arXiv subjects

Evangelos Karakolis

Publications and source records attributed to Evangelos Karakolis.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Trustworthy By Design Classification Model for Building Energy Retrofit Decision Support

Improving energy efficiency in residential buildings is critical to combating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Retrofitting existing buildings, which contribute a significant share of energy use, is therefore a key priority, especially in regions with outdated building stock. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) can automate retrofit decision-making and find retrofit strategies. However, their use faces challenges of data availability, model transparency, and compliance with national and EU AI regulations including the AI act, ethics guidelines and the ALTAI. This paper presents a trustworthy-by-design ML-based decision support framework that recommends energy efficiency strategies for residential buildings using minimal user-accessible inputs. The framework merges Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) to augment limited and imbalanced data with a neural network-based multi-label classifier that predicts potential combinations of retrofit actions. To support explanation and trustworthiness, an Explainable AI (XAI) layer using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) clarifies the rationale behind recommendations and guides feature engineering. Two case studies validate performance and generalization: the first leveraging a well-established, large EPC dataset for England and Wales; the second using a small, imbalanced post-retrofit dataset from Latvia (RETROFIT-LAT). Results show that the framework can handle diverse data conditions and improve performance up to 53% compared to the baseline. Overall, the proposed framework provides a feasible, interpretable, and trustworthy AI system for building retrofit decision support through assured performance, usability, and transparency to aid stakeholders in prioritizing effective energy investments and support regulation-compliant, data-driven innovation in sustainable energy transition.

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arXiv2024

AI4EF: Artificial Intelligence for Energy Efficiency in the Building Sector

AI4EF, Artificial Intelligence for Energy Efficiency, is an advanced, user-centric tool designed to support decision-making in building energy retrofitting and efficiency optimization. Leveraging machine learning (ML) and data-driven insights, AI4EF enables stakeholders such as public sector representatives, energy consultants, and building owners to model, analyze, and predict energy consumption, retrofit costs, and environmental impacts of building upgrades. Featuring a modular framework, AI4EF includes customizable building retrofitting, photovoltaic installation assessment, and predictive modeling tools that allow users to input building parameters and receive tailored recommendations for achieving energy savings and carbon reduction goals. Additionally, the platform incorporates a Training Playground for data scientists to refine ML models used by said framework. Finally, AI4EF provides access to the Enershare Data Space to facilitate seamless data sharing and access within the ecosystem. Its compatibility with open-source identity management, Keycloak, enhances security and accessibility, making it adaptable for various regulatory and organizational contexts. This paper presents an architectural overview of AI4EF, its application in energy efficiency scenarios, and its potential for advancing sustainable energy practices through artificial intelligence (AI).

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arXiv2024

Trustworthy artificial intelligence in the energy sector: Landscape analysis and evaluation framework

The present study aims to evaluate the current fuzzy landscape of Trustworthy AI (TAI) within the European Union (EU), with a specific focus on the energy sector. The analysis encompasses legal frameworks, directives, initiatives, and standards like the AI Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI (EGTAI), the Assessment List for Trustworthy AI (ALTAI), the AI act, and relevant CEN-CENELEC standardization efforts, as well as EU-funded projects such as AI4EU and SHERPA. Subsequently, we introduce a new TAI application framework, called E-TAI, tailored for energy applications, including smart grid and smart building systems. This framework draws inspiration from EGTAI but is customized for AI systems in the energy domain. It is designed for stakeholders in electrical power and energy systems (EPES), including researchers, developers, and energy experts linked to transmission system operators, distribution system operators, utilities, and aggregators. These stakeholders can utilize E-TAI to develop and evaluate AI services for the energy sector with a focus on ensuring trustworthiness throughout their development and iterative assessment processes.

