arXiv subjects

Fabio Saracco

Publications and source records attributed to Fabio Saracco.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Swinging in the States: Does disinformation on Twitter mirror the US presidential election system?

For more than a decade scholars have been investigating the disinformation flow on social media contextually to societal events, like, e.g., elections. In this paper, we analyze the Twitter traffic related to the US 2020 pre-election debate and ask whether it mirrors the electoral system. The U.S. electoral system provides that, regardless of the actual vote gap, the premier candidate who received more votes in one state `takes' that state. Criticisms of this system have pointed out that election campaigns can be more intense in particular key states to achieve victory, so-called {\it swing states}. Our intuition is that election debate may cause more traffic on Twitter-and probably be more plagued by misinformation-when associated with swing states. The results mostly confirm the intuition. About 88\% of the entire traffic can be associated with swing states, and links to non-trustworthy news are shared far more in swing-related traffic than the same type of news in safe-related traffic. Considering traffic origin instead, non-trustworthy tweets generated by automated accounts, so-called social bots, are mostly associated with swing states. Our work sheds light on the role an electoral system plays in the evolution of online debates, with, in the spotlight, disinformation and social bots.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Bibliometric and social network analysis on the use of satellite imagery in agriculture: an entropy-based approach

Satellite imagery is gaining popularity as a valuable tool to lower the impact on natural resources and increase profits for farmers. The purpose of this study is twofold: to mine the scientific literature to reveal the structure of this research domain, and to investigate to what extent scientific results can reach a wider public audience. To meet these two objectives, a Web of Science and a Twitter dataset were retrieved and analysed, respectively. For the academic literature, different performances of various countries were observed: the USA and China resulted as the leading actors, both in terms of published papers and employed researchers. Among the categorised keywords, "resolution", "Landsat", "yield", "wheat" and "multispectral" are the most used. Then, analysing the semantic network of the words used in the various abstracts, the different facets of the research in satellite remote sensing were detected. The importance of retrieving meteorological parameters through remote sensing and the broad use of vegetation indexes emerged from these analyses. As emerging topics, classification tasks for land use assessment and crop recognition stand out, alongside the use of hyperspectral sensors. Regarding the interaction of academia with the public, the analysis showed that it is practically absent on Twitter: most of the activity therein stems from private companies advertising their business. This shows that there is still a communication gap between academia and actors from other societal sectors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The Fitness-Corrected Block Model, or how to create maximum-entropy data-driven spatial social networks

Models of networks play a major role in explaining and reproducing empirically observed patterns. Suitable models can be used to randomize an observed network while preserving some of its features, or to generate synthetic graphs whose properties may be tuned upon the characteristics of a given population. In the present paper, we introduce the Fitness-Corrected Block Model, an adjustable-density variation of the well-known Degree-Corrected Block Model, and we show that the proposed construction yields a maximum entropy model. When the network is sparse, we derive an analytical expression for the degree distribution of the model that depends on just the constraints and the chosen fitness-distribution. Our model is perfectly suited to define maximum-entropy data-driven spatial social networks, where each block identifies vertices having similar position (e.g., residence) and age, and where the expected block-to-block adjacency matrix can be inferred from the available data. In this case, the sparse-regime approximation coincides with a phenomenological model where the probability of a link binding two individuals is directly proportional to their sociability and to the typical cohesion of their age-groups, whereas it decays as an inverse-power of their geographic distance. We support our analytical findings through simulations of a stylized urban area.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Bow-Tie Structures of Twitter Discursive Communities

In the analysis of Twitter debate, the recent literature focused on discursive communities, i.e. clusters of accounts interacting among themselves via retweets. In the present work, we studied discursive communities in 8 different thematic Twitter datasets in various languages. Surprisingly, we observed that almost all discursive communities therein display a bow-tie structure during political or societal debates. Instead, they are absent when the argument of the discussion is different as sport events, as in the case of Euro2020 Turkish and Italian datasets. We furthermore analysed the quality of the content created in the various sectors of the different discursive communities, using the domain annotation from the fact-checking website Newsguard: we observe that, when the discursive community is affected by m/disinformation, the content with the lowest quality is the ones produced and shared in SCC and, in particular, a strong incidence of low- or non-reputable messages is present in the flow of retweets between the SCC and the OUT sectors. In this sense, in discursive communities affected by m/disinformation, the greatest part of the accounts has access to a great variety of contents, but whose quality is, in general, quite low; such a situation perfectly describes the phenomenon of infodemic, i.e. the access to "an excessive amount of information about a problem, which makes it difficult to identify a solution", according to WHO).

