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Evangelia Samara

Publications and source records attributed to Evangelia Samara.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

CORONA-Fields: Leveraging Foundation Models for Classification of Solar Wind Phenomena

Space weather at Earth, driven by the solar activity, poses growing risks to satellites around our planet as well as to critical ground-based technological infrastructure. Major space weather contributors are the solar wind and coronal mass ejections whose variable density, speed, temperature, and magnetic field make the automated classification of those structures challenging. In this work, we adapt a foundation model for solar physics, originally trained on Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery, to create embeddings suitable for solar wind structure analysis. These embeddings are concatenated with the spacecraft position and solar magnetic connectivity encoded using Fourier features which generates a neural field-based model. The full deep learning architecture is fine-tuned bridging the gap between remote sensing and in situ observations. Labels are derived from Parker Solar Probe measurements, forming a downstream classification task that maps plasma properties to solar wind structures. Although overall classification performance is modest, likely due to coarse labeling, class imbalance, and limited transferability of the pretrained model, this study demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging foundation model embeddings for in situ solar wind tasks. As a first proof-of-concept, it lays the groundwork for future improvements toward more reliable space weather predictions. The code and configuration files used in this study are publicly available to support reproducibility.

cs.CV

Uncovering Solar Wind Phenomena with iSAX, HDBSCAN, Human-in-the-loop and PSP Observations

The solar wind is a dynamic plasma outflow that shapes heliospheric conditions and drives space weather. Identifying its large-scale phenomena is crucial, yet the increasing volume of high-cadence Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations poses challenges for scalable, interpretable analysis. We present a pipeline combining symbolic compression, density-based clustering, and human-in-the-loop validation. Applied to 2018-2024 PSP data, it efficiently processes over 150 GB of magnetic and plasma measurements, recovering known structures, detecting uncatalogued CMEs and transient events, and demonstrating robustness across multiple time scales. A key outcome is the systematic use of the magnetic deflection angle ($θ_B$) as a unifying metric across solar wind phenomena. This framework provides a scalable, interpretable, expert-validated approach to solar wind analysis, producing expanded event catalogs and supporting improved space weather forecasting. The code and configuration files used in this study are publicly available to support reproducibility.

astro-ph.SR

Scalable Machine Learning Analysis of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Data

We present a scalable machine learning framework for analyzing Parker Solar Probe (PSP) solar wind data using distributed processing and the quantum-inspired Kernel Density Matrices (KDM) method. The PSP dataset (2018--2024) exceeds 150 GB, challenging conventional analysis approaches. Our framework leverages Dask for large-scale statistical computations and KDM to estimate univariate and bivariate distributions of key solar wind parameters, including solar wind speed, proton density, and proton thermal speed, as well as anomaly thresholds for each parameter. We reveal characteristic trends in the inner heliosphere, including increasing solar wind speed with distance from the Sun, decreasing proton density, and the inverse relationship between speed and density. Solar wind structures play a critical role in enhancing and mediating extreme space weather phenomena and can trigger geomagnetic storms; our analyses provide quantitative insights into these processes. This approach offers a tractable, interpretable, and distributed methodology for exploring complex physical datasets and facilitates reproducible analysis of large-scale in situ measurements. Processed data products and analysis tools are made publicly available to advance future studies of solar wind dynamics and space weather forecasting. The code and configuration files used in this study are publicly available to support reproducibility.

cs.LG

CIPHER: Scalable Time Series Analysis for Physical Sciences with Application to Solar Wind Phenomena

Labeling or classifying time series is a persistent challenge in the physical sciences, where expert annotations are scarce, costly, and often inconsistent. Yet robust labeling is essential to enable machine learning models for understanding, prediction, and forecasting. We present the \textit{Clustering and Indexation Pipeline with Human Evaluation for Recognition} (CIPHER), a framework designed to accelerate large-scale labeling of complex time series in physics. CIPHER integrates \textit{indexable Symbolic Aggregate approXimation} (iSAX) for interpretable compression and indexing, density-based clustering (HDBSCAN) to group recurring phenomena, and a human-in-the-loop step for efficient expert validation. Representative samples are labeled by domain scientists, and these annotations are propagated across clusters to yield systematic, scalable classifications. We evaluate CIPHER on the task of classifying solar wind phenomena in OMNI data, a central challenge in space weather research, showing that the framework recovers meaningful phenomena such as coronal mass ejections and stream interaction regions. Beyond this case study, CIPHER highlights a general strategy for combining symbolic representations, unsupervised learning, and expert knowledge to address label scarcity in time series across the physical sciences. The code and configuration files used in this study are publicly available to support reproducibility.

