arXiv subjects

Félix Laplante

Publications and source records attributed to Félix Laplante.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Contrast-Free ICA and Causal Inference via Wasserstein Distances to the Gaussian

We study the squared $2$-Wasserstein distance to the standard Gaussian as a non-Gaussianity criterion and use it for linear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and causal discovery in Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiNGAM). Unlike commonly used parametric contrasts and approximations of information-theoretic quantities, this criterion requires no distributional regularity beyond finite second moments, involves neither approximation nor tuning parameters, and can be computed exactly and efficiently from empirical order statistics. Our analysis relies on a strict subadditivity property of the $2$-Wasserstein distance to the Gaussian. At the population level, we prove exact identification of the ICA unmixing matrix, up to signed permutation, and give an analogous characterization of causal orders through sequential least-squares residuals. We then define empirical plug-in estimators and prove distribution-free uniform convergence under finite-moment assumptions, before detailing three practical solvers: a Picard-style orthogonal optimizer for ICA, an exhaustive dynamic program for causal order search, and a greedy order search variant. Empirically, we demonstrate competitive performance for both tasks and provide open-source implementations for source separation and causal discovery.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Post-Processing Conformal Prediction Approach for Conditional Coverage via Pivotal Scores

While Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, guaranteeing conditional coverage remains a central challenge. Although finite-sample, distribution-free conditional validity is known to be impossible without structural assumptions, we show that for i.i.d. data, it is fundamentally equivalent to constructing a nonconformity score whose distribution is independent of the features. This theoretical characterization motivates PIT-CP, a new post-processing correction that maps any base nonconformity score to an approximately invariant one while preserving its geometry, interpretability, and marginal coverage. This perspective is particularly appealing in practice, since it may be neither economical nor time-effective to retrain a full generative model when a strong prediction-driven model already provides highly accurate point estimates. Our procedure reduces the problem to one-dimensional conditional density estimation on the induced score, rather than full conditional density estimation on the original outcome space. We show how to estimate this transform in practice and derive bounds on the conditional coverage gap, alongside volumetric and symmetric-difference bounds. We present known minimax-optimal conditional estimation techniques while also motivating the use of modern conditional density estimators, including Mixture Density Networks and Conditional Normalizing Flows. Finally, we empirically demonstrate on various datasets that our PIT-CP procedure matches or outperforms many state-of-the-art conformal prediction strategies with minimal effort and computational cost.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A General Framework for Joint Multi-State Models

Conventional joint modeling approaches generally characterize the relationship between longitudinal biomarkers and discrete event occurrences within terminal, recurring or competing risk settings, thereby offering a limited representation of complex, multi-state trajectories. We propose a general multi-state joint modeling framework that unifies longitudinal biomarker dynamics with multi-state time-to-event processes defined on arbitrary directed graphs. The proposed framework also accomodates nonlinear longitudinal submodels and scalable inference via stochastic gradient descent. This formulation encompasses both Markovian and semi-Markovian transition structures, allowing recurrent cycles and terminal absorptions to be naturally represented. The longitudinal and event processes are linked through shared latent structures within nonlinear mixed-effects models, extending classical joint modeling formulations. We derive the complete likelihood, model selection criteria, and develop scalable inference procedures based on stochastic gradient descent to enable high-dimensional and large-scale applications. In addition, we formulate a dynamic prediction framework that provides individualized state-transition probabilities and personalized risk assessments along complex event trajectories. Through simulation and application to the PAQUID cohort, we demonstrate accurate parameter recovery and individualized prediction.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Spectral Bridges

In this paper, Spectral Bridges, a novel clustering algorithm, is introduced. This algorithm builds upon the traditional k-means and spectral clustering frameworks by subdividing data into small Voronoï regions, which are subsequently merged according to a connectivity measure. Drawing inspiration from Support Vector Machine's margin concept, a non-parametric clustering approach is proposed, building an affinity margin between each pair of Voronoï regions. This approach is characterized by minimal hyperparameters and delineation of intricate, non-convex cluster structures. The numerical experiments underscore Spectral Bridges as a fast, robust, and versatile tool for sophisticated clustering tasks spanning diverse domains. Its efficacy extends to large-scale scenarios encompassing both real-world and synthetic datasets. The Spectral Bridge algorithm is implemented both in Python ( ) and R ).

stat.AP↗