arXiv subjects

Eyke Hüllermeier

Publications and source records attributed to Eyke Hüllermeier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Online Continual Learning on Intel Loihi 2 via a Co-designed Spiking Neural Network

Edge AI must adapt to new classes and shifting data within a tight power budget, but online continual learning (learning from each sample before the next arrives) is where conventional processors are least efficient: each small update pays a full dispatch at full power. We present CLP-SNN, a spiking architecture that recasts the Continually Learning Prototypes (CLP) algorithm as event-driven neural dynamics: a self-normalizing local rule replaces CLP's global renormalization, prototype allocation becomes novelty-triggered neurogenesis, and correctness-modulated plasticity becomes reward-gated per-neuron metaplasticity. Deployed on Intel Loihi 2 as the first online continual learner on that chip, rehearsal-free CLP-SNN matches Replay and SLDA on OpenLORIS at 1-shot; at 25-shot, it stays within 0.8 percentage points of Replay and 6.2 points below covariance-based SLDA. Each prediction-and-update step on extracted features completes on-chip in 0.33 ms at 0.05 mJ, 7.3x lower latency and 341x lower energy than Replay on a Jetson Orin Nano.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Pairwise Difference Learning for Classification

Pairwise difference learning (PDL) has recently been introduced as a new meta-learning technique for regression. Instead of learning a mapping from instances to outcomes in the standard way, the key idea is to learn a function that takes two instances as input and predicts the difference between the respective outcomes. Given a function of this kind, predictions for a query instance are derived from every training example and then averaged. This paper extends PDL toward the task of classification and proposes a meta-learning technique for inducing a PDL classifier by solving a suitably defined (binary) classification problem on a paired version of the original training data. We analyze the performance of the PDL classifier in a large-scale empirical study and find that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction performance. Last but not least, we provide an easy-to-use and publicly available implementation of PDL in a Python package.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification in Pairwise Difference Learning for Classification

Instead of learning a mapping from instances to outcomes in the standard way, the key idea of pairwise difference learning (PDL) is to learn a function that takes two instances as input and predicts the difference between the respective outcomes. Given a function of this kind, predictions for a query instance are derived from every training example and then averaged. We propose a version of PDL for the task of classification and propose a suitable meta-learning technique for this purpose. Moreover, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification, i.e., of representing and quantifying the uncertainty of a PDL classifier's predictions in a faithful manner. Building on recent work on the decomposition of total uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components, we propose different ways of extending corresponding measures to the setting of PDL, depending on how and to what extent uncertainty is represented by the underlying base learner. In large-scale empirical studies, we analyze both the predictive accuracy and the uncertainty awareness of our PDL classifier.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Unification and Optimization of Robust Supervised Learning

Robust learning methods such as distributionally robust optimization, vicinal risk minimization, Mixup, and label smoothing address different sources of uncertainty, including distribution shift, finite-sample effects, and label uncertainty. In practice, however, several such sources may occur simultaneously, and it remains unclear which robust method or combination of methods to use. We introduce a unified framework that organizes a broad class of robustness methods along explicit design axes and makes their relations and combinations explicit within a shared formulation. Within this framework, we analyze how robustness methods interact: some are redundant under particular modeling assumptions, whereas others yield genuinely distinct solution families, and these relationships can change with the model class or loss. We further derive a tractable training procedure that exposes the design choices and their strengths as tunable hyperparameters. Across vision and reward-modeling tasks, the preferred robustness method depends on the task, target metric, and validation data, while suitably selected combinations often outperform the best single method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Optimization of CVaR with Unknown Hyperparameters

We study Bayesian optimization of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of an expensive black-box function that depends on a decision and an environmental variable. Existing no-regret algorithms assume that the correct Gaussian process (GP) kernel and its hyperparameters are known. In practice, however, they must be estimated from limited data, often yielding a misspecified surrogate. This is especially damaging for CVaR because misspecification can distort the estimated tail-risk and thus lead to catastrophic decisions. We propose HE-CV-UCB, the first no-regret algorithm for CVaR Bayesian optimization with unknown GP hyperparameters. Given a finite candidate set containing a well-specified model, HE-CV-UCB adaptively eliminates those inconsistent with the observed data, actively queries where the survivors disagree, and returns a design that is robust across the surviving candidates. We prove that it attains cumulative regret matching the oracle rate of CV-UCB up to a factor depending only on the candidate set's size. Across synthetic benchmarks and three real-world applications, HE-CV-UCB achieves competitive performance and frequently outperforms existing CVaR Bayesian optimization methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Credal Machine Learning for Risk-Averse Decision Making

