arXiv subjects

Fabio Nobile

Publications and source records attributed to Fabio Nobile.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Load Forecasting of Distribution Power Systems based on Empirical Copulas

Accurate and reliable electricity load forecasts are becoming increasingly important as the share of intermittent resources in the system increases. Distribution System Operators (DSOs) are called to accurately forecast their production and consumption to place optimal bids in the day-ahead market. Forecasts must account for the volatility of weather-parameters that impacts both the production and consumption of electricity. If DSO-loads are small or lower-granularity forecasts are needed, parametric statistical methods may fail to provide reliable performance since they rely on a priori statistical distributions of the variables to forecast. In this paper, we introduce a Probabilistic Load Forecast (PLF) method based on Empirical Copulas (ECs). The model is datadriven, does not need a priori assumption on parametric distribution for variables, nor the dependence structure (copula). It employs a kernel density estimate of the underlying distribution using beta kernels that have bounded support on the unit hypercube. The method naturally supports variables with widely different distributions, such as weather data (including forecasted ones) and historic electricity consumption, and produces a conditional probability distribution for every time step in the forecast, which allows inferring the quantiles of interest. The proposed non-parametric approach differs significantly from previous forecasting methods based on copulas, which typically uses copulas to model hierarchical dependence. The bandwidth of the beta kernel density estimators is optimized using Integrated Square Error (ISE). We present results from an open dataset and showcase the strength of the model with respect to Quantile Regression (QR) using standard probabilistic evaluation metrics.

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arXiv2024

Dynamical Low-Rank Approximation for Stochastic Differential Equations

In this paper, we set the mathematical foundations of the Dynamical Low-Rank Approximation (DLRA) method for stochastic differential equations (SDEs). DLRA aims at approximating the solution as a linear combination of a small number of basis vectors with random coefficients (low rank format) with the peculiarity that both the basis vectors and the random coefficients vary in time. While the formulation and properties of DLRA are now well understood for random/parametric equations, the same cannot be said for SDEs and this work aims to fill this gap. We start by rigorously formulating a Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) approximation (an instance of DLRA successfully used in applications) for SDEs, which we then generalize to define a parametrization independent DLRA for SDEs. We show local well-posedness of the DO equations and their equivalence with the DLRA formulation. We also characterize the explosion time of the DO solution by a loss of linear independence of the random coefficients defining the solution expansion and give sufficient conditions for global existence.

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arXiv2024

Petrov-Galerkin Dynamical Low Rank Approximation:SUPG stabilisation of advection-dominated problems

We propose a novel framework of generalised Petrov-Galerkin Dynamical Low Rank Approximations (DLR) in the context of random PDEs. It builds on the standard Dynamical Low Rank Approximations in their Dynamically Orthogonal formulation. It allows to seamlessly build-in many standard and well-studied stabilisation techniques that can be framed as either generalised Galerkin methods, or Petrov-Galerkin methods. The framework is subsequently applied to the case of Streamine Upwind/Petrov Galerkin (SUPG) stabilisation of advection-dominated problems with small stochastic perturbations of the transport field. The norm-stability properties of two time discretisations are analysed. Numerical experiments confirm that the stabilising properties of the SUPG method naturally carry over to the DLR framework.

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arXiv2024

Unbiased likelihood estimation of Wright-Fisher diffusion processes

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation strategy for discretely observed Wright-Fisher diffusions. Our approach provides an unbiased estimator of the likelihood function and is based on exact simulation techniques that are of special interest for diffusion processes defined on a bounded domain, where numerical methods typically fail to remain within the required boundaries. We start by building unbiased likelihood estimators for scalar diffusions and later present an extension to the multidimensional case. Consistency results of our proposed estimator are also presented and the performance of our method is illustrated through numerical examples.