cs.LG

Why do solar wind models get it wrong: understanding the capabilities of time-dependent solar wind simulations

We explore the capabilities of time-dependent (TD) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind simulations with the coupled WSA model of the solar corona and GAMERA model of the inner heliosphere. We compare TD with steady state (SS) simulations and with in situ data from multiple spacecraft (Earth, STEREO-A, PSP). We show that TD predictions, although better than SS predictions, substantially mispredict the solar wind at different heliospheric locations. We identified three reasons for that: (1) the uncalibrated WSA velocity formula used to generate solar wind velocities at the inner boundary of a heliospheric domain, (2) the extraction of the WSA boundary conditions for input into MHD models very high in the corona, and (3) the abrupt and partial emergence of active regions from the solar east limb. Evaluation of one year of TD predictions at Earth and STEREO-A locations shows that by tuning accordingly the WSA relationship when used with MHD models, and by extracting the WSA boundary conditions lower in the corona (at 5 Rs instead of 21.5 Rs), can lead to improved predictions. However, the abrupt emergence of active regions from the east limb of the Sun which can highly disrupt the magnetic field topology in the corona, is a difficult task to deal with since complete knowledge of the conditions on the solar far side is not currently available. Solar Orbiter Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI) data can help mitigate this effect, however, unless we get a 4pi view of the Sun we will be unable to completely address it.

astro-ph.SR

Calibrating the WSA model in EUHFORIA based on PSP observations

We employ Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations during the latest solar minimum period (years 2018 -2021) to calibrate the version of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model used in the European space weather forecasting tool EUHFORIA. WSA provides a set of boundary conditions at 0.1 au necessary to initiate the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, namely, the domain extending beyond the solar Alfvenic point. To calibrate WSA, we observationally constrain four constants in the WSA semi-empirical formula based on PSP observations. We show how the updated (after the calibration) WSA boundary conditions at 0.1 au are compared to PSP observations at similar distances, and we further propagate these conditions in the heliosphere according to EUHFORIAs magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) approach. We assess the predictions at Earth based on the Dynamic Time Warping technique. Our findings suggest that, for the period of interest, the WSA configurations which resembled optimally the PSP observations close to the Sun, were different than the ones needed to provide better predictions at Earth. One reason for this discrepancy can be attributed to the scarcity of fast solar wind velocities recorded by PSP. The calibration of the model was performed based on unexpectedly slow velocities that did not allow us to achieve generally and globally improved solar wind predictions, compared to older studies. Other reasons can be attributed to missing physical processes from the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA but also the fact that the currently employed WSA relationship, as coupled to the heliospheric MHD domain, may need a global reformulation beyond that of just updating the four constant factors that were taken into account in this study.

astro-ph.SR

Employing the coupled EUHFORIA-OpenGGCM model to predict CME geoeffectiveness

EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics-based data-driven solar wind and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geoeffectiveness of the solar transients in terms of the geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the eauroral indices that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere, to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geoeffective CME events driven with the spheromak flux-rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1 to 2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1 to 2 hours before the actual impact.

physics.space-ph

Coronal Models and Detection of Open Magnetic Field

A plethora of coronal models, from empirical to more complex magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ones, are being used for reconstructing the coronal magnetic field topology and estimating the open magnetic flux. However, no individual solution fully agrees with coronal hole observations and in situ measurements of open flux at 1~AU, as there is a strong deficit between model and observations contributing to the known problem of the missing open flux. In this paper we investigate the possible origin of the discrepancy between modeled and observed magnetic field topology by assessing the effect on the simulation output by the choice of the input boundary conditions and the simulation set up, including the choice of numerical schemes and the parameter initialization. In the frame of this work, we considered four potential field source surface based models and one fully MHD model, different types of global magnetic field maps and model initiation parameters. After assessing the model outputs using a variety of metrics, we conclude that they are highly comparable regardless of the differences set at initiation. When comparing all models to coronal hole boundaries extracted by extreme ultraviolet (EUV) filtergrams we find that they do not compare well. This miss-match between observed and modeled regions of open field is a candidate contributing to the open flux problem.