In many machine learning applications, it is necessary to guard against worst-case scenarios and predictions that could result in substantial losses. In principle, this can be achieved by training risk-averse predictive models that minimize loss functions such as conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), rather than relying on models that perform well on average. In practice, however, the effectiveness of this approach to risk aversion is undermined by the learner's uncertainty regarding the true loss distribution and, consequently, the true CVaR. To achieve reliable risk-aversion, we propose a method in which this (epistemic) uncertainty is represented in terms of credal sets, i.e., sets of probability distributions. More specifically, we develop an efficient yet reliable learner that produces predictions in the form of credal sets and combine it with a novel decision rule that maps each credal set to a single predictive distribution for CVaR minimization. Across classification, under distribution shift, and in reinforcement learning, our approach reliably avoids catastrophic decisions, while sacrificing little in expected performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Challenges and Solutions for Bandits in the Wild: Warm-Started Mixture Bandits for Cross-Cohort Slate Recommendation

Many recommender services repeatedly encounter cold-start cohorts, where new users arrive with little or no interaction history. This creates two challenges: learning user preferences quickly from limited feedback and sustaining useful recommendations when each user has a finite catalog that can become repetitive or depleted over time. We propose CohortMix-TS, a warm-started mixture bandit that learns latent user groups from earlier cohorts and uses available metadata to construct group-informed priors for new users. Starting from these fixed priors, the model personalizes independently as feedback from each user becomes available. Session slates combine Thompson sampling with diversity and inventory-depletion controls. We evaluate CohortMix-TS through simulation, semi-synthetic experiments, and a 25-day randomized in-the-wild deployment with 713 registered participants in a Campus Games quiz application. Our evaluations show that cross-cohort transfer improves early recommendation quality and user-level regret, while inventory-aware slate construction helps prevent premature exhaustion of preferred items. In the field deployment, treatment users also showed a larger early-to-late change in correctness than users receiving random recommendations. Together, these results show how warm-start transfer and inventory-aware recommendations can support personalization for short-lived, repeatedly cold-starting cohorts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

From ASR to ASP: Evaluating Prompt Attack Vulnerabilities Against Open-Source LLMs

Recent studies demonstrate that Large Language Models (LLMs) are vulnerable to attacks that generate harmful or sensitive outputs. As open-source LLMs are increasingly adopted in high-impact applications such as finance, law, and healthcare, systematically investigating their security risks is becoming increasingly important towards a trustworthy LLM era. This paper comprehensively studies effective prompt injection attacks against 14 widely used open-source and three closed-source LLMs on five attack benchmarks. Moreover, existing evaluation metrics mostly only consider the attack success rate, overlooking uncertainty in model responses. Our proposed Attack Success Probability (ASP) additionally captures uncertain behaviors for evaluation, where the model may initially refuse a harmful request but subsequently provide harmful guidance or vice versa, reflecting inconsistency and ambiguity in attack feasibility. By systematically analyzing the effectiveness of prompt injection attacks, we propose a straightforward and effective hypnotism attack; results show that this attack causes aligned language models, including StableLM2, Mistral, Openchat, and Vicuna, to generate objectionable behaviors, achieving around 90% ASP. We also find that moderately well-known LLMs exhibit higher vulnerability to prompt injection attacks, highlighting the need to raise public awareness and prioritize efficient mitigation strategies.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Linear-LLM-SCM: Benchmarking LLMs for Coefficient Elicitation in Linear-Gaussian Causal Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in identifying qualitative causal relations, but their ability to perform quantitative causal reasoning---estimating effect sizes that parametrize functional relationships---remains underexplored in continuous domains. We introduce Linear-LLM-SCM, a plug-and-play framework for evaluating LLMs on Linear Gaussian structural causal model parametrization when a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is given. The framework decomposes a DAG into local parent-child sets and prompts an LLM to produce a regression-style structural equation per node, which is aggregated and compared against available ground-truth parameters. Our experiments with seven real-world DAGs effect ground truth illustrate limitations of LLMs as quantitative causal parameterizers. Across most models, we observe variability in coefficient estimates and sensitivity to structural perturbations. We open-sourced the framework to further encourage the community to work on studies toward the use of LLM for causal effect elicitation in safety-critical domain, e.g., healthcare.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Boundaries of Automation: A Theory of Persistent Human Participation

The rapid progress of AI has intensified the long-standing pursuit of automation: replacing human participation with algorithms wherever possible. Implicit in this pursuit is the assumption that humans remain in the loop only because current AI systems are not yet sufficiently capable. This paper challenges that assumption. Rather than asking how far automation can extend, we ask where its conceptual limits lie and argue that human participation may persist even with highly capable AI systems for three distinct reasons. Technical or complementarity grounds arise when humans contribute capabilities or perspectives unavailable to AI. Normative or developmental grounds arise when participation itself is valuable for human agency or learning. Most importantly, emergence grounds arise from target emergence: in some activities, the target is not fully specified in advance but instead emerges through the interaction itself. In these cases, human participation is not merely a means of improving execution but is constitutive of the target being produced. Human--AI co-construction, understood as the joint production of outcomes by humans and AI systems, is therefore not simply a temporary response to imperfect AI, but a persistent feature of activities whose objectives emerge through participation. This perspective has important implications for the limits of automation and for the design, evaluation, and ethics of future AI systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learning