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Brexit and bots: characterizing the behaviour of automated accounts on Twitter during the UK election

Online Social Networks represent a novel opportunity for political campaigns, revolutionising the paradigm of political communication. Nevertheless, many studies uncovered the presence of d/misinformation campaigns or of malicious activities by genuine or automated users, putting at severe risk the credibility of online platforms. This phenomenon is particularly evident during crucial political events, as political elections. In the present paper, we provide a comprehensive description of the structure of the networks of interactions among users and bots during the UK elections of 2019. In particular, we focus on the polarised discussion about Brexit on Twitter analysing a data set made of more than 10 million tweets posted for over a month. We found that the presence of automated accounts fostered the debate particularly in the days before the UK national elections, in which we find a steep increase of bots in the discussion; in the days after the election day, their incidence returned to values similar to the ones observed few weeks before the elections. On the other hand, we found that the number of suspended users (i.e. accounts that were removed by the platform for some violation of the Twitter policy) remained constant until the election day, after which it reached significantly higher values. Remarkably, after the TV debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, we observed the injection of a large number of novel bots whose behaviour is markedly different from that of pre-existing ones. Finally, we explored the bots' stance, finding that their activity is spread across the whole political spectrum, although in different proportions, and we studied the different usage of hashtags by automated accounts and suspended users, thus targeting the formation of common narratives in different sides of the debate.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Fast and scalable likelihood maximization for Exponential Random Graph Models with local constraints

Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) have gained increasing popularity over the years. Rooted into statistical physics, the ERGMs framework has been successfully employed for reconstructing networks, detecting statistically significant patterns in graphs, counting networked configurations with given properties. From a technical point of view, the ERGMs workflow is defined by two subsequent optimization steps: the first one concerns the maximization of Shannon entropy and leads to identify the functional form of the ensemble probability distribution that is maximally non-committal with respect to the missing information; the second one concerns the maximization of the likelihood function induced by this probability distribution and leads to its numerical determination. This second step translates into the resolution of a system of $O(N)$ non-linear, coupled equations (with $N$ being the total number of nodes of the network under analysis), a problem that is affected by three main issues, i.e. accuracy, speed and scalability. The present paper aims at addressing these problems by comparing the performance of three algorithms (i.e. Newton's method, a quasi-Newton method and a recently-proposed fixed-point recipe) in solving several ERGMs, defined by binary and weighted constraints in both a directed and an undirected fashion. While Newton's method performs best for relatively little networks, the fixed-point recipe is to be preferred when large configurations are considered, as it ensures convergence to the solution within seconds for networks with hundreds of thousands of nodes (e.g. the Internet, Bitcoin). We attach to the paper a Python code implementing the three aforementioned algorithms on all the ERGMs considered in the present work.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2021

Analysing Twitter Semantic Networks: the case of 2018 Italian Elections

Social media play a key role in shaping citizens' political opinion. According to the Eurobarometer, the percentage of EU citizens employing online social networks on a daily basis has increased from 18% in 2010 to 48% in 2019. The entwinement between social media and the unfolding of political dynamics has motivated the interest of researchers for the analysis of users online behavior - with particular emphasis on group polarization during debates and echo-chambers formation. In this context, attention has been predominantly directed towards the study of online relations between users while semantic aspects have remained under-explored. In the present paper, we aim at filling this gap by adopting a two-steps approach. First, we identify the discursive communities animating the political debate in the run up of the 2018 Italian Elections as groups of users with a significantly-similar retweeting behavior. Second, we study the semantic mechanisms that shape their internal discussions by monitoring, on a daily basis, the structural evolution of the semantic networks they induce. Above and beyond specifying the semantic peculiarities of the Italian electoral competition, our approach innovates studies of online political discussions in two main ways. On the one hand, it grounds semantic analysis within users' behaviors by implementing a method, rooted in statistical theory, that guarantees that our inference of socio-semantic structures is not biased by any unsupported assumption about missing information; on the other, it is completely automated as it does not rest upon any manual labelling (either based on the users' features or on their sharing patterns). These elements make our method applicable to any Twitter discussion regardless of the language or the topic addressed.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Networked partisanship and framing: a socio-semantic network analysis of the Italian debate on migration

