arXiv subjects

Evgenya L. Shkolnik

Publications and source records attributed to Evgenya L. Shkolnik.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

New and Updated Rossiter-McLaughlin Measurements for Three Hot Jupiter-Hosting M Dwarfs

Evidence suggests that Kozai-Lidov high-eccentricity migration (HEM) is the dominant migration channel for short-period Giant Exoplanets around M dwarf Stars (GEMS). However, it is unlikely that all short-period GEMS form via HEM, given that most systems lack known massive companions capable of driving HEM. Characterizing the stellar obliquities of GEMS via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect can help shed light on the dynamical histories of GEMS. We present RM effect detections for the GEMS TOI-5205 b, TIC 46432937 b, and TOI-3714 b using the Gemini-North/MAROON-X spectrograph, bringing the total number of GEMS with RM detections to five. Our systems are well-aligned, with sky-projected obliquities of $λ= 0 \pm 6^\circ$, $3_{-3}^{+4}$$^\circ$, and $15_{-8}^{+12}$$^\circ$, respectively, and we measure a deprojected obliquity of $ψ= 24_{-8}^{+7}$ $^\circ$ for TOI-3714. We analyze archival radial velocities, astrometry, and speckle imaging data to search for additional companions around all five known GEMS with RM detections. We find tentative evidence for a new massive companion around one of these GEMS, TOI-5293 A, in Gaia DR2+DR3 data, though further follow-up is needed for confirmation. We rule out massive companions between $\sim 1-10\textrm{ AU}$ in the remaining systems, but cannot rule out all companions capable of driving HEM. Our findings present further evidence that short-period GEMS are preferentially aligned. While current results remain consistent with both primordial alignment and HEM plus tidal damping, we offer future directions for studies to further constrain the dominant migration channel for GEMS.

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arXiv2026

Preparing for the Early eVolution Explorer: The Impact of Flare Temperature on Ozone Column Depth in Earth-Like Atmospheres

Atmospheric photochemical models incorporating the impacts of stellar flares often assume a $\sim$9,000 K spectrum at ultraviolet-optical wavelengths. Recent multiwavelength observations, however, reveal a more complex picture with temperature measurements spanning 4,000-40,000 K, although the occurrence rates for flares with different temperatures remain unknown. Here, we model the evolution of a Proterozoic Earth-like world with 0.01 bar of O$_2$ under repeated flaring to identify the impact of flare effective temperatures. We explore four scenarios - two host star types (K2V and M2.5V) and two flare temperatures (9,000 K and 19,000 K) - selected to bound the potential parameter space. The hotter flares have a larger impact on O$_3$ photochemistry for both stellar types. M-star planetary atmospheres are more volatile and exhibit rapid changes in their O$_3$ production and destruction rates. Meanwhile, K-star planetary atmospheres are more stable and are only impacted by the hottest flares, proving advantageous for biosignature searches. We simulate 0.2-1.0 $μ$m reflected light spectra for all four scenarios, and find that 19,000 K flares can result in either production or destruction of O$_3$ depending on the host star spectral type increasing the 0.2 $μ$m feature by $\sim$2$\times$ for the K2V star but decreasing it by 50% for the M2.5V star. Future missions such as the EVE SMEX mission concept will provide robust flare temperature constraints for young FGKM stars, which will serve as inputs to improve photochemical models to inform future HWO observations.

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arXiv2026

The Effects of M Star Age Dependent Ultraviolet Emission on Detecting and Interpreting Exoplanet Biosignatures

Given their abundance and observational advantages, M stars will arguably be the best candidates for characterizing and searching for biosignatures on terrestrial exoplanets in the near future. However, photochemistry that can suppress or enhance key biosignature molecules in planetary atmospheres is primarily driven by UV flux from the host M star, which is influenced by stellar activity that decreases with age. Here, we simulate Pre-Industrial Earth-like and Archean Earth-like atmospheres around M4 and M8 stars from 650 Myr to 5 Gyr old. We find that our Pre-Industrial Earth atmospheres around 5 Gyr M stars have up to ten times more CH$_4$ than those around 650 Myr M stars, producing 68% stronger methane bands in NIR transit spectroscopy. Additionally, photochemical shielding from O$_2$ in our Pre-Industrial Earth atmospheres reduces the impact UV-driven photochemistry on composition, while the Archean Earth exhibits larger compositional changes due to weaker shielding from CO$_2$. Lastly, enhanced CO$_2$ photolysis, driven by the strong net UV flux and high Far/Near-UV ratios of 650 Myr and 1 Gyr M stars, cause our Archean Earth-like planets to produce up to 5.4 dex more O$_3$ than when around 5 Gyr M stars. The excess O$_3$ causes the Archean Earth to become half as reflective in the 0.2-0.3 $\mathrmμ$m Hartley band feature in ultraviolet reflectance spectroscopy, which the Habitable Worlds Observatory may be sensitive to. Without the context of the star's real-time, age-dependent UV radiation, this O$_3$ feature could be misinterpreted as a proxy for low, biogenic O$_2$.

