arXiv subjects

Eyke Hüllermeier

Publications and source records attributed to Eyke Hüllermeier.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Random Forest Calibration

The Random Forest (RF) classifier is often claimed to be relatively well calibrated when compared with other machine learning methods. Moreover, the existing literature suggests that traditional calibration methods, such as isotonic regression, do not substantially enhance the calibration of RF probability estimates unless supplied with extensive calibration data sets, which can represent a significant obstacle in cases of limited data availability. Nevertheless, there seems to be no comprehensive study validating such claims and systematically comparing state-of-the-art calibration methods specifically for RF. To close this gap, we investigate a broad spectrum of calibration methods tailored to or at least applicable to RF, ranging from scaling techniques to more advanced algorithms. Our results based on synthetic as well as real-world data unravel the intricacies of RF probability estimates, scrutinize the impacts of hyper-parameters, compare calibration methods in a systematic way. We show that a well-optimized RF performs as well as or better than leading calibration approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Reliable Part-of-Speech Tagging of Historical Corpora through Set-Valued Prediction

Syntactic annotation of corpora in the form of part-of-speech (POS) tags is a key requirement for both linguistic research and subsequent automated natural language processing (NLP) tasks. This problem is commonly tackled using machine learning methods, i.e., by training a POS tagger on a sufficiently large corpus of labeled data. While the problem of POS tagging can essentially be considered as solved for modern languages, historical corpora turn out to be much more difficult, especially due to the lack of native speakers and sparsity of training data. Moreover, most texts have no sentences as we know them today, nor a common orthography. These irregularities render the task of automated POS tagging more difficult and error-prone. Under these circumstances, instead of forcing the POS tagger to predict and commit to a single tag, it should be enabled to express its uncertainty. In this paper, we consider POS tagging within the framework of set-valued prediction, which allows the POS tagger to express its uncertainty via predicting a set of candidate POS tags instead of guessing a single one. The goal is to guarantee a high confidence that the correct POS tag is included while keeping the number of candidates small. In our experimental study, we find that extending state-of-the-art POS taggers to set-valued prediction yields more precise and robust taggings, especially for unknown words, i.e., words not occurring in the training data.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

shapiq: Shapley Interactions for Machine Learning

Originally rooted in game theory, the Shapley Value (SV) has recently become an important tool in machine learning research. Perhaps most notably, it is used for feature attribution and data valuation in explainable artificial intelligence. Shapley Interactions (SIs) naturally extend the SV and address its limitations by assigning joint contributions to groups of entities, which enhance understanding of black box machine learning models. Due to the exponential complexity of computing SVs and SIs, various methods have been proposed that exploit structural assumptions or yield probabilistic estimates given limited resources. In this work, we introduce shapiq, an open-source Python package that unifies state-of-the-art algorithms to efficiently compute SVs and any-order SIs in an application-agnostic framework. Moreover, it includes a benchmarking suite containing 11 machine learning applications of SIs with pre-computed games and ground-truth values to systematically assess computational performance across domains. For practitioners, shapiq is able to explain and visualize any-order feature interactions in predictions of models, including vision transformers, language models, as well as XGBoost and LightGBM with TreeSHAP-IQ. With shapiq, we extend shap beyond feature attributions and consolidate the application of SVs and SIs in machine learning that facilitates future research. The source code and documentation are available at https://github.com/mmschlk/shapiq.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Is Epistemic Uncertainty Faithfully Represented by Evidential Deep Learning Methods?

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative approaches, such as evidential deep learning methods, have become popular in recent years. The latter group of methods in essence extends empirical risk minimization (ERM) for predicting second-order probability distributions over outcomes, from which measures of epistemic (and aleatoric) uncertainty can be extracted. This paper presents novel theoretical insights of evidential deep learning, highlighting the difficulties in optimizing second-order loss functions and interpreting the resulting epistemic uncertainty measures. With a systematic setup that covers a wide range of approaches for classification, regression and counts, it provides novel insights into issues of identifiability and convergence in second-order loss minimization, and the relative (rather than absolute) nature of epistemic uncertainty measures.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

CUQ-GNN: Committee-based Graph Uncertainty Quantification using Posterior Networks

