Evangelos Panos | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

The electricity system value of the local acceptance of onshore wind in Europe

The large-scale deployment of wind power is central to Europe`s energy transition but faces challenges due to its social and environmental impacts on communities. Here we assess how the tolerance of local stakeholders to such impacts translates across spatial scales to shape the cost and design of the continent`s net-zero electricity system using a soft-linked modelling framework. We find that lower impact tolerance can reduce the role of onshore wind in Europe reaching net-zero by up to 84% relative to a future where wind enjoys higher acceptance, with other low carbon sources needing to be scaled up to compensate. This translates into total European electricity system costs increasing by between 2-14% while some countries see costs escalating by 20% or more. Our results show that the local acceptance of onshore wind is a key structural driver of the system and highlight the system value of policies to promote it.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

European Energy Vision 2060: Charting Diverse Pathways for Europe's Energy Transition

Europe is warming at the fastest rate of all continents, experiencing a temperature increase of about 1°C higher than the corresponding global increase. Aiming to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under the European Green Deal, Europe requires an in-depth understanding of the potential energy transition pathways. In this paper, we develop four qualitative long-term scenarios covering the European energy landscape, considering key uncertainty pillars -- categorized under social, technological, economic, political, and geopolitical aspects. First, we place the scenarios in a three-dimensional space defined by Social dynamics, Innovation, and Geopolitical instabilities. These scenarios are brought to life by defining their narratives and focus areas according to their location in this three-dimensional space. The scenarios envision diverse futures and include distinct features. The EU Trinity scenario pictures how internal divisions among EU member states, in the context of global geopolitical instability, affect the EU climate targets. The REPowerEU++ scenario outlines the steps needed for a self-sufficient, independent European energy system by 2050. The Go RES scenario examines the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality earlier than 2050 given favourable uncertain factors. The NECP Essentials scenario extends current national energy and climate plans until 2060 to assess their role in realizing climate neutrality. The scenarios are extended by incorporating policies and economic factors and detailed in a Qualitative to Quantitative (Q2Q) matrix, linking narratives to quantification. Finally, two scenarios are quantified to illustrate the quantification process. All the scenarios are in the process of being quantified and will be openly available and reusable.

eess.SY↗