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arXiv2026

Preparing for the Early eVolution Explorer: Detecting the Primordial, Transiting Exoplanet Population

The close-in small planet population may be formed either with hydrogen/helium dominated envelopes or with water-rich interiors. Both scenarios reproduce the present day planet population in mass, radius, and periods, and are difficult to differentiate with the mature planet demographic. Hydrogen/Helium `gas-dwarfs' have low mean molecular weight atmospheres, while `water-worlds' have envelopes that are significantly heavier, and as such these two scenarios have different evolution tracks that diverge in the first ~50 Myr of their evolution. We show that a low Earth orbit multi-band photometric survey mission, within the scope of the NASA Small Explorers Program (SMEX), can determine the frequency of young close-in planets at the 5% level and definitively differentiate between the competing `gas-dwarf' and `water-world' hypotheses. We simulate a 2.5 year mission capable of simultaneous multi-band near-ultraviolet (NUV), optical, and near infrared (NIR) wide field photometry. Such a mission would perform a photometric survey of 30 different stare-fields selected to probe the young star population. The mission will yield ~100 transiting planets in young star clusters and associations with ages <50 Myr. In comparison, only 20 such planets are known from K2 and TESS today.

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arXiv2026

The Range of Cumulative XUV Flux on GJ 1132 b

We investigate the plausible history of the XUV luminosity evolution of the planet-hosting M4 star GJ 1132 (~0.2 solar masses) to infer the cumulative incident XUV flux intercepted by the short-period (~1.6 d) Earth-sized transiting planet GJ 1132 b. We include the dominant observational uncertainties, compare two quiescent XUV luminosity evolution models, and simulate the XUV luminosity evolution from flares based on TESS data and a re-analysis of Kepler stars. We find only 4 flares in GJ 1132's TESS 123 day lightcurve, which is relatively few for M dwarfs and, in conjunction with the ~125 day period, suggests that this star is many Gyr old. We find that all model permutations predict that the planet has at least a 95% chance of receiving more than 50 times as much XUV flux as modern Earth, confirming that this planet is a good candidate for permanent atmospheric loss. We also find that an empirical XUV model for M dwarfs predicts 2-3 times more total XUV flux than a commonly used solar twin model and that the empirical model's distribution is 2-3 times narrower. Flares contribute about 20% of the cumulative XUV flux on planet b, which, while modest, ensures the planet lies firmly on the atmosphere-free side of the "cosmic shoreline."

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arXiv2025

The Exospace Weather Frontier

Space weather is among the most powerful and least understood forces shaping planetary atmospheres. In our Solar System, we observe its effects directly: atmospheric escape, chemical disruption, and spectacular auroral displays. Yet for exoplanets, we lack the tools and data to comprehensively assess the impacts of space weather, especially invisible elements like stellar winds, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and variable interplanetary magnetic fields. This problem lies at the intersection of four key fields: heliophysics, planetary science, astrobiology, and astrophysics. In 2023--2025, experts from these four fields convened at the W. M. Keck Institute for Space Studies to explore pathways for advancing the study of exospace weather. Organizing the subject into five core themes -- planets and their stellar particle environments, stellar magnetism and space weather modeling, quasi-steady stellar winds, transient events, and programmatic pathways -- our team synthesized concepts from across relevant fields and identified a wide array of opportunities for progress. This report is the product of that effort. It assembles cross-disciplinary knowledge; highlights outstanding theoretical challenges; explores promising innovations in observation, modeling, methodology, and instrumentation; and makes recommendations for accelerating community-wide progress. Together, these lay out a path to transforming the challenging, yet tractable problem of exospace weather into a foundational element of our understanding exoplanetary systems, and our own Solar System, in their entirety.