The huge amount of data made available by the massive usage of social media has opened up the unprecedented possibility to carry out a data-driven study of political processes. While particular attention has been paid to phenomena like elite and mass polarization during online debates and echo-chambers formation, the interplay between online partisanship and framing practices, jointly sustaining adversarial dynamics, still remains overlooked. With the present paper, we carry out a socio-semantic analysis of the debate about migration policies observed on the Italian Twittersphere, across the period May-November 2019. As regards the social analysis, our methodology allows us to extract relevant information about the political orientation of the communities of users - hereby called partisan communities - without resorting upon any external information. Remarkably, our community detection technique is sensitive enough to clearly highlight the dynamics characterizing the relationship among different political forces.As regards the semantic analysis, our networks of hashtags display a mesoscale structure organized in a core-periphery fashion, across the entire observation period. Taken altogether, our results point at different, yet overlapping, trajectories of conflict played out using migration issues as a backdrop. A first line opposes communities discussing substantively of migration to communities approaching this issue just to fuel hostility against political opponents; within the second line, a mechanism of distancing between partisan communities reflects shifting political alliances within the governmental coalition. Ultimately, our results contribute to shed light on the complexity of the Italian political context characterized by multiple poles of partisan alignment.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Italian Twitter semantic network during the Covid-19 epidemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a deep impact on the lives of the entire world population, inducing a participated societal debate. As in other contexts, the debate has been the subject of several d/misinformation campaigns; in a quite unprecedented fashion, however, the presence of false information has seriously put at risk the public health. In this sense, detecting the presence of malicious narratives and identifying the kinds of users that are more prone to spread them represent the first step to limit the persistence of the former ones. In the present paper we analyse the semantic network observed on Twitter during the first Italian lockdown (induced by the hashtags contained in approximately 1.5 millions tweets published between the 23rd of March 2020 and the 23rd of April 2020) and study the extent to which various discursive communities are exposed to d/misinformation arguments. As observed in other studies, the recovered discursive communities largely overlap with traditional political parties, even if the debated topics concern different facets of the management of the pandemic. Although the themes directly related to d/misinformation are a minority of those discussed within our semantic networks, their popularity is unevenly distributed among the various discursive communities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Firms' Challenges and Social Responsibilities during Covid-19: a Twitter Analysis

The Covid-19 pandemic caused disruptive effects for individuals, firms, and societies. In this paper, we offer insights on the major issues and challenges firms are facing in the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as their concerns for Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) themes. To do so, we investigate large Italian firms' discussion on Twitter in the first nine months of the pandemic. We downloaded all Twitter posts from 1st of March, 2020, to 17th of November, 2020 by the accounts of the largest Italian firms, i.e. those with 250 or more employees. We then built the bipartite network of accounts and hashtags and, using an entropy-based null model as a benchmark, we projected the information contained in the network into the accounts layers, identifying a network of accounts in which a link indicates a non trivial similarity in terms of their usage of hashtags. We find that the conversation is focused around 13 communities, 10 of which include Covid-19 themes. The core of the network is formed of 5 communities, which deal with environmental sustainability, digital innovation and safety. Firms' ownership type does not seem to influence the conversation. 10 communities out of 13 mention hashtags related to CSR, with the environmental and social dimensions as the prevalent ones. Interestingly enough, the social dimension seems more relevant in the communities dealing with digital innovation and safety. However, the relevance of CSR hashtags is very small at the single message level, but with some peculiarities arising in specific communities. Overall, our paper highlights the role of network methods on Twitter data as a tool which can support managers and policy makers to design their strategies and decision making, capturing firms' emerging issues and relevant themes.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

The Physics of Financial Networks

The field of Financial Networks is a paramount example of the novel applications of Statistical Physics that have made possible by the present data revolution. As the total value of the global financial market has vastly outgrown the value of the real economy, financial institutions on this planet have created a web of interactions whose size and topology calls for a quantitative analysis by means of Complex Networks. Financial Networks are not only a playground for the use of basic tools of statistical physics as ensemble representation and entropy maximization; rather, their particular dynamics and evolution triggered theoretical advancements as the definition of DebtRank to measure the impact and diffusion of shocks in the whole systems. In this review we present the state of the art in this field, starting from the different definitions of financial networks (based either on loans, on assets ownership, on contracts involving several parties -- such as credit default swaps, to multiplex representation when firms are introduced in the game and a link with real economy is drawn) and then discussing the various dynamics of financial contagion as well as applications in financial network inference and validation. We believe that this analysis is particularly timely since financial stability as well as recent innovations in climate finance, once properly analysed and understood in terms of complex network theory, can play a pivotal role in the transformation of our society towards a more sustainable world.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Flow of online misinformation during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on every human activity and, because of the urgency of finding the proper responses to such an unprecedented emergency, it generated a diffused societal debate. The online version of this discussion was not exempted by the presence of d/misinformation campaigns, but differently from what already witnessed in other debates, the COVID-19 -- intentional or not -- flow of false information put at severe risk the public health, reducing the effectiveness of governments' countermeasures. In the present manuscript, we study the effective impact of misinformation in the Italian societal debate on Twitter during the pandemic, focusing on the various discursive communities. In order to extract the discursive communities, we focus on verified users, i.e. accounts whose identity is officially certified by Twitter. We thus infer the various discursive communities based on how verified users are perceived by standard ones: if two verified accounts are considered as similar by non unverified ones, we link them in the network of certified accounts. We first observe that, beside being a mostly scientific subject, the COVID-19 discussion show a clear division in what results to be different political groups. At this point, by using a commonly available fact-checking software (NewsGuard), we assess the reputation of the pieces of news exchanged. We filter the network of retweets (i.e. users re-broadcasting the same elementary piece of information, or tweet) from random noise and check the presence of messages displaying an url. The impact of misinformation posts reaches the 22.1% in the right and center-right wing community and its contribution is even stronger in absolute numbers, due to the activity of this group: 96% of all non reputable urls shared by political groups come from this community.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

