Fabien Souillé | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Bayesian inference of numerical modeling-based morphodynamics: Application to a dam-break over a mobile bed experiment

Numerical modeling of morphodynamics presents significant challenges in engineering due to uncertainties arising from inaccurate inputs, model errors, and limited computing resources. Accurate results are essential for optimizing strategies and reducing costs. This paper presents a step-by-step Bayesian methodology to conduct an uncertainty analysis of 2D numerical modeling-based morphodynamics, exemplified by a dam-break over a sand bed experiment. Initially, uncertainties from prior knowledge are propagated through the dynamical model using the Monte Carlo technique. This approach estimates the relative influence of each input parameter on results, identifying the most relevant parameters and observations for Bayesian inference and creating a numerical database for emulator construction. Given the computationally intensive simulations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, a neural network emulator is used to approximate the complex 2D numerical model efficiently. Subsequently, a Bayesian framework is employed to characterize input parameter uncertainty variability and produce probability-based predictions.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2018

Numerical approximation of the 3d hydrostatic Navier-Stokes system with free surface

In this paper we propose a stable and robust strategy to approximate the 3d incompressible hydrostatic Euler and Navier-Stokes systems with free surface. Compared to shallow water approximation of the Navier-Stokes system, the idea is to use a Galerkin type approximation of the velocity field with piecewise constant basis functions in order to obtain an accurate description of the vertical profile of the horizontal velocity. Such a strategy has several advantages. It allows - to rewrite the Navier-Stokes equations under the form of a system of conservation lawswith source terms, - the easy handling of the free surface, which does not require moving meshes, - the possibility to take advantage of robust and accurate numerical techniques developed in extensive amount for Shallow Water type systems. Compared to previous works of some of the authors, the three dimensional case is studied in this paper. We show that the model admits a kinetic interpretation including the vertical exchanges terms, and we use this result to formulate a robust finite volume scheme for its numerical approximation. All the aspects of the discrete scheme (fluxes, boundary conditions,. . . ) are completely described and the stability properties of the proposed numerical scheme (well-balancing, positivity of the water depth,. . . ) are discussed. We validate the model and the discrete scheme with some numerical academic examples (3d non stationary analytical solutions) and illustratethe capability of the discrete model to reproduce realistic tsunami waves.

math.NA↗