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arXiv2024

A multigrid solver for PDE-constrained optimization with uncertain inputs

In this manuscript, we present a collective multigrid algorithm to solve efficiently the large saddle-point systems of equations that typically arise in PDE-constrained optimization under uncertainty, and develop a novel convergence analysis of collective smoothers and collective two-level methods. The multigrid algorithm is based on a collective smoother that at each iteration sweeps over the nodes of the computational mesh, and solves a reduced saddle-point system whose size is proportional to the number $N$ of samples used to discretized the probability space. We show that this reduced system can be solved with optimal $O(N)$ complexity. The multigrid method is tested both as a stationary method and as a preconditioner for GMRES on three problems: a linear-quadratic problem, possibly with a local or a boundary control, for which the multigrid method is used to solve directly the linear optimality system; a nonsmooth problem with box constraints and $L^1$-norm penalization on the control, in which the multigrid scheme is used as an inner solver within a semismooth Newton iteration; a risk-averse problem with the smoothed CVaR risk measure where the multigrid method is called within a preconditioned Newton iteration. In all cases, the multigrid algorithm exhibits excellent performances and robustness with respect to the parameters of interest.

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arXiv2024

A combination technique for optimal control problems constrained by random PDEs

We present a combination technique based on mixed differences of both spatial approximations and quadrature formulae for the stochastic variables to solve efficiently a class of Optimal Control Problems (OCPs) constrained by random partial differential equations. The method requires to solve the OCP for several low-fidelity spatial grids and quadrature formulae for the objective functional. All the computed solutions are then linearly combined to get a final approximation which, under suitable regularity assumptions, preserves the same accuracy of fine tensor product approximations, while drastically reducing the computational cost. The combination technique involves only tensor product quadrature formulae, thus the discretized OCPs preserve the (possible) convexity of the continuous OCP. Hence, the combination technique avoids the inconveniences of Multilevel Monte Carlo and/or sparse grids approaches, but remains suitable for high dimensional problems. The manuscript presents an a-priori procedure to choose the most important mixed differences and an asymptotic complexity analysis, which states that the asymptotic complexity is exclusively determined by the spatial solver. Numerical experiments validate the results.

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arXiv2024

Error estimates for SUPG-stabilised Dynamical Low Rank Approximations

We perform an error analysis of a fully discretised Streamline Upwind Petrov Galerkin Dynamical Low Rank (SUPG-DLR) method for random time-dependent advection-dominated problems. The time integration scheme has a splitting-like nature, allowing for potentially efficient computations of the factors characterising the discretised random field. The method allows to efficiently compute a low-rank approximation of the true solution, while naturally "inbuilding" the SUPG stabilisation. Standard error rates in the L2 and SUPG-norms are recovered. Numerical experiments validate the predicted rates.

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arXiv2023

Gradient-based optimisation of the conditional-value-at-risk using the multi-level Monte Carlo method

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. In particular, we consider the framework of multi-level Monte Carlo for parametric expectations and propose modifications of the MLMC estimator, error estimation procedure, and adaptive MLMC parameter selection to ensure the estimation of the CVaR and sensitivities for a given design with a prescribed accuracy. We then propose combining the MLMC framework with an alternating inexact minimisation-gradient descent algorithm, for which we prove exponential convergence in the optimisation iterations under the assumptions of strong convexity and Lipschitz continuity of the gradient of the objective function. We demonstrate the performance of our approach on two numerical examples of practical relevance, which evidence the same optimal asymptotic cost-tolerance behaviour as standard MLMC methods for fixed design computations of output expectations.

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arXiv2023

Quantifying uncertain system outputs via the multi-level Monte Carlo method -- distribution and robustness measures

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential models by the MLMC method. We follow the approach of (reference), which recasts the estimation of the above quantities to the computation of suitable parametric expectations. In this work, we present novel computable error estimators for the estimation of such quantities, which are then used to optimally tune the MLMC hierarchy in a continuation type adaptive algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our adaptive continuation-MLMC in an array of numerical test cases.

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arXiv2022

Density estimation in RKHS with application to Korobov spaces in high dimensions

A kernel method for estimating a probability density function (pdf) from an i.i.d. sample drawn from such density is presented. Our estimator is a linear combination of kernel functions, the coefficients of which are determined by a linear equation. An error analysis for the mean integrated squared error is established in a general reproducing kernel Hilbert space setting. The theory developed is then applied to estimate pdfs belonging to weighted Korobov spaces, for which a dimension independent convergence rate is established. Under a suitable smoothness assumption, our method attains a rate arbitrarily close to the optimal rate. Numerical results support our theory.

