settings.

astro-ph

Spatiotemporal fragmentation as a mechanism for different dynamical modes of behaviour in the solar convection zone

Recent analyses of the helioseismic observations indicate that the previously observed surface torsional oscillations with periods of about 11 years extend significantly downwards into the solar convective zone. Furthermore, there are indications that the dynamical regimes at the base of the convection zone are different from those observed at the top, having either significantly shorter periods or non-periodic behaviour. We propose that this behaviour can be explained by the occurrence of {\it spatiotemporal fragmentation}, a crucial feature of which is that such behaviour can be explained solely through nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, without requiring separate mechanisms with different time scales at different depths. We find evidence for this mechanism in the context of a two dimensional axisymmetric mean field dynamo model operating in a spherical shell, with a semi-open outer boundary condition, in which the only nonlinearity is the action of the azimuthal component of the Lorentz force of the dynamo generated magnetic field on the solar angular velocity.

astro-ph

Torsional oscillations in the solar convection zone

Recent analysis of the helioseismic observations indicate that the previously observed surface torsional oscillations extend significantly downwards into the solar convection zone. In an attempt to understand these oscillations, we study the nonlinear coupling between the magnetic field and the solar differential rotation in the context of a mean field dynamo model, in which the nonlinearity is due to the action of the azimuthal component of the Lorentz force of the dynamo generated magnetic field on the solar angular velocity. The underlying zero order angular velocity is chosen to be consistent with the most recent helioseismic data. The model produces butterfly diagrams which are in qualitative agreement with the observations. It displays torsional oscillations that penetrate into the convection zone, and which with time migrate towards the equator. The period of these oscillations is found to be half that of the period of the global magnetic fields. This is compatible with the observed period of the surface torsional oscillations. Inside the convection zone, this is a testable prediction that is not ruled out by the observations so far available.

astro-ph

Absence of supersensitivity to small input signals in generalized on--off systems

It has recently been shown that nonlinear skew product dynamical systems with invariant subspaces which are capable of displaying on-off intermittency can show supersensitivity to small input signals. Here we show that this supersensitivity is absent for more general dynamical systems with non-skew product structure, capable of displaying a generalized form of on-off intermittency, and is therefore in this sense fragile. This absence of supersensitivity is of importance in view of the fact that dynamical systems are generically expected to be of non-skew product nature.

nlin.CD

Multiple forms of intermittency in PDE dynamo models

We find concrete evidence for the presence of crisis-induced and Pomeau-Manneville Type-I intermittencies in an axisymmetric PDE mean-field dynamo model. These findings are of potential importance for two different reasons. Firstly, as far as we are aware, this is the first time detailed evidence has been produced for the occurrence of these types of intermittency for such deterministic PDE models. And secondly, despite the rather idealised nature of these models, the concrete evidence for the occurrence of more than one type of intermittency in such models makes it in principle possible that different types of intermittency may occur in different solar-type stars or even in the same star over different epochs. In this way a multiple intermittency framework may turn out to be of importance in understanding the mechanisms responsible for grand-minima type behaviour in the Sun and solar-type stars and in particular in the interpretation of the corresponding observational and proxy evidence.

astro-ph