astro-ph.SR

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

physics.space-ph

Influence of coronal hole morphology on the solar wind speed at Earth

It has long been known that the high-speed stream (HSS) peak velocity at Earth directly depends on the area of the coronal hole (CH) on the Sun. Different degrees of association between the two parameters have been shown by many authors. In this study, we revisit this association in greater detail for a sample of 45 nonpolar CHs during the minimum phase of solar cycle 24. The aim is to understand how CHs of different properties influence the HSS peak speeds observed at Earth and draw from this to improve solar wind modeling. The characteristics of the CHs of our sample were extracted based on the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) which employs an intensity threshold technique applied to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) filtergrams. We first examined all the correlations between the geometric characteristics of the CHs and the HSS peak speed and duration at Earth, for the entire sample. The CHs were then categorized in different groups based on morphological criteria, such as the aspect ratio, the orientation angle and the geometric complexity, a parameter which is often neglected when the formation of the fast solar wind at Earth is studied. Our results, confirmed also by the bootstrapping technique, show that all three aforementioned morphological criteria play a major role in determining the HSS peak speed at 1 AU. Therefore, they need to be taken into consideration for empirical models that aim to forecast the fast solar wind at Earth based on the observed CH solar sources.

astro-ph.SR

How the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth -- An analytical model

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

astro-ph.SR

The Dynamic Time Warping as a Means to Assess Solar Wind Time Series

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development of appropriate metrics in order to assess the performance of those tools. Metrics are necessary to validate models, compare different models and monitor improvements of a certain model over time. In this work, we introduce the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) as an alternative way to evaluate the performance of models and, in particular, to quantify differences between observed and modeled solar wind time series. We present the advantages and drawbacks of this method as well as applications to WIND observations and EUHFORIA predictions at Earth. We show that DTW can warp sequences in time, aiming to align them with the minimum cost by using dynamic programming. It can be applied in two ways for the evaluation of modeled solar wind time series. The first, calculates the sequence similarity factor (SSF), a number that provides a quantification of how good the forecast is, compared to an ideal and a non-ideal prediction scenarios. The second way quantifies the time and amplitude differences between the points that are best matched between the two sequences. As a result, DTW can serve as a hybrid metric between continuous measurements (e.g., the correlation coefficient), and point-by-point comparisons. It is a promising technique for the assessment of solar wind profiles providing at once the most complete evaluation portrait of a model.

astro-ph.SR

A Self-consistent Simulation of Proton Acceleration and Transport Near a High-speed Solar Wind Stream

Solar wind stream interaction regions (SIRs) are often characterized by energetic ion enhancements. The mechanisms accelerating these particles, as well as the locations where the acceleration occurs, remain debated. Here, we report the findings of a simulation of a SIR event observed by Parker Solar Probe at ~0.56 au and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead at ~0.95 au in 2019 September when both spacecraft were approximately radially aligned with the Sun. The simulation reproduces the solar wind configuration and the energetic particle enhancements observed by both spacecraft. Our results show that the energetic particles are produced at the compression waves associated with the SIR and that the suprathermal tail of the solar wind is a good candidate to provide the seed population for particle acceleration. The simulation confirms that the acceleration process does not require shock waves and can already commence within Earth's orbit, with an energy dependence on the precise location where particles are accelerated. The three-dimensional configuration of the solar wind streams strongly modulates the energetic particle distributions, illustrating the necessity of advanced models to understand these particle events.

physics.space-ph

Implementing the MULTI-VP coronal model in EUHFORIA: test case results and comparisons with the WSA coronal model

In this study, we focus on improving EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset), a recently developed 3D MHD space weather prediction tool. EUHFORIA consists of two parts, covering two spatial domains; the solar corona and the inner heliosphere. For the first part, the semi-empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used by default, which employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to provide the necessary solar wind plasma and magnetic conditions above the solar surface, at 0.1 AU, that serve as boundary conditions for the inner heliospheric part. Herein, we present the first results of the implementation of an alternative coronal model in EUHFORIA, the so-called MULTI-VP model. We compared the output of the default coronal model with the output from MULTI-VP at the inner boundary of the heliospheric domain of EUHFORIA in order to understand differences between the two models, before they propagate to Earth. We also compared the performance of WSA+EUHFORIA-heliosphere and MULTI-VP+EUHFORIA-heliosphere against in situ observations at Earth. In the frame of this study, we considered two different high-speed stream cases, one during a period of low solar activity and one during a period of high solar activity. We also employed two different magnetograms, i.e., GONG and WSO. Our results show that the choice of both the coronal model and the magnetogram play an important role on the accuracy of the solar wind prediction. However, it is not clear which component plays the most important role for the modeled results obtained at Earth. A statistical analysis with an appropriate number of simulations is needed to confirm our findings.

