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Fabio Bellini

Publications and source records attributed to Fabio Bellini.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

Lambda-quantiles under the microscope

We study Lambda-quantiles, a generalisation of classical quantiles in which the constant probability level $\lambda \in [0,1]$ is replaced by a functional parameter $\Lambda \colon \mathbb{R} \to [0,1]$. We consider the general case of non-monotone $\Lambda$, which arises naturally if closure properties of the class of corresponding Lambda-quantiles with respect to inf-aggregation or with respect to mixtures are required. As preliminary results, we characterise finiteness, constancy, and what we call the attainment property known from classical quantiles. We then consider the problem of reconstructing $\Lambda$ from the values of $\Lambda$-quantiles on a suitable family of simple distributions, showing its identifiability under mild assumptions. Next, we substantially refine several results obtained in the literature on weak upper and lower semicontinuity and on the property of convexity of the level sets with respect to mixtures, obtaining in both cases almost complete characterisations without any monotonicity assumption. We then move to the case in which $\Lambda$ has bounded variation, which enables us to prove a mixture representation result: any such $\Lambda$-quantile can be rewritten as a Lambda-quantile with an increasing functional parameter, evaluated at a mixture of the original distribution with a fixed reference distribution at a fixed weight, thus reducing the complexity of the parameter from bounded variation to monotone. Finally, we introduce and study the notion of the ordinal covariance group of a risk measure, showing that in the case of a $\Lambda$-quantile it coincides with the compositional invariance group of $\Lambda$ and with a certain group of measure-preserving transformations of the signed measure associated with $\Lambda$.

math.ST

Lambda Expected Shortfall

The Lambda Value-at-Risk (Lambda-VaR) is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which has been actively studied in quantitative finance. Over the past two decades, the Expected Shortfall (ES) has become one of the most important risk measures alongside VaR because of its various desirable properties in the practice of optimization, risk management, and financial regulation. Analogously to the intimate relation between ES and VaR, we introduce the Lambda Expected Shortfall (Lambda-ES), as a generalization of ES and a counterpart to Lambda-VaR. Our definition of Lambda-ES has an explicit formula and many convenient properties, and we show that it is the smallest quasi-convex and law-invariant risk measure dominating Lambda-VaR under mild assumptions. We examine further properties of Lambda-ES, its dual representation, and related optimization problems.

q-fin.MF

Disappointment Aversion and Expectiles

This paper recasts Gul's (1991) theory of disappointment aversion in a Savage framework, with general outcomes, new explicit axioms of disappointment aversion, and novel explicit representations. These permit broader applications of the theory and a better understanding of its decision-theoretic foundations. Our results exploit an unexpected connection between Gul's model and the econometric framework of Newey and Powell (1987) of asymmetric least squares estimation. Our main axiomatization result shows that a preference relation over Savage acts is probabilistically sophisticated, invariant biseparable, and disappointment hedging if and only if it admits a representation \emph{\`a la} Gul, and hence all explicit equivalent representations that we present in the paper. We also derive a neurocomputational foundation of the theory based on recent neuroscience findings and a novel reinforcement learning result.

econ.TH

Generalized Orlicz premia

We introduce a generalized class of Orlicz premia based on possibly nonconvex loss functions, extending the classical framework of Haezendonck and Goovaerts (1982). Without the usual convexity requirement on the loss function $\Phi$, the Orlicz framework naturally encompasses quantiles, expectiles and $L^p$-quantiles while preserving the fundamental properties of Orlicz premia. We show that within this framework cash-additivity axiomatizes $L^p$-quantiles, generalizing the classical `collapse-to-the-mean' result for cash-additive convex Orlicz premia into a `collapse-to-$L^p$-quantiles' result, with expectiles as a special case. We focus on two natural classes of nonconvex loss functions: concave-convex Orlicz functions, which mimic the idea of S-shaped value functions in prospect theory, and GA-convex Orlicz functions, which can be described in terms of comparative convexity with respect to a logarithmic reference, and for which the corresponding Orlicz premium is geometrically convex. Finally, we show that a suitable subclass of generalized Orlicz premia coincides with the class of law-invariant, monotone, positive, positively homogeneous, normalized functionals that are weakly lower semicontinuous, continuous from above, and whose level sets are convex with respect to mixtures (the so-called CxLS property).

q-fin.RM

Disappointment concordance and duet expectiles

We introduce an axiom of disappointment-concordance (disco) aversion for a preference relation over acts in an Anscombe-Aumann setting. This axiom means that the decision maker, facing the sum of two acts, dislikes the situation where both acts realize simultaneously as disappointments. Our main result is that, under strict monotonicity and continuity, the axiom of disco aversion characterizes preference relations represented by a new class of functionals belonging to the Gilboa-Schmeidler family, which we call the duet expectiled utilities. When the outcome space is the real line, a duet expectiled utility becomes a duet expectile, which involves two endogenous probability measures. It further becomes a usual expectile, ,a statistical quantity popular in regression and risk measures, when these two probability measures coincide. We discuss properties of duet expectiles and connections with fundamental concepts including probabilistic sophistication, risk aversion, and uncertainty aversion.