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arXiv2025

Constraining the Mass Loss and the Kinetic Energy of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections with Far-Ultraviolet Flares

Stellar eruptive events, such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can affect planetary habitability by disturbing the stability of their atmospheres. For instance, strong stellar flares and CMEs can trigger atmospheric escape and, in extreme cases, may strip away the atmosphere completely. While stellar flares have been observed and explored at a wide range of wavelengths, the physical properties of stellar CMEs remain unconstrained due to the difficulty in observing them. In this context, the Sun provides our only window on the potential characteristics of CMEs on Sun-like stars. A correlation between solar X-ray flare peak flux and the mass of flare-associated solar CMEs has been reported using solar data collected during Solar Cycle 23 (Aarnio et al. 2011). Here, we build upon that work. We extend the correlation into the far-UV (FUV), where stellar flares are, and will continue to be, routinely detected with existing and future FUV observatories by incorporating data spanning two entire Solar Cycles (23 and 24; 1996-2019). Using three different space missions (CMEs from LASCO/SOHO, X-ray flare events from XRS/GOES, and FUV flares from AIA/SDO), we report a correlation between FUV flare peak flux and energy centered at 1600 Å and mass, kinetic energy, and linear speed of flare-associated CMEs. These empirical relations enable estimates of CME masses and kinetic energies from FUV flares on Sun-like stars. While direct stellar CME detections remain elusive, the correlations derived here are likely applicable to Sun-like stars and provide a working framework for evaluating exoplanet atmospheric erosion.

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arXiv2025

Lyman-Alpha Emission from K and M Dwarfs: Intrinsic Profiles, Variability, and Flux in the Habitable Zone

Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) is the most prominent ultraviolet emission line in low-mass stars, playing a crucial role in exoplanet atmospheric photochemistry, heating, and escape. However, interstellar medium (ISM) absorption typically obscures most of the Ly$α$ profile, requiring reconstructions that introduce systematic uncertainties. We present intrinsic Ly$α$ profiles for 12 high radial velocity K and M dwarfs, where Doppler shifting minimizes ISM contamination, allowing direct measurements of $\sim$50-95\% of the line flux. Our sample spans the K-to-M spectral transition, enabling us to constrain the dependence of self-reversals in Ly$α$ emission profiles on effective temperature ($T_{eff}$). The depth of self-reversal, driven by non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) effects, decreases with decreasing $T_{eff}$, with M dwarfs exhibiting little to none. Two stars, Ross 1044 and Ross 451, were observed over multiple days, revealing $\sim$20\% Ly$α$ variability confined to the line core - implying that studies relying on reconstructions may underestimate temporal variability. We find strong correlations between Ly$α$ flux, peak-to-trough ratio, and hydrogen departure coefficients with $T_{eff}$, providing empirical constraints for stellar atmosphere models. A comparison of Ly$α$ flux in the habitable zone shows measured values for high radial velocity stars less than the reconstructed values for the rest of the sample, likely due to the older ages of the high-RV stars and/or overestimated reconstructed fluxes due to model deficiency (e.g., neglecting self-reversal). Our results establish an empirical foundation for Ly$α$ emission in K and M dwarfs, reducing uncertainties in reconstructions and improving models of stellar UV emission relevant to exoplanetary studies.

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arXiv2025

Aligned Stellar Obliquities for Two Hot Jupiter-hosting M Dwarfs Revealed by MAROON-X: Implications for Hot Jupiter Formation

Hot Jupiters (HJs) are $2-3\times$ less common around early M dwarfs than around AFGK stars, suggesting that HJs may form and/or migrate via distinct pathways around different types of stars. One source of insight into HJ formation mechanisms is to trace their dynamical histories through measurements of host stellar obliquities via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. Here we present measurements of the RM effect for the HJs TOI-3714 b and TOI-5293 A b using the Gemini-North/MAROON-X spectrograph. Our measurements represent just the second and third hot Jupiters around M dwarfs (HJMD) with a detection of the RM effect. We find that both systems are well-aligned with sky-projected obliquities of $λ= 21^{+14}_{-11}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and $-12^{+19}_{-14}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and deprojected obliquities of $ψ= 26^{+11}_{-10}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ and $24^{+11}_{-10}$$\mathrm{^{\circ}}$ for TOI-3714 and TOI-5293 A, respectively. Both stars are in wide binary systems. We refine the stellar parameters by decontaminating their unresolved $K_s$-band photometry and constrain the binary orbits using Gaia DR3 astrometry. We find that the minimum mutual inclination of the planet and binary companion in the TOI-5293 system is sufficiently large to drive Kozai-Lidov (KL) migration while the result for TOI-3714 is inconclusive. We present a population-level analysis of HJs around AFGK versus early M dwarfs and argue that KL migration is more efficient around the latter, which is expected to produce misaligned stellar obliquities in HJMD systems in the absence of efficient tidal damping. The emerging population of well-aligned HJMD hosts supports the expectation that M dwarfs, with their deep convective envelopes, do efficiently dampen misaligned obliquities.