Current evaluation of epistemic uncertainty relies on tasks such as out-ofdistribution detection and active learning. However, the Bayes-optimal decision strategies for these tasks do not coincide with the scores commonly used to quantify epistemic uncertainty. Building on the epistemic reject-option framework, we evaluate epistemic uncertainty using its ability to identify regret, the reducible error. Formulating selective prediction as a constrained optimization over coverage, expected risk, and regret, we prove the optimal selector is a thresholded convex combination of the ground-truth aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. This theoretical unification exposes a weakness in recent uncertainty disentanglement literature: we demonstrate that standard correlation metrics between learned components do not necessarily predict their actual operational utility. We instead propose to evaluate the achievable risk, regret, coverage surface of the decomposition as a diagnostic for joint disentanglement and utility. Benchmarking standard methods on datasets with dense human annotations reveals that decision-theoretic rankings can disagree substantially with proxy-task rankings, including pairwise rank inversions between methods that are top-ranked on one criterion and bottom-ranked on other.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty

Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees. In practice, CP is typically applied on top of probabilistic classifiers, which are able to express aleatoric but not epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we consider the question of how to optimally employ CP on top of a more expressive formalism, namely credal sets, which can express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. More specifically, we propose probabilistic Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) and derive a variant that achieves conditional coverage for valid credal sets while remaining minimal in expected size. We then address the more realistic scenario in which the validity of the credal sets is not guaranteed. Assuming access to calibration data with ground-truth distributions over labels, we apply conformal risk control to BPS and derive a PAC-style guarantee: with high probability over the data, the achieved conditional coverage is at least the desired level. We validate our theoretical findings empirically over various datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this work, we provide a formal way of representing uncertainty in continuous space, using a general parametric formulation, allowing for tractable analysis and evaluation of uncertainty measures. Within this framework, we propose a set of axioms that enable rigorous assessment of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty measures. Together, this allows for a theoretical examination of uncertainty measures and their corresponding properties. As a specific example, we compare the widely used entropy- and variance-based measures with respect to established predictive models and analyze their limitations and challenges in uncertainty quantification. Our work provides a principled way to understand and develop uncertainty measures in supervised regression, offering theoretical insights and practical guidelines for reliable uncertainty assessment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification for Regression: A Unified Framework based on kernel scores

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require reliable uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. To address this, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty in multivariate regression based on strictly proper kernel scores. The framework provides a principled recipe for designing new uncertainty measures whose behavior, such as tail sensitivity or out-of-distribution responsiveness, is governed by the choice of the underlying kernel, while also encompassing existing measures under a joint analysis. We prove explicit correspondences between properties of the kernel and behavior of resulting uncertainty measures, yielding concrete design guidelines for practitioners. Extensive experiments across structured regression tasks, including spatial and functional domains, demonstrate effectiveness on downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution detection and active learning, and reveal that different kernel choices lead to distinct trade-offs, offering practitioners guidance for task-specific selection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

OperatorSHAP: Fast and Accurate Shapley Value Estimation for Neural Operators

Understanding model predictions is essential for physical applications, where outputs often inform safety-critical decisions, such as structural load assessment, weather warnings, and clinical diagnosis. Shapley values satisfy many desirable properties as an attribution method, but their computational cost during inference hinders their practical use. Current amortized explainers, such as FastSHAP, are limited to homogeneous inputs, which is problematic for physical applications where data often comes from irregular grids and geometries. We introduce OperatorSHAP, a grid-agnostic attribution method and training procedure that allows us to train FastSHAP-like explainers for neural operators. We establish a theoretical framework for attributions in function space, connecting to Aumann-Shapley values. We further show that OperatorSHAP's explanations are consistent with state-of-the-art discrete Shapley values across resolutions and transfer across grid sizes without retraining.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

Quantifying the evolution of uncertainty is critical to both probabilistic forecasting and data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. In this study, we investigate the applicability of conformal prediction (CP), a recent machine learning (ML) method, to quantify uncertainty in a controlled, idealized setting. We use the one dimensional modified shallow water model, designed to mimic the convective process. CP provides a set of possible outcomes with a chosen confidence level. Here, we compare and evaluate the average empirical coverage, the average interval length, miss low, miss high and average interval score loss (AISL) for three variants of CP, namely a) Standard CP, b) Normalized CP and c) Conformalized Quantile Regression. We further compare these CP-based uncertainty estimates with traditional ensemble-based measures such as standard deviation intervals and ensemble spread. In addition, we investigate the integration of CP-derived uncertainty within the data assimilation cycle through CP perturbations. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each approach, providing insight into the effectiveness of CP to complement common ensemble-based uncertainty quantification in simplified atmospheric models.

cs.LG↗