econ.TH

On Geometrically Convex Risk Measures

Geometrically convex functions constitute an interesting class of functions obtained by replacing the arithmetic mean with the geometric mean in the definition of convexity. As recently suggested, geometric convexity may be a sensible property for financial risk measures ([7,13,4]). We introduce a notion of GG-convex conjugate, parallel to the classical notion of convex conjugate introduced by Fenchel, and we discuss its properties. We show how GG-convex conjugation can be axiomatized in the spirit of the notion of general duality transforms introduced in [2,3]. We then move to the study of GG-convex risk measures, which are defined as GG-convex functionals defined on suitable spaces of random variables. We derive a general dual representation that extends analogous expressions presented in [4] under the additional assumptions of monotonicity and positive homogeneity. As a prominent example, we study the family of Orlicz risk measures. Finally, we introduce multiplicative versions of the convex and of the increasing convex order and discuss related consistency properties of law-invariant GG-convex risk measures.

q-fin.RM

Elicitability of Return Risk Measures

Informally, a risk measure is said to be elicitable if there exists a suitable scoring function such that minimizing its expected value recovers the risk measure. In this paper, we analyze the elicitability properties of the class of return risk measures (i.e., normalized, monotone and positively homogeneous risk measures). First, we provide dual representation results for convex and geometrically convex return risk measures. Next, we establish new axiomatic characterizations of Orlicz premia (i.e., Luxemburg norms). More specifically, we prove, under different sets of conditions, that Orlicz premia naturally arise as the only elicitable return risk measures. Finally, we provide a general family of strictly consistent scoring functions for Orlicz premia, a myriad of specific examples and a mixture representation suitable for constructing Murphy diagrams.

q-fin.RM

Parametric measures of variability induced by risk measures

We present a general framework for a comparative theory of variability measures, with a particular focus on the recently introduced one-parameter families of inter-Expected Shortfall differences and inter-expectile differences, that are explored in detail and compared with the widely known and applied inter-quantile differences. From the mathematical point of view, our main result is a characterization of symmetric and comonotonic variability measures as mixtures of inter-Expected Shortfall differences, under a few additional technical conditions. Further, we study the stochastic orders induced by the pointwise comparison of inter-Expected Shortfall and inter-expectile differences, and discuss their relationship with the dilation order. From the statistical point of view, we establish asymptotic consistency and normality of the natural estimators and provide a rule of the thumb for cross-comparisons. Finally, we study the empirical behaviour of the considered classes of variability measures on the S&P 500 Index under various economic regimes, and explore the comparability of different time series according to the introduced stochastic orders.

q-fin.RM

An axiomatization of $Λ$-quantiles

We give an axiomatic foundation to $Λ$-quantiles, a family of generalized quantiles introduced by Frittelli et al. (2014) under the name of Lambda Value at Risk. Under mild assumptions, we show that these functionals are characterized by a property that we call "locality", that means that any change in the distribution of the probability mass that arises entirely above or below the value of the $Λ$-quantile does not modify its value. We compare with a related axiomatization of the usual quantiles given by Chambers (2009), based on the stronger property of "ordinal covariance", that means that quantiles are covariant with respect to increasing transformations. Further, we present a systematic treatment of the properties of $Λ$-quantiles, refining some of the results of Frittelli et al. (2014) and Burzoni et al. (2017) and showing that in the case of a nonincreasing $Λ$ the properties of $Λ$-quantiles closely resemble those of the usual quantiles.

q-fin.MF

Law-invariant functionals on general spaces of random variables

We establish general versions of a variety of results for quasiconvex, lower-semicontinuous, and law-invariant functionals. Our results extend well-known results from the literature to a large class of spaces of random variables. We sometimes obtain sharper versions, even for the well-studied case of bounded random variables. Our approach builds on two fundamental structural results for law-invariant functionals: the equivalence of law invariance and Schur convexity, i.e., monotonicity with respect to the convex stochastic order, and the fact that a law-invariant functional is fully determined by its behaviour on bounded random variables. We show how to apply these results to provide a unifying perspective on the literature on law-invariant functionals, with special emphasis on quantile-based representations, including Kusuoka representations, dilatation monotonicity, and infimal convolutions.

q-fin.PR

Law-invariant functionals that collapse to the mean

We discuss when law-invariant convex functionals "collapse to the mean". More precisely, we show that, in a large class of spaces of random variables and under mild semicontinuity assumptions, the expectation functional is, up to an affine transformation, the only law-invariant convex functional that is linear along the direction of a nonconstant random variable with nonzero expectation. This extends results obtained in the literature in a bounded setting and under additional assumptions on the functionals. We illustrate the implications of our general results for pricing rules and risk measures.

q-fin.MF

Potentialities of the future technical improvements in the search of rare nuclear decays by bolometers