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arXiv2023

DeepTSF: Codeless machine learning operations for time series forecasting

This paper presents DeepTSF, a comprehensive machine learning operations (MLOps) framework aiming to innovate time series forecasting through workflow automation and codeless modeling. DeepTSF automates key aspects of the ML lifecycle, making it an ideal tool for data scientists and MLops engineers engaged in machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)-based forecasting. DeepTSF empowers users with a robust and user-friendly solution, while it is designed to seamlessly integrate with existing data analysis workflows, providing enhanced productivity and compatibility. The framework offers a front-end user interface (UI) suitable for data scientists, as well as other higher-level stakeholders, enabling comprehensive understanding through insightful visualizations and evaluation metrics. DeepTSF also prioritizes security through identity management and access authorization mechanisms. The application of DeepTSF in real-life use cases of the I-NERGY project has already proven DeepTSF's efficacy in DL-based load forecasting, showcasing its significant added value in the electrical power and energy systems domain.

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arXiv2023

Targeted demand response for flexible energy communities using clustering techniques

The present study proposes clustering techniques for designing demand response (DR) programs for commercial and residential prosumers. The goal is to alter the consumption behavior of the prosumers within a distributed energy community in Italy. This aggregation aims to: a) minimize the reverse power flow at the primary substation, occuring when generation from solar panels in the local grid exceeds consumption, and b) shift the system wide peak demand, that typically occurs during late afternoon. Regarding the clustering stage, we consider daily prosumer load profiles and divide them across the extracted clusters. Three popular machine learning algorithms are employed, namely k-means, k-medoids and agglomerative clustering. We evaluate the methods using multiple metrics including a novel metric proposed within this study, namely peak performance score (PPS). The k-means algorithm with dynamic time warping distance considering 14 clusters exhibits the highest performance with a PPS of 0.689. Subsequently, we analyze each extracted cluster with respect to load shape, entropy, and load types. These characteristics are used to distinguish the clusters that have the potential to serve the optimization objectives by matching them to proper DR schemes including time of use, critical peak pricing, and real-time pricing. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed clustering algorithm in generating meaningful flexibility clusters, while the derived DR pricing policy encourages consumption during off-peak hours. The developed methodology is robust to the low availability and quality of training datasets and can be used by aggregator companies for segmenting energy communities and developing personalized DR policies.

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arXiv2023

A comparative assessment of deep learning models for day-ahead load forecasting: Investigating key accuracy drivers

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is vital for the effective and economic operation of power grids and energy markets. However, the non-linearity and non-stationarity of electricity demand as well as its dependency on various external factors renders STLF a challenging task. To that end, several deep learning models have been proposed in the literature for STLF, reporting promising results. In order to evaluate the accuracy of said models in day-ahead forecasting settings, in this paper we focus on the national net aggregated STLF of Portugal and conduct a comparative study considering a set of indicative, well-established deep autoregressive models, namely multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), neural basis expansion coefficient analysis (N-BEATS), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). Moreover, we identify factors that significantly affect the demand and investigate their impact on the accuracy of each model. Our results suggest that N-BEATS consistently outperforms the rest of the examined models. MLP follows, providing further evidence towards the use of feed-forward networks over relatively more sophisticated architectures. Finally, certain calendar and weather features like the hour of the day and the temperature are identified as key accuracy drivers, providing insights regarding the forecasting approach that should be used per case.

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arXiv2023

In Search of Deep Learning Architectures for Load Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis and the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Model Performance

In power grids, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial as it contributes to the optimization of their reliability, emissions, and costs, while it enables the participation of energy companies in the energy market. STLF is a challenging task, due to the complex demand of active and reactive power from multiple types of electrical loads and their dependence on numerous exogenous variables. Amongst them, special circumstances, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can often be the reason behind distribution shifts of load series. This work conducts a comparative study of Deep Learning (DL) architectures, namely Neural Basis Expansion Analysis Time Series Forecasting (N-BEATS), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), with respect to forecasting accuracy and training sustainability, meanwhile examining their out-of-distribution generalization capabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic era. A Pattern Sequence Forecasting (PSF) model is used as baseline. The case study focuses on day-ahead forecasts for the Portuguese national 15-minute resolution net load time series. The results can be leveraged by energy companies and network operators (i) to reinforce their forecasting toolkit with state-of-the-art DL models; (ii) to become aware of the serious consequences of crisis events on model performance; (iii) as a high-level model evaluation, deployment, and sustainability guide within a smart grid context.

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