arXiv subjects

Evgenii Kuriabov

Publications and source records attributed to Evgenii Kuriabov.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Co-Supervised Tree Synthesis for Interpretable Subgroup Identification and Honest Treatment Effect Inference in Randomized Trials

Identifying patient subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects is central to precision medicine, yet existing approaches face a tension. Black-box methods estimate individualized effects well but yield no interpretable subgroups, while tree-based methods produce explicit partitions but are unstable and less accurate in moderate-sample trials. We propose CausalSynthTree, a co-supervised method in which black-box causal estimators guide construction of an interpretable tree. It partitions the covariate space into cells, fits cell-wise conditional average treatment effect models from both observed data and synthetic data labeled by black-box causal teachers, and synthesizes them into a tree through a treatment-effect disparity criterion. Each leaf carries a sparse linear model, so the tree path defines a subgroup and the leaf model shows which covariates modify the effect. Honest inference for leaf-wise effects remains valid despite co-supervised augmentation and data-driven subgroup selection. In simulations it closes much of the gap between the two families. From moderate sample sizes onward it is more accurate than the black-box learners whenever the effect is linear or has a single threshold, and trails them only on a finer partition than the tree it grows. It controls spurious splits and attains nominal coverage throughout. In the ACTG175 HIV trial, where standard interaction tests detect no effect modification, the method reports no subgroups while the competing tree methods report several. In an adjuvant colon cancer trial it reports a borderline covariate in part of the resamples, together with a within-region age gradient that is consistent with an independent test.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Optimized Instance Alteration for Explaining and Assessing Robustness of Classifiers

In this work, we propose a unified approach for diagnosing misclassification and assessing the robustness of black-box classifiers. Central to our method is an optimization framework that modifies an instance so that the classifier predicts a specified target label, while ensuring that the modification remains easily explainable. The objective function contains two components: an explainability-aware $L_0$ (XA-$L_0$) penalty that promotes sparse and interpretable modifications, and a classifier loss objective that steers the perturbed instance toward the desired output. This integrated optimization formulation is used both to identify the underlying causes of misclassification and to evaluate robustness by determining how an instance can change within a tolerance region before being reassigned to another class. To quantify robustness, we introduce the Tolerance Region Confusion Matrix (TOR-Confusion Matrix), which measures a classifier's susceptibility by modeling the class-to-class transition probabilities induced by tolerance-bounded perturbations. We validate the proposed method on both image and tabular datasets, demonstrating its ability to jointly deliver interpretability and robustness assessment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Large language models show fragile cognitive reasoning about human emotions

Affective computing seeks to support the holistic development of artificial intelligence by enabling machines to engage with human emotion. Recent foundation models, particularly large language models (LLMs), have been trained and evaluated on emotion-related tasks, typically using supervised learning with discrete emotion labels. Such evaluations largely focus on surface phenomena, such as recognizing expressed or evoked emotions, leaving open whether these systems reason about emotion in cognitively meaningful ways. Here we ask whether LLMs can reason about emotions through underlying cognitive dimensions rather than labels alone. Drawing on cognitive appraisal theory, we introduce CoRE, a large-scale benchmark designed to probe the implicit cognitive structures LLMs use when interpreting emotionally charged situations. We assess alignment with human appraisal patterns, internal consistency, cross-model generalization, and robustness to contextual variation. We find that LLMs capture systematic relations between cognitive appraisals and emotions but show misalignment with human judgments and instability across contexts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

SynthTree: Co-supervised Local Model Synthesis for Explainable Prediction

Explainable machine learning (XML) has emerged as a major challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Although black-box models such as Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting often exhibit exceptional predictive accuracy, their lack of interpretability is a notable drawback, particularly in domains requiring transparency and trust. This paper tackles this core AI problem by proposing a novel method to enhance explainability with minimal accuracy loss, using a Mixture of Linear Models (MLM) estimated under the co-supervision of black-box models. We have developed novel methods for estimating MLM by leveraging AI techniques. Specifically, we explore two approaches for partitioning the input space: agglomerative clustering and decision trees. The agglomerative clustering approach provides greater flexibility in model construction, while the decision tree approach further enhances explainability, yielding a decision tree model with linear or logistic regression models at its leaf nodes. Comparative analyses with widely-used and state-of-the-art predictive models demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods. Experimental results show that statistical models can significantly enhance the explainability of AI, thereby broadening their potential for real-world applications. Our findings highlight the critical role that statistical methodologies can play in advancing explainable AI.

stat.ME↗