Bolometers are cryogenic calorimeters which feature excellent energy resolution, low energy threshold, high detection efficiency, flexibility in choice of materials, particle identification capability if operated as hybrid devices. After thirty years of rapid progresses, they represent nowadays a leading technology in several fields: particle and nuclear physics, X-ray astrophysics, cosmology. However, further and substantial developments are required to increase the sensitivity to the levels envisioned by future researches. A review of the challenges to be addressed and potentialities of bolometers in the search for rare nuclear decays is given, with particular emphasis to the neutrinoless double beta decay physics case.

physics.ins-det

Polycrystalline para-terphenyl scintillator adopted in a $β^-$ detecting probe for radio-guided surgery

A radio-guided surgery technique exploiting $β^-$ emitters is under development. It aims at a higher target-to-background activity ratio implying both a smaller radiopharmaceutical activity and the possibility of extending the technique to cases with a large uptake of surrounding healthy organs. Such technique requires a dedicated intraoperative probe detecting $β^-$ radiation. A first prototype has been developed relying on the low density and high light yield of the diphenylbutadiene doped para-therphenyl organic scintillator. The scintillation light produced in a cylindrical crystal, 5 mm in diameter and 3 mm in height, is guided to a photo-multiplier tube by optical fibres. The custom readout electronics is designed to optimize its usage in terms of feedback to the surgeon, portability and remote monitoring of the signal. Tests show that with a radiotracer activity comparable to those administered for diagnostic purposes the developed probe can detect a 0.1 ml cancerous residual of meningioma in a few seconds.

physics.ins-det

An Intraoperative $β^-$ Detecting Probe For Radio-Guided Surgery in Tumour Resection

The development of the $β^-$ based radio-guided surgery aims to extend the technique to those tumours where surgery is the only possible treatment and the assessment of the resection would most profit from the low background around the lesion, as for brain tumours. Feasibility studies on meningioma, glioma, and neuroendocrine tumors already estimated the potentiality of this new treatment. To validate the technique, prototypes of the intraoperative probe required by the technique to detect $β^-$ radiation have been developed. This paper discusses the design details of the device and the tests performed in laboratory. In such tests particular care has to be taken to reproduce the surgical field conditions. The innovative technique to produce specific phantoms and the dedicated testing protocols is described in detail.

physics.med-ph

Towards a Radio-guided Surgery with $β^{-}$ Decays: Uptake of a somatostatin analogue (DOTATOC) in Meningioma and High Grade Glioma

A novel radio guided surgery (RGS) technique for cerebral tumors using $β^{-}$ radiation is being developed. Checking the availability of a radio-tracer that can deliver a $β^{-}$ emitter to the tumor is a fundamental step in the deployment of such technique. This paper reports a study of the uptake of 90Y labeled (DOTATOC) in the meningioma and the high grade glioma (HGG) and a feasibility study of the RGS technique in these cases.

physics.med-ph

Risk measures with the CxLS property

In the present contribution we characterize law determined convex risk measures that have convex level sets at the level of distributions. By relaxing the assumptions in Weber (2006), we show that these risk measures can be identified with a class of generalized shortfall risk measures. As a direct consequence, we are able to extend the results in Ziegel (2014) and Bellini and Bignozzi (2014) on convex elicitable risk measures and confirm that expectiles are the only elicitable coherent risk measures. Further, we provide a simple characterization of robustness for convex risk measures in terms of a weak notion of mixture continuity.

q-fin.RM

Option Pricing in a Dynamic Variance-Gamma Model

We present a discrete time stochastic volatility model in which the conditional distribution of the logreturns is a Variance-Gamma, that is a normal variance-mean mixture with Gamma mixing density. We assume that the Gamma mixing density is time varying and follows an affine Garch model, trying to capture persistence of volatility shocks and also higher order conditional dynamics in a parsimonious way. We select an equivalent martingale measure by means of the conditional Esscher transform as in Buhlmann et al. (1996) and show that this change of measure leads to a similar dynamics of the mixing distribution. The model admits a recursive procedure for the computation of the characteristic function of the terminal logprice, thus allowing semianalytical pricing as in Heston and Nandi (2000). From an empirical point of view, we check the ability of this model to calibrate SPX option data and we compare it with the Heston and Nandi (2000) model and with the Christoffersen, Heston and Jacobs (2006) model, that is based on Inverse Gaussian innovations. Moreover, we provide a detailed comparison with several variants of the Heston and Nandi model that shows the superiority of the Variance-Gamma innovations also from the point of view of historical MLE estimation.

q-fin.PR

Comparison results for Garch processes

We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that are propagated from the innovations to the Garch process itself, and discuss their interpretations. We focus on the convex order and show that in the case of symmetric innovations it is also propagated to the cumulated sums of the Garch process. More generally, we discuss multivariate comparison results related to the multivariate convex and supermodular order. Finally we discuss ordering with respect to the parameters in the Garch (1,1) case. Key words: Garch, Convex Order, Peakedness, Kurtosis, Supermodularity.

q-fin.ST