Dwarf Galaxy Number Counts within 25 Mpc: Predictions from Local Group Analogues in TNG50
The modern generation of wide-field galaxy surveys, such as LSST, Euclid and Roman, will enable studies of dwarf galaxies $(10^6 \leq M_\ast / M_\odot \leq 10^9)$ beyond the Local Group (LG) in unprecedented detail. Improved theoretical understanding of this population is necessary to guide these observations, since predictions in this regime are generally limited to specific environments like the LG. We present predictions for the population of dwarf galaxies from the TNG50 run of the IllustrisTNG suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, focusing on the environments within $1 < D / \mathrm{Mpc} < 25$ of LG analogues at $z = 0$. In the simulated sample, there are $\sim 1,000$ and $\sim 12,000$ dwarf galaxies within $10$ and $25$ Mpc, respectively. We compare our results with the 50 Mpc Galaxy Catalog and estimate that current observations are highly incomplete at low masses: for $10^6 \leq M_\ast / M_\odot \leq 10^7$ $(-13 \lesssim M_r \lesssim -10)$, we find completeness fractions of $\sim 23 \%$ within $10$ Mpc and $\sim 4 \%$ within $25$ Mpc. The simulated galaxies below the completeness limits of the observations exist in a range of environments, with notable populations of field dwarfs at all distances and satellites around centrals with masses $10^8 \lesssim M_\ast / M_\odot \lesssim 10^{11}$ within $10-25$ Mpc. We find that there are $\sim 8$ times more quiescent dwarf galaxies in the TNG50 sample than are currently cataloged. Our results suggest that upcoming observations should uncover a substantial population of dwarf galaxies, and that $\gtrsim 15 \%$ of these will be red, currently quenched galaxies in the field.