arXiv subjects

Fabio Ashtar Telarico

Publications and source records attributed to Fabio Ashtar Telarico.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Scaling up archival text analysis with the blockmodeling of n-gram networks -- A case study of Bulgaria's representation in the Osservatore Romano (January-May 1877)

This paper seeks to bridge the gap between archival text analysis and network analysis by applying network clustering methods to analyze the coverage of Bulgaria in 123 issues of the newspaper Osservatore Romano published between January and May 1877. Utilizing optical character recognition and generalized homogeneity blockmodeling, the study constructs networks of relevant keywords. Those including the sets Bulgaria and Russia are rather isomorphic and they largely overlap with those for Germany, Britain, and War. In structural terms, the blockmodel of the two networks exhibits a clear core-semiperiphery-periphery structure that reflects relations between concepts in the newpaper's coverage. The newspaper's lexical choices effectively delegitimised the Bulgarian national revival, highlighting the influence of the Holy See on the newspaper's editorial line.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2023

Are sanctions for losers? A network study of trade sanctions

Studies built on dependency and world-system theory using network approaches have shown that international trade is structured into clusters of 'core' and 'peripheral' countries performing distinct functions. However, few have used these methods to investigate how sanctions affect the position of the countries involved in the capitalist world-economy. Yet, this topic has acquired pressing relevance due to the emergence of economic warfare as a key geopolitical weapon since the 1950s. And even more so in light of the preeminent role that sanctions have played in the US and their allies' response to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Applying several clustering techniques designed for complex and temporal networks, this paper shows that a shift in the pattern of commerce away from sanctioning countries and towards neutral or friendly ones. Additionally, there are suggestions that these shifts may lead to the creation of an alternative 'core' that interacts with the world-economy's periphery bypassing traditional 'core' countries such as EU member States and the US.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models

In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria's went from having a rather radically 'different' tax system to adopting flat-rate taxation with marginal tax rates that fell from figures as high as 40% to 10% for both the corporate-income tax and the personal-income tax. Crucially, the econometric forecasting models in use at the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance hinted at an increase in tax revenue compatible with the so-called 'Laffer curve'. Similarly, many economists held the view that revenues would have increased. However, reality fell short of those expectations based on forecasting models and rooted in mainstream economic theory. Thus, this paper asks whether there are betterperforming forecasting models for personal-and corporate-income tax-revenues in Bulgaria that are readily implementable and overperform the ones currently in use. After articulating a constructive critique of the current forecasting models, the paper offers readily implementable, transparent alternatives and proves their superiority.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy

Tax analysis and forecasting of revenues are of paramount importance to ensure fiscal policy's viability and sustainability. However, the measures taken to contain the spread of the recent pandemic pose an unprecedented challenge to established models and approaches. This paper proposes a model to forecast tax revenues in Bulgaria for the fiscal years 2020-2022 built in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's recommendations on a dataset covering the period between 1995 and 2019. The study further discusses the actual trustworthiness of official Bulgarian forecasts, contrasting those figures with the model previously estimated. This study's quantitative results both confirm the pandemic's assumed negative impact on tax revenues and prove that econometrics can be tweaked to produce consistent revenue forecasts even in the relatively-unexplored case of Bulgaria offering new insights to policymakers and advocates.

econ.GN↗