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arXiv2025

The SPACE Program. I. The featureless spectrum of HD 86226 c challenges sub-Neptune atmosphere trends

Sub-Neptune exoplanets are the most abundant type of planet known today. As they do not have a Solar System counterpart, many open questions exist about their composition and formation. Previous spectroscopic studies rule out aerosol-free hydrogen-helium-dominated atmospheres for many characterized sub-Neptunes but are inconclusive about their exact atmospheric compositions. Here we characterize the hot (Teq=1311K) sub-Neptune HD 86226 c, which orbits its G-type host star. Its high equilibrium temperature prohibits methane-based haze formation, increasing the chances for a clear atmosphere on this planet. We use HST data taken with WFC3 and STIS from the Sub-neptune Planetary Atmosphere Characterization Experiment (SPACE) Program to perform near-infrared 1.1-1.7micrometer transmission spectroscopy and UV characterization of the host star. We report a featureless transmission spectrum that is consistent within 0.4 sigma with a constant transit depth of 418+-14ppm. The amplitude of this spectrum is only 0.01 scale heights for a H/He-dominated atmosphere, excluding a cloud-free solar-metallicity atmosphere on HD 86226 c with a confidence of 6.5 sigma. Based on an atmospheric retrieval analysis and forward models of cloud and haze formation, we find that the featureless spectrum could be due to a metal enrichment [M/H] above 2.3 (3 sigma confidence lower limit) of a cloudless atmosphere, or silicate (MgSiO3), iron (Fe), or manganese sulfide (MnS) clouds. For these species, we perform an investigation of cloud formation in high-metallicity, high-temperature atmospheres. Our results highlight that HD 86226c does not follow the aerosol trend of sub-Neptunes found by previous studies. Follow-up observations with the JWST could determine whether this planet aligns with the recent detections of metal-enriched atmospheres or if it harbors a cloud species otherwise atypical for sub-Neptunes.

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arXiv2025

Building SPARCS, an Ultraviolet Science CubeSat for Exoplanet Habitability Studies, Technology Advancements, and Mission Training

The Star-Planet Activity Research CubeSat (SPARCS) is a NASA-funded 6U-CubeSat mission designed to monitor ultraviolet (UV) radiation from low-mass stars. These stars' relatively high-frequency and high-energy UV flares significantly affect the atmospheres of orbiting exoplanets, driving atmospheric loss and altering the conditions for habitability. SPARCS aims to capture time-resolved photometric data in the far-UV and near-UV simultaneously to better characterize the flares and detect the strongest and rarest among them. In addition, SPARCS is testing innovative technology, such as delta-doped detectors with near 100% internal quantum efficiency and detector-integrated metaldielectric UV bandpass filters. This mission will increase the technology readiness level of these critical components, positioning them for inclusion in future flagship missions like the Habitable Worlds Observatory. This paper outlines SPARCS' mission goals and provides an update as the spacecraft is completed and awaits its planned late-2025 launch to a sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. It also highlights the critical role of small missions in providing training and leadership development opportunities for students and researchers, advancing technology for larger observatories, and shares lessons learned from collaborations between academic, government, and industry partners.

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arXiv2025

Stringent Limits on H$_3^+$ Emission from the Hot Jupiters WASP-80b and WASP-69b

Observations of auroras on exoplanets would provide numerous insights into planet-star systems, including potential detections of the planetary magnetic fields, constraints on host-star wind properties, and information on the thermal structures of planets. However, there have not yet been any discoveries of auroras on exoplanets. In this paper, we focus on the search for infrared auroral emission from the molecular ion H$_3^+$, which is common in the atmospheres of solar system planets Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Using Keck/NIRSPEC high-resolution spectroscopy, we search for H$_3^+$ emission from two hot Jupiters, WASP-80b and WASP-69b. We do not see any evidence of emission in the observed spectra when cross-correlating with an H$_3^+$ spectral model or when using an auto-correlation approach to search for any significant features. We therefore place upper limits on the total emission of $5.32 \times 10^{18}$ W for WASP-80b and $1.64 \times 10^{19}$ W for WASP-69b. These upper limits represent the most stringent limits to date and approach the regime of emission suspected from theoretical models.

