arXiv subjects

Fabio I. Martinenghi

Publications and source records attributed to Fabio I. Martinenghi.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Pull-Forward and Induced Vaccination Under Time-Limited Mandates: Evidence from a Low-Coercion Mandate

Vaccine mandates featuring a deadline, i.e. time-limited, can raise uptake either by pulling forward vaccinations that would have occurred later or by inducing additional vaccinations that would not have occurred absent the mandate. This paper asks how such mandates change vaccination behaviour, how the overall effect decomposes into the pull-forward and induction components, and which features of the mandate and public-health context drive that composition. Empirically, we study a low-coercion time-limited mandate targeting graduating high-school students in Western Australia and identify its causal effects using regression discontinuity designs based on strict school-age eligibility rules, applied to population-wide administrative records on first-dose COVID-19 vaccinations. We estimate both a static RDD at the deadline and a dynamic RDD that estimates the treatment effect over time. The mandate increased short-run first-dose uptake by 9.3 percentage points (12.7%) among the targeted cohort, but the dynamic evidence shows that this effect is entirely driven by pull-forward behavior: uptake converges in the long run, implying no vaccinations were induced. Students advanced vaccination by up to 80 days. Theoretically, we develop a simple present-bias model of vaccination under deadlines. We use it to interpret the empirical patterns and to derive, among other results, conditions under which time-limited mandates are more likely to pull forward vaccinations rather than inducing them. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating mandates beyond short-run windows and provide a framework for designing and interpreting time-limited vaccination policies. Keywords: mandate; vaccination; incentives; uptake; adolescents; timing; coverage. JEL: I12; I18.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Getting Explicit Instruction Right

There has been substantial public debate about the potentially deleterious effects of the long-run move to ``inquiry-based learning'' in which students are placed at the center of an educational journey and arrive at their own understanding of what is being taught. There have been numerous calls for a return to ``direct'' or ``explicit'' instruction. This paper focuses on identifying the causal effect of correctly implementing explicit instruction on student performance in standardized tests. We utilise a unique setting in Australia\textemdash a country in which all students in grades 3, 5, 7, and 9 undergo annual basic skills tests (``NAPLAN''). We use a synthetic control approach to study the effect of introducing Explicit Instruction in Charlestown South Public School\textemdash a median-performing school\textemdash on Year-3 and Year-5 NAPLAN scores in Reading and Numeracy. Importantly, this is achieved via peer modelling, with Charlestown teaching staff sitting-in during the classes of a high-performing explicit-instruction school. We find that the performance gains are substantial and persistent. JEL: I20, I21. Keywords: Education, Explicit Instruction, Pedagogy.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Conceiving Naturally After IVF: the effect of assisted reproduction on obstetric interventions and child health at birth

A growing share of the world's population is being born via assisted reproductive technology (ART), including in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). However, two concerns persist. First, ART pregnancies correlate with predictors of poor outcomes at birth--and it is unclear whether this relationship is causal. Second, the emotional and financial costs associated with ART-use might exacerbate defensive medical behaviour, where physicians intervene more than necessary to reduce the risk of adverse medical outcomes and litigation. We address the challenge of identifying the pure effect of ART-use on both maternal and infant outcomes at birth by leveraging exogenous variation in the success of ART cycles. We compare the obstetric outcomes for ART-conceived births with those of spontaneously-conceived births after a failed ART treatment. Moreover, we flexibly adjust for key confounders using double machine learning. We do this using clinical registry ART data and administrative maternal and infant data from New South Wales (NSW) between 2009-2017. We find that ART slightly decreases the risk of obstetric interventions, lowering the risk of a caesarean section and increasing the rate of spontaneous labour (+3.5 p.p.). Moreover, we find that ART has a statistically and clinically insignificant effect on infant health outcomes. Keywords: Fertility, Assisted reproduction, IVF, Caesarean Section, Obstetric, Infertility. JEL classification: I10, I12, I19.

econ.GN↗