astro-ph.SR

A Readily Implemented Atmosphere Sustainability Constraint for Terrestrial Exoplanets Orbiting Magnetically Active Stars

With more than 4,300 confirmed exoplanets and counting, the next milestone in exoplanet research is to determine which of these newly found worlds could harbor life. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), spawn by magnetically active, superflare-triggering dwarf stars, pose a direct threat to the habitability of terrestrial exoplanets as they can deprive them from their atmospheres. Here we develop a readily implementable atmosphere sustainability constraint for terrestrial exoplanets orbiting active dwarfs, relying on the magnetospheric compression caused by CME impacts. Our constraint focuses on a systems understanding of CMEs in our own heliosphere that, applying to a given exoplanet, requires as key input the observed bolometric energy of flares emitted by its host star. Application of our constraint to six famous exoplanets, (Kepler-438b, Proxima-Centauri b, and Trappist-1d, -1e, -1f and -1g), within or in the immediate proximity of their stellar host's habitable zones, showed that only for Kepler-438b might atmospheric sustainability against stellar CMEs be likely. This seems to align with some recent studies that, however, may require far more demanding computational resources and observational inputs. Our physically intuitive constraint can be readily and en masse applied, as is or generalized, to large-scale exoplanet surveys to detect planets that could be sieved for atmospheres and, perhaps, possible biosignatures at higher priority by current and future instrumentation.

astro-ph.EP

On the Dependency between the Peak Velocity of High-speed Solar Wind Streams near Earth and the Area of Their Solar Source Coronal Holes

The relationship between the peak velocities of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth and the areas of their solar source regions, i.e., coronal holes, has been known since the 1970s, but it is still physically not well understood. We perform 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code to show that this empirical relationship forms during the propagation phase of high-speed streams from the Sun to Earth. For this purpose, we neglect the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, and project the areas of coronal holes to a sphere at 0.1 au. We then vary only the areas and latitudes of the coronal holes. The velocity, temperature, and density in the cross section of the corresponding highspeed streams at 0.1 au are set to constant, homogeneous values. Finally, we propagate the associated high-speed streams through the inner heliosphere using the EUHFORIA code. The simulated high-speed stream peak velocities at Earth reveal a linear dependence on the area of their source coronal holes. The slopes of the relationship decrease with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes, and the peak velocities saturate at a value of about 730 km/s, similar to the observations. These findings imply that the empirical relationship between the coronal hole areas and high-speed stream peak velocities does not describe the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, but is a result of the high-speed stream propagation from the Sun to Earth.

astro-ph.SR

Statistical Analysis and Catalog of Non-polar Coronal Holes Covering the SDO-era using CATCH

Coronal holes are usually defined as dark structures as seen in the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray spectrum which are generally associated with open magnetic field. Deriving reliably the coronal hole boundary is of high interest, as its area, underlying magnetic field, and other properties give important hints towards high speed solar wind acceleration processes and on compression regions arriving at Earth. In this study we present a new threshold based extraction method that incorporates the intensity gradient along the coronal hole boundary, which is implemented as a user-friendly SSWIDL GUI. The Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) enables the user to download data, perform guided coronal hole extraction and analyze the underlying photospheric magnetic field. We use CATCH to analyze non-polar coronal holes during the SDO-era, based on 193 Å filtergrams taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms taken by the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Between 2010 and 2019 we investigate 707 coronal holes that are located close to the central meridian. We find coronal holes distributed across latitudes of about +/- 60 degree for which we derive sizes between 1.6 x 10 9 and 1.8 x 10 11 km^2 . The absolute value of the mean signed magnetic field strength tends towards an average of 2.9 +/- 1.9 G. As far as the abundance and size of coronal holes is concerned, we find no distinct trend towards the northern or southern hemisphere. We find that variations in local and global conditions may significantly change the threshold needed for reliable coronal hole extraction and thus, we can highlight the importance of individually assessing and extracting coronal holes.

astro-ph.SR