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arXiv2025

The Impact of Stellar Flares on the Atmospheric Escape of Exoplanets orbiting M stars I: Insights from the AU Mic System

The X-rays and Extreme Ultraviolet (XUV) emission from M stars can drive the atmospheric escape on planets orbiting them. M stars are also known for their frequent emission of stellar flares, which will increase the high-energy flux received by their orbiting planets. To understand how stellar flares impact the primordial atmospheres of planets orbiting young M stars, we use UV spectroscopic data of flares from the Habitable Zones and M dwarf Activity across Time (HAZMAT) and Measurements of the Ultraviolet Spectral Characteristics of Low-mass Exoplanetary Systems (MUSCLES) programs as a proxy to the XUV flare emission. Using the software package VPLanet, we simulate the young AU Mic planetary system composed of two Neptune-sized and one Earth-sized planet orbiting a 23-Myr-old M1 star. Our findings show that the Earth-sized planet AU Mic d should be in the process of losing completely its atmosphere in the next couple million years, solely due to the quiescent emission, with flares not significantly contributing to its atmospheric escape due to the small size of AU mic d and its close-in distance from the star. However, our results indicate that flares would play a crucial role for such planets further away, in the habitable zone (i.e. 0.2935 AU) of AU Mic-like stars during the post-saturation phase, accelerating the total atmospheric loss process by a few billion years. For planets between 0.365 AU and the HZ outer edge, the additional XUV from flares is necessary to deplete primordial atmospheres fully since the quiescent emission alone is insufficient.

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arXiv2024

Signatures of Star-planet Interactions

Planets interact with their host stars through gravity, radiation and magnetic fields, and for those giant planets that orbit their stars within ~10 stellar radii (~0.1 AU for a sun-like star), star-planet interactions (SPI) are observable with a wide variety of photometric, spectroscopic and spectropolarimetric studies. At such close distances, the planet orbits within the sub-alfvenic radius of the star in which the transfer of energy and angular momentum between the two bodies is particularly efficient. The magnetic interactions appear as enhanced stellar activity modulated by the planet as it orbits the star rather than only by stellar rotation. Such observations allowed for the determination of the magnetic field strengths on the surfaces of four hot Jupiters. These vary between 20 G and 120 G, in line with scaling laws that connect the strength of the magnetic field to the internal heat flow in giant planets. These field strengths are informative for the study of the internal dynamics and atmospheric evolution of exoplanets. The nature of magnetic SPI is modeled to be strongly affected by both the stellar and planetary magnetic fields, possibly influencing the magnetic activity of both, as well as affecting the particle environment, the migration of the planet, and even the rotational evolution of the star. As phase-resolved observational techniques are applied to a large statistical sample of hot Jupiter systems, extensions to other tightly orbiting stellar systems, such as smaller planets close to M dwarfs become possible. In these systems, star-planet separations of tens of stellar radii begin to coincide with the radiative habitable zone where planetary magnetic fields are likely a necessary condition for surface habitability.

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arXiv2024

Optically Quiet, But FUV Loud: Results from comparing the far-ultraviolet predictions of flare models with TESS and HST

The far-ultraviolet (FUV) flare activity of low-mass stars has become a focus in our understanding of the exoplanet atmospheres and how they evolve. However, direct detection of FUV flares and measurements of their energies and rates are limited by the need for space-based observations. The difficulty of obtaining such observations may push some works to use widely available optical data to calibrate multi-wavelength spectral models that describe UV and optical flare emission. These models either use single temperature blackbody curves to describe this emission, or combine a blackbody curve with archival spectra. These calibrated models would then be used to predict the FUV flare rates of low-mass stars of interest. To aid these works, we used TESS optical photometry and archival HST FUV spectroscopy to test the FUV predictions of literature flare models. We tested models for partially (M0-M2) and fully convective (M4-M5) stars, 40 Myr and field age stars, and optically quiet stars. We calculated FUV energy correction factors that can be used to bring the FUV predictions of tested models in line with observations. A flare model combining optical and NUV blackbody emission with FUV emission based on HST observations provided the best estimate of FUV flare activity, where others underestimated the emission at all ages, masses and activity levels, by up to a factor of 104 for combined FUV continuum and line emission and greater for individual emission lines. We also confirmed previous findings that showed optically quiet low-mass stars exhibit regular FUV flares.