In this work, we study the influence of domain-specific characteristics when defining a meaningful notion of predictive uncertainty on graph data. Previously, the so-called Graph Posterior Network (GPN) model has been proposed to quantify uncertainty in node classification tasks. Given a graph, it uses Normalizing Flows (NFs) to estimate class densities for each node independently and converts those densities into Dirichlet pseudo-counts, which are then dispersed through the graph using the personalized Page-Rank algorithm. The architecture of GPNs is motivated by a set of three axioms on the properties of its uncertainty estimates. We show that those axioms are not always satisfied in practice and therefore propose the family of Committe-based Uncertainty Quantification Graph Neural Networks (CUQ-GNNs), which combine standard Graph Neural Networks with the NF-based uncertainty estimation of Posterior Networks (PostNets). This approach adapts more flexibly to domain-specific demands on the properties of uncertainty estimates. We compare CUQ-GNN against GPN and other uncertainty quantification approaches on common node classification benchmarks and show that it is effective at producing useful uncertainty estimates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Large-Batch, Iteration-Efficient Neural Bayesian Design Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) provides a powerful framework for optimizing black-box, expensive-to-evaluate functions. It is therefore an attractive tool for engineering design problems, typically involving multiple objectives. Thanks to the rapid advances in fabrication and measurement methods as well as parallel computing infrastructure, querying many design problems can be heavily parallelized. This class of problems challenges BO with an unprecedented setup where it has to deal with very large batches, shifting its focus from sample efficiency to iteration efficiency. We present a novel Bayesian optimization framework specifically tailored to address these limitations. Our key contribution is a highly scalable, sample-based acquisition function that performs a non-dominated sorting of not only the objectives but also their associated uncertainty. We show that our acquisition function in combination with different Bayesian neural network surrogates is effective in data-intensive environments with a minimal number of iterations. We demonstrate the superiority of our method by comparing it with state-of-the-art multi-objective optimizations. We perform our evaluation on two real-world problems -- airfoil design and 3D printing -- showcasing the applicability and efficiency of our approach. Our code is available at: https://github.com/an-on-ym-ous/lbn_mobo

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Scoring Lists for Interpretable Machine Learning

A scoring system is a simple decision model that checks a set of features, adds a certain number of points to a total score for each feature that is satisfied, and finally makes a decision by comparing the total score to a threshold. Scoring systems have a long history of active use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare and justice, where they provide guidance for making objective and accurate decisions. Given their genuine interpretability, the idea of learning scoring systems from data is obviously appealing from the perspective of explainable AI. In this paper, we propose a practically motivated extension of scoring systems called probabilistic scoring lists (PSL), as well as a method for learning PSLs from data. Instead of making a deterministic decision, a PSL represents uncertainty in the form of probability distributions, or, more generally, probability intervals. Moreover, in the spirit of decision lists, a PSL evaluates features one by one and stops as soon as a decision can be made with enough confidence. To evaluate our approach, we conduct a case study in the medical domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

KernelSHAP-IQ: Weighted Least-Square Optimization for Shapley Interactions

The Shapley value (SV) is a prevalent approach of allocating credit to machine learning (ML) entities to understand black box ML models. Enriching such interpretations with higher-order interactions is inevitable for complex systems, where the Shapley Interaction Index (SII) is a direct axiomatic extension of the SV. While it is well-known that the SV yields an optimal approximation of any game via a weighted least square (WLS) objective, an extension of this result to SII has been a long-standing open problem, which even led to the proposal of an alternative index. In this work, we characterize higher-order SII as a solution to a WLS problem, which constructs an optimal approximation via SII and $k$-Shapley values ($k$-SII). We prove this representation for the SV and pairwise SII and give empirically validated conjectures for higher orders. As a result, we propose KernelSHAP-IQ, a direct extension of KernelSHAP for SII, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for feature interactions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

ALPBench: A Benchmark for Active Learning Pipelines on Tabular Data

In settings where only a budgeted amount of labeled data can be afforded, active learning seeks to devise query strategies for selecting the most informative data points to be labeled, aiming to enhance learning algorithms' efficiency and performance. Numerous such query strategies have been proposed and compared in the active learning literature. However, the community still lacks standardized benchmarks for comparing the performance of different query strategies. This particularly holds for the combination of query strategies with different learning algorithms into active learning pipelines and examining the impact of the learning algorithm choice. To close this gap, we propose ALPBench, which facilitates the specification, execution, and performance monitoring of active learning pipelines. It has built-in measures to ensure evaluations are done reproducibly, saving exact dataset splits and hyperparameter settings of used algorithms. In total, ALPBench consists of 86 real-world tabular classification datasets and 5 active learning settings, yielding 430 active learning problems. To demonstrate its usefulness and broad compatibility with various learning algorithms and query strategies, we conduct an exemplary study evaluating 9 query strategies paired with 8 learning algorithms in 2 different settings. We provide ALPBench here: https://github.com/ValentinMargraf/ActiveLearningPipelines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

OCALM: Object-Centric Assessment with Language Models

Properly defining a reward signal to efficiently train a reinforcement learning (RL) agent is a challenging task. Designing balanced objective functions from which a desired behavior can emerge requires expert knowledge, especially for complex environments. Learning rewards from human feedback or using large language models (LLMs) to directly provide rewards are promising alternatives, allowing non-experts to specify goals for the agent. However, black-box reward models make it difficult to debug the reward. In this work, we propose Object-Centric Assessment with Language Models (OCALM) to derive inherently interpretable reward functions for RL agents from natural language task descriptions. OCALM uses the extensive world-knowledge of LLMs while leveraging the object-centric nature common to many environments to derive reward functions focused on relational concepts, providing RL agents with the ability to derive policies from task descriptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Linear Opinion Pooling for Uncertainty Quantification on Graphs