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arXiv2022

Uncertainty Quantification by MLMC and Local Time-stepping For Wave Propagation

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods significantly reduce the computational cost by distributing the sampling across a hierarchy of discretizations and allocating most samples to the coarser grids. For time dependent problems, spatial coarsening typically entails an increased time-step. Geometric constraints, however, may impede uniform coarsening thereby forcing some elements to remain small across all levels. If explicit time-stepping is used, the time-step will then be dictated by the smallest element on each level for numerical stability. Hence, the increasingly stringent CFL condition on the time-step on coarser levels significantly reduces the advantages of the multilevel approach. To overcome that bottleneck we propose to combine the multilevel approach of MLMC with local time-stepping (LTS). By adapting the time-step to the locally refined elements on each level, the efficiency of MLMC methods is restored even in the presence of complex geometry without sacrificing the explicitness and inherent parallelism. In a careful cost comparison, we quantify the reduction in computational cost for local refinement either inside a small fixed region or towards a reentrant corner.

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arXiv2021

Stability properties of a projector-splitting scheme for dynamical low rank approximation of random parabolic equations

We consider the Dynamical Low Rank (DLR) approximation of random parabolic equations and propose a class of fully discrete numerical schemes. Similarly to the continuous DLR approximation, our schemes are shown to satisfy a discrete variational formulation. By exploiting this property, we establish stability of our schemes: we show that our explicit and semi-implicit versions are conditionally stable under a parabolic type CFL condition which does not depend on the smallest singular value of the DLR solution; whereas our implicit scheme is unconditionally stable. Moreover, we show that, in certain cases, the semi-implicit scheme can be unconditionally stable if the randomness in the system is sufficiently small. Furthermore, we show that these schemes can be interpreted as projector-splitting integrators and are strongly related to the scheme proposed by Lubich et al. [BIT Num. Math., 54:171-188, 2014; SIAM J. on Num. Anal., 53:917-941, 2015], to which our stability analysis applies as well. The analysis is supported by numerical results showing the sharpness of the obtained stability conditions.

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arXiv2021

Preconditioners for robust optimal control problems under uncertainty

The discretization of robust quadratic optimal control problems under uncertainty using the finite element method and the stochastic collocation method leads to large saddle-point systems, which are fully coupled across the random realizations. Despite its relevance for numerous engineering problems, the solution of such systems is notoriusly challenging. In this manuscript, we study efficient preconditioners for all-at-once approaches using both an algebraic and an operator preconditioning framework. We show in particular that for values of the regularization parameter not too small, the saddle-point system can be efficiently solved by preconditioning in parallel all the state and adjoint equations. For small values of the regularization parameter, robustness can be recovered by the additional solution of a small linear system, which however couples all realizations. A mean approximation and a Chebyshev semi-iterative method are investigated to solve this reduced system. Our analysis considers a random elliptic partial differential equation whose diffusion coefficient $κ(x,ω)$ is modeled as an almost surely continuous and positive random field, though not necessarily uniformly bounded and coercive. We further provide estimates on the dependence of the preconditioned system on the variance of the random field. Such estimates involve either the first or second moment of the random variables $1/\min_{x\in \overline{D}} κ(x,ω)$ and $\max_{x\in \overline{D}}κ(x,ω)$, where $D$ is the spatial domain. The theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments, and implementation details are further addressed.

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arXiv2021

Fast approximation by periodic kernel-based lattice-point interpolation with application in uncertainty quantification

This paper deals with the kernel-based approximation of a multivariate periodic function by interpolation at the points of an integration lattice -- a setting that, as pointed out by Zeng, Leung, Hickernell (MCQMC2004, 2006) and Zeng, Kritzer, Hickernell (Constr. Approx., 2009), allows fast evaluation by fast Fourier transform, so avoiding the need for a linear solver. The main contribution of the paper is the application to the approximation problem for uncertainty quantification of elliptic partial differential equations, with the diffusion coefficient given by a random field that is periodic in the stochastic variables, in the model proposed recently by Kaarnioja, Kuo, Sloan (SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 2020). The paper gives a full error analysis, and full details of the construction of lattices needed to ensure a good (but inevitably not optimal) rate of convergence and an error bound independent of dimension. Numerical experiments support the theory.