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arXiv2024

Flares, Rotation, Activity Cycles and a Magnetic Star-Planet Interaction Hypothesis for the Far Ultraviolet Emission of GJ 436

Variability in the far ultraviolet (FUV) emission produced by stellar activity affects photochemistry and heating in orbiting planetary atmospheres. We present a comprehensive analysis of the FUV variability of GJ 436, a field-age, M2.5V star ($P_\mathrm{rot}\approx44$ d) orbited by a warm, Neptune-size planet ($M \approx 25\ M_\oplus$, $R \approx 4.1\ R_\oplus$, $P_\mathrm{orb}\approx2.6$ d). Observations at three epochs from 2012 to 2018 span nearly a full activity cycle, sample two rotations of the star and two orbital periods of the planet, and reveal a multitude of brief flares. Over 2012-2018, the star's $7.75\pm0.10$ yr activity cycle produced the largest observed variations, $38\pm3$% in the summed flux of major FUV emission lines. In 2018, variability due to rotation was $8\pm2$%. An additional $11\pm1$% scatter at 10 min cadence, treated as white noise in fits, likely has both instrumental and astrophysical origins. Flares increased time-averaged emission by 15% over the 0.88 d of cumulative exposure, peaking as high as 25$\times$ quiescence. We interpret these flare values as lower limits given that flares too weak or too infrequent to have been observed likely exist. GJ 436's flare frequency distribution (FFD) at FUV wavelengths is unusual compared to other field-age M dwarfs, exhibiting a statistically-significant dearth of high energy ($>4\times 10^{28}$ erg) events that we hypothesize to be the result of a magnetic star-planet interaction (SPI) triggering premature flares. If an SPI is present, GJ 436 b's magnetic field strength must be $\lesssim$100 G to explain the statistically insignificant increase in orbit-phased FUV emission. Erratum: Due to an arithmetic error, the published limit on the magnetic field strength is incorrect. The correct limit is $\lesssim$10 G.

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arXiv2024

A Dragon's Flame of Many Colours: Multi-wavelength Observations of Flares from the Active M Binary CR Draconis

We present the results of a multi-wavelength Pro-Am campaign to study the behaviour of flares from the active M1.5V star binary CR Draconis. CR Dra was observed with TESS 20-s photometry, Swift near-UV (NUV) grism spectroscopy and with ground-based optical photometry and spectroscopy from a global collaboration of amateur astronomers. We detected 14 flares with TESS and Swift simultaneously, one of which also had simultaneous ground-based photometry and spectroscopy. We used the simultaneous two-colour optical and NUV observations to characterise the temperature evolution of the flare and test the accuracy of using optical data to predict NUV emission. We measured a peak temperature of $7100^{+150}_{-130}$ K for this flare, cooler than the typically assumed 9000 K blackbody model used by flare studies. We also found that the 9000 K blackbody overestimated the NUV flux for other flares in our sample, which we attributed to our Swift observations occurring during flare decays, highlighting the phase-dependence for the accuracy of flare models.

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arXiv2023

The Occurrence Rate of Quiescent Radio Emission for Ultracool Dwarfs using a Generalized Semi-Analytical Bayesian Framework

We present a generalized analytical Bayesian framework for calculating the occurrence rate of steady emission (or absorption) in astrophysical objects. As a proof-of-concept, we apply this framework to non-flaring quiescent radio emission in ultracool ($\leq$ M7) dwarfs. Using simulations, we show that our framework recovers the simulated radio occurrence rate to within 1-5% for sample sizes of 10-100 objects when averaged over an ensemble of trials and simulated occurrence rates for our assumed luminosity distribution models. In contrast, existing detection rate studies may under-predict the simulated rate by 51-66% because of sensitivity limits. Using all available literature results for samples of 82 ultracool M dwarfs, 74 L dwarfs, and 23 T/Y dwarfs, we find that the maximum-likelihood quiescent radio occurrence rate is between $15^{+4}_{-4}$ - $20^{+6}_{-5}$%, depending on the luminosity prior that we assume. Comparing each spectral type, we find occurrence rates of $17^{+9}_{-7}$ - $25^{+13}_{-10}$% for M dwarfs, $10^{+5}_{-4}$ - $13^{+7}_{-5}$% for L dwarfs, and $23^{+11}_{-9}$ - $29^{+13}_{-11}$% for T/Y dwarfs. We rule out potential selection effects and speculate that age and/or rotation may account for tentative evidence that the quiescent radio occurrence rate of L dwarfs may be suppressed compared to M and T/Y dwarfs and phenomenon. Finally, we discuss how we can harness our occurrence rate framework to carefully assess the possible physics that may be contributing to observed occurrence rate trends.

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