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification for graph-structured data, or, more specifically, the problem to quantify the predictive uncertainty in (semi-supervised) node classification. Key questions in this regard concern the distinction between two different types of uncertainty, aleatoric and epistemic, and how to support uncertainty quantification by leveraging the structural information provided by the graph topology. Challenging assumptions and postulates of state-of-the-art methods, we propose a novel approach that represents (epistemic) uncertainty in terms of mixtures of Dirichlet distributions and refers to the established principle of linear opinion pooling for propagating information between neighbored nodes in the graph. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated in a series of experiments on a variety of graph-structured datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Label-wise Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level, thereby improving cost-sensitive decision-making and helping understand the sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, it allows to define total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty on the basis of non-categorical measures such as variance, going beyond common entropy-based measures. In particular, variance-based measures address some of the limitations associated with established methods that have recently been discussed in the literature. We show that our proposed measures adhere to a number of desirable properties. Through empirical evaluation on a variety of benchmark data sets -- including applications in the medical domain where accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial -- we establish the effectiveness of label-wise uncertainty quantification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Position: Why We Must Rethink Empirical Research in Machine Learning

We warn against a common but incomplete understanding of empirical research in machine learning that leads to non-replicable results, makes findings unreliable, and threatens to undermine progress in the field. To overcome this alarming situation, we call for more awareness of the plurality of ways of gaining knowledge experimentally but also of some epistemic limitations. In particular, we argue most current empirical machine learning research is fashioned as confirmatory research while it should rather be considered exploratory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty with Proper Scoring Rules

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty based on proper scoring rules, which are loss functions with the meaningful property that they incentivize the learner to predict ground-truth (conditional) probabilities. We assume two common representations of (epistemic) uncertainty, namely, in terms of a credal set, i.e. a set of probability distributions, or a second-order distribution, i.e., a distribution over probability distributions. Our framework establishes a natural bridge between these representations. We provide a formal justification of our approach and introduce new measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty as concrete instantiations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Continual Learning: Applications and the Road Forward

Continual learning is a subfield of machine learning, which aims to allow machine learning models to continuously learn on new data, by accumulating knowledge without forgetting what was learned in the past. In this work, we take a step back, and ask: "Why should one care about continual learning in the first place?". We set the stage by examining recent continual learning papers published at four major machine learning conferences, and show that memory-constrained settings dominate the field. Then, we discuss five open problems in machine learning, and even though they might seem unrelated to continual learning at first sight, we show that continual learning will inevitably be part of their solution. These problems are model editing, personalization and specialization, on-device learning, faster (re-)training and reinforcement learning. Finally, by comparing the desiderata from these unsolved problems and the current assumptions in continual learning, we highlight and discuss four future directions for continual learning research. We hope that this work offers an interesting perspective on the future of continual learning, while displaying its potential value and the paths we have to pursue in order to make it successful. This work is the result of the many discussions the authors had at the Dagstuhl seminar on Deep Continual Learning, in March 2023.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Explaining Bayesian Optimization by Shapley Values Facilitates Human-AI Collaboration

Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian processes (GP) has become an indispensable algorithm for black box optimization problems. Not without a dash of irony, BO is often considered a black box itself, lacking ways to provide reasons as to why certain parameters are proposed to be evaluated. This is particularly relevant in human-in-the-loop applications of BO, such as in robotics. We address this issue by proposing ShapleyBO, a framework for interpreting BO's proposals by game-theoretic Shapley values.They quantify each parameter's contribution to BO's acquisition function. Exploiting the linearity of Shapley values, we are further able to identify how strongly each parameter drives BO's exploration and exploitation for additive acquisition functions like the confidence bound. We also show that ShapleyBO can disentangle the contributions to exploration into those that explore aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, our method gives rise to a ShapleyBO-assisted human machine interface (HMI), allowing users to interfere with BO in case proposals do not align with human reasoning. We demonstrate this HMI's benefits for the use case of personalizing wearable robotic devices (assistive back exosuits) by human-in-the-loop BO. Results suggest human-BO teams with access to ShapleyBO can achieve lower regret than teams without.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

SVARM-IQ: Efficient Approximation of Any-order Shapley Interactions through Stratification

Addressing the limitations of individual attribution scores via the Shapley value (SV), the field of explainable AI (XAI) has recently explored intricate interactions of features or data points. In particular, extensions of the SV, such as the Shapley Interaction Index (SII), have been proposed as a measure to still benefit from the axiomatic basis of the SV. However, similar to the SV, their exact computation remains computationally prohibitive. Hence, we propose with SVARM-IQ a sampling-based approach to efficiently approximate Shapley-based interaction indices of any order. SVARM-IQ can be applied to a broad class of interaction indices, including the SII, by leveraging a novel stratified representation. We provide non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees on its approximation quality and empirically demonstrate that SVARM-IQ achieves state-of-the-art estimation results in practical XAI scenarios on different model classes and application domains.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Conformalized Credal Set Predictors

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty representation, in particular due to their ability to represent both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a prediction. However, the design of methods for learning credal set predictors remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we make use of conformal prediction for this purpose. More specifically, we propose a method for predicting credal sets in the classification task, given training data labeled by probability distributions. Since our method inherits the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction, our conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability (without any assumptions on model or distribution). We demonstrate the applicability of our method to natural language inference, a highly ambiguous natural language task where it is common to obtain multiple annotations per example.

stat.ML↗