arXiv subjects

F. LeRon Shults

Publications and source records attributed to F. LeRon Shults.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Multi-Level Agent-Based Architecture for Climate Governance Integrating Cognitive and Institutional Dynamics

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Language Predicts Identity Fusion Across Cultures and Reveals Divergent Pathways to Violence

In light of increasing polarization and political violence, understanding the psychological roots of extremism is increasingly important. Prior research shows that identity fusion predicts willingness to engage in extreme acts. We evaluate the Cognitive Linguistic Identity Fusion Score, a method that uses cognitive linguistic patterns, LLMs, and implicit metaphor to measure fusion from language. Across datasets from the United Kingdom and Singapore, this approach outperforms existing methods in predicting validated fusion scores. Applied to extremist manifestos, two distinct high-fusion pathways to violence emerge: ideologues tend to frame themselves in terms of group, forming kinship bonds; whereas grievance-driven individuals frame the group in terms of their personal identity. These results refine theories of identity fusion and provide a scalable tool aiding fusion research and extremism detection.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Towards an ABM on Proactive Community Adaptation for Climate Change

We present an agent-based model (ABM) simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in an urban context. The model is applied to Bergen, Norway, represented as a complex socio-ecological system. It integrates multiple agent types: municipal government (urban planners and political actors), civil society (individual citizens), environmental NGOs and activists, and media. Agents interact during urban planning processes - particularly the evaluation and approval of new development proposals. Urban planners provide technical assessments, while politicians (organized by party) make final decisions to approve, modify, or reject projects. Environmental NGOs, activist groups, and the media shape public perception and influence policymakers through campaigns, lobbying, protests, and news coverage. Individual citizens decide whether to engage in collective action based on personal values and social influences. The model captures the resulting decision-making ecosystem and reveals feedback loops and leverage points that determine climate-adaptive outcomes. By analyzing these dynamics, we identify critical intervention points where targeted policy measures can facilitate systemic transformation toward more climate-resilient urban development.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Is radicalization reinforced by social media censorship?

Radicalized beliefs, such as those tied to QAnon, Russiagate, and other political conspiracy theories, can lead some individuals and groups to engage in violent behavior, as evidenced in recent months. Understanding the mechanisms by which such beliefs are accepted, spread, and intensified is critical for any attempt to mitigate radicalization and avoid increased political polarization. This article presents and agent-based model of a social media network that enables investigation of the effects of censorship on the amount of dissenting information to which agents become exposed and the certainty of their radicalized views. The model explores two forms of censorship: 1) decentralized censorship-in which individuals can choose to break an online social network tie (unfriend or unfollow) with another individual who transmits conflicting beliefs and 2) centralized censorship-in which a single authority can ban an individual from the social media network for spreading a certain type of belief. This model suggests that both forms of censorship increase certainty in radicalized views by decreasing the amount of dissent to which an agent is exposed, but centralized "banning" of individuals has the strongest effect on radicalization.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

The Moral Foundations of Left-Wing Authoritarianism: On the Character, Cohesion, and Clout of Tribal Equalitarian Discourse

Left-wing authoritarianism remains far less understood than right-wing authoritarianism. We contribute to the literature on the former, which typically relies on surveys, using a new social media analytics approach. We use a list of 60 terms to provide an exploratory sketch of the outlines of a political ideology (tribal equalitarianism) with origins in 19th and 20th century social philosophy. We then use analyses of the English Corpus of Google Books (over 8 million books) and scraped unique tweets from Twitter (n = 202,852) to conduct a series of investigations to discern the extent to which this ideology is cohesive amongst the public, reveals signatures of authoritarianism and has been growing in popularity. Though exploratory, our results provide some evidence of left-wing authoritarianism in two forms (1) a uniquely conservative moral signature amongst ostensible liberals using measures from Moral Foundations Theory and (2) a substantial prevalence of anger, relative to anxiety or sadness. In general, results indicate that this worldview is growing in popularity, is increasingly cohesive, and shows signatures of authoritarianism.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analyses of Religiosity. A Four-Factor Conceptual Model

We describe an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Cumulation (1991-1998-2008) data set, to identify the factors of individual religiosity and their interrelations in quantitative terms. The exploratory factor analysis was performed using data from the first two waves (1991 and 1998), and led to the identification of four strongly correlated and reliable factors which we labeled Religious formation, Supernatural beliefs, Belief in God, and Religious practice. The confirmatory factor analysis was run using data from 2008, and led to the confirmation of this four-factor structure with very good fit measures. We also ran a set of structural equation models in an attempt to determine the causality links between these four factors. It was found that for the models which provide the best fit Belief in God does not cause Supernatural beliefs, Religious practice can cause Belief in God and that there are multiple paths leading to Belief in God, most of which include Religious formation as a source. The exploratory factor analysis also led to the identification of other factors related to traditional values, confidence in institutions and influence of religious leaders on politics, but these were found to have lower reliability or insufficient number of items to meet the acceptance criteria, and thus were not included in the confirmatory factor analysis and the investigation of causal links. The results obtained in this work have important material implications for the conceptualization of "religiosity," and important methodological implications for the scientific study of religion.

stat.AP↗