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arXiv2021

Generalized Parallel Tempering on Bayesian Inverse Problems

In the current work we present two generalizations of the Parallel Tempering algorithm, inspired by the so-called continuous-time Infinite Swapping algorithm. Such a method, found its origins in the molecular dynamics community, and can be understood as the limit case of the continuous-time Parallel Tempering algorithm, where the (random) time between swaps of states between two parallel chains goes to zero. Thus, swapping states between chains occurs continuously. In the current work, we extend this idea to the context of time-discrete Markov chains and present two Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that follow the same paradigm as the continuous-time infinite swapping procedure. We analyze the convergence properties of such discrete-time algorithms in terms of their spectral gap, and implement them to sample from different target distributions. Numerical results show that the proposed methods significantly improve over more traditional sampling algorithms such as Random Walk Metropolis and (traditional) Parallel Tempering.

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arXiv2021

Non-intrusive double-greedy parametric model reduction by interpolation of frequency-domain rational surrogates

We propose a model order reduction approach for non-intrusive surrogate modeling of parametric dynamical systems. The reduced model over the whole parameter space is built by combining surrogates in frequency only, built at few selected values of the parameters. This, in particular, requires matching the respective poles by solving an optimization problem. If the frequency surrogates are constructed by a suitable rational interpolation strategy, frequency and parameters can both be sampled in an adaptive fashion. This, in general, yields frequency surrogates with different numbers of poles, a situation addressed by our proposed algorithm. Moreover, we explain how our method can be applied even in high-dimensional settings, by employing locally-refined sparse grids in parameter space to weaken the curse of dimensionality. Numerical examples are used to showcase the effectiveness of the method, and to highlight some of its limitations in dealing with unbalanced pole matching, as well as with a large number of parameters.

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arXiv2021

Analysis of a class of Multi-Level Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on Independent Metropolis-Hastings

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of Multi-Level Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function involves solving a complex differential model, which is then approximated on a sequence of increasingly accurate discretizations. The key point of this algorithm is to construct highly coupled Markov chains together with the standard Multi-level Monte Carlo argument to obtain a better cost-tolerance complexity than a single-level MCMC algorithm. Our method extends the ideas of Dodwell, et al. "A hierarchical multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with applications to uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow," \textit{SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 3.1 (2015): 1075-1108,} to a wider range of proposal distributions. We present a thorough convergence analysis of the ML-MCMC method proposed, and show, in particular, that (i) under some mild conditions on the (independent) proposals and the family of posteriors, there exists a unique invariant probability measure for the coupled chains generated by our method, and (ii) that such coupled chains are uniformly ergodic. We also generalize the cost-tolerance theorem of Dodwell et al., to our wider class of ML-MCMC algorithms. Finally, we propose a self-tuning continuation-type ML-MCMC algorithm (C-ML-MCMC). The presented method is tested on an array of academic examples, where some of our theoretical results are numerically verified. These numerical experiments evidence how our extended ML-MCMC method is robust when targeting some \emph{pathological} posteriors, for which some of the previously proposed ML-MCMC algorithms fail.

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arXiv2021

Integration of activation maps of epicardial veins in computational cardiac electrophysiology

In this work we address the issue of validating the monodomain equation used in combination with the Bueno-Orovio ionic model for the prediction of the activation times in cardiac electro-physiology of the left ventricle. To this aim, we consider our patients who suffered from Left Bundle Branch Block (LBBB). We use activation maps performed at the septum as input data for the model and maps at the epicardial veins for the validation. In particular, a first set (half) of the latter are used to estimate the conductivities of the patient and a second set (the remaining half) to compute the errors of the numerical simulations. We find an excellent agreement between measures and numerical results. Our validated computational tool could be used to accurately predict activation times at the epicardial veins with a short mapping, i.e. by using only a part (the most proximal) of the standard acquisition points, thus reducing the invasive procedure and exposure to radiation.

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