arXiv subjects

F. Baltazar-Larios

Publications and source records attributed to F. Baltazar-Larios.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

A novel method and comparison of methods for constructing Markov bridges

In this study, we address the central issue of statistical inference for Markov jump processes using discrete time observations. The primary problem at hand is to accurately estimate the infinitesimal generator of a Markov jump process, a critical task in various applications. To tackle this problem, we begin by reviewing established methods for generating sample paths from a Markov jump process conditioned to endpoints, known as Markov bridges. Additionally, we introduce a novel algorithm grounded in the concept of time-reversal, which serves as our main contribution. Our proposed method is then employed to estimate the infinitesimal generator of a Markov jump process. To achieve this, we use a combination of Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and the Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The results obtained from our approach demonstrate its effectiveness in providing accurate parameter estimates. To assess the efficacy of our proposed method, we conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis with existing techniques (Bisection, Uniformization, Direct, Rejection, and Modified Rejection), taking into consideration both speed and accuracy. Notably, our method stands out as the fastest among the alternatives while maintaining high levels of precision.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Parameter estimation and model selection for stochastic differential equations for biological growth

In this paper, we consider stochastic versions of three classical growth models given by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Indeed we use stochastic versions of Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic differential equations as models. We assume that each stochastic differential equation (SDE) has some crucial parameters in the drift to be estimated and we use the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) to estimate them. For estimating the diffusion parameter, we use the MLE for two cases and the quadratic variation of the data for one of the SDEs. We apply the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to choose the best model for the simulated data. We consider that the AIC is a function of the drift parameter. We present a simulation study to validate our selection method. The proposed methodology could be applied to datasets with continuous and discrete observations, but also with highly sparse data. Indeed, we can use this method even in the extreme case where we have observed only one point for each path, under the condition that we observed a sufficient number of trajectories. For the last two cases, the data can be viewed as incomplete observations of a model with a tractable likelihood function; then, we propose a version of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate these parameters. This type of datasets typically appears in fishery, for instance.

stat.AP↗