The ambiguity of nestedness under soft and hard constraints

Many real networks feature the property of nestedness, i.e. the neighbours of nodes with a few connections are hierarchically nested within the neighbours of nodes with more connections. Despite the abstract simplicity of this notion, different mathematical definitions of nestedness have been proposed, sometimes giving contrasting results. Moreover, there is an ongoing debate on the statistical significance of nestedness, since even random networks where the number of connections (degree) of each node is fixed to its empirical value are typically as nested as real-world ones. Here we propose a clarification that exploits the recent finding that random networks where the degrees are enforced as hard constraints (microcanonical ensembles) are thermodynamically different from random networks where the degrees are enforced as soft constraints (canonical ensembles). We show that if the real network is perfectly nested, then the two ensembles are trivially equivalent and the observed nestedness, independently of its definition, is indeed an unavoidable consequence of the empirical degrees. On the other hand, if the real network is not perfectly nested, then the two ensembles are not equivalent and alternative definitions of nestedness can be even positively correlated in the canonical ensemble and negatively correlated in the microcanonical one. This result disentangles distinct notions of nestedness captured by different metrics and highlights the importance of making a principled choice between hard and soft constraints in null models of ecological networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

A model for the Twitter sentiment curve

Twitter is among the most used online platforms for the political communications, due to the concision of its messages (which is particularly suitable for political slogans) and the quick diffusion of messages. Especially when the argument stimulate the emotionality of users, the content on Twitter is shared with extreme speed and thus studying the tweet sentiment if of utmost importance to predict the evolution of the discussions and the register of the relative narratives. In this article, we present a model able to reproduce the dynamics of the sentiments of tweets related to specific topics and periods and to provide a prediction of the sentiment of the future posts based on the observed past. The model is a recent variant of the Pólya urn, introduced and studied in arXiv:1906.10951 and arXiv:2010.06373, which is characterized by a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the most recent observations, and by a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean. In particular, this latter feature is capable of capturing the trend fluctuations in the sentiment curve. While the proposed model is extremely general and may be also employed in other contexts, it has been tested on several Twitter data sets and demonstrated greater performances compared to the standard Pólya urn model. Moreover, the different performances on different data sets highlight different emotional sensitivities respect to a public event.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Towards a generalization of information theory for hierarchical partitions

Complex systems often exhibit multiple levels of organization covering a wide range of physical scales, so the study of the hierarchical decomposition of their structure and function is frequently convenient. To better understand this phenomenon, we introduce a generalization of information theory that works with hierarchical partitions. We begin revisiting the recently introduced Hierarchical Mutual Information (HMI), and show that it can be written as a level by level summation of classical conditional mutual information terms. Then, we prove that the HMI is bounded from above by the corresponding hierarchical joint entropy. In this way, in analogy to the classical case, we derive hierarchical generalizations of many other classical information-theoretic quantities. In particular, we prove that, as opposed to its classical counterpart, the hierarchical generalization of the Variation of Information is not a metric distance, but it admits a transformation into one. Moreover, focusing on potential applications of the existing developments of the theory, we show how to adjust by chance the HMI. We also corroborate and analyze all the presented theoretical results with exhaustive numerical computations, and include an illustrative application example of the introduced formalism. Finally, we mention some open problems that should be eventually addressed for the proposed generalization of information theory to reach maturity.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2019

The Statistical Physics of Real-World Networks

In the last 15 years, statistical physics has been a very successful framework to model complex networks. On the theoretical side, this approach has brought novel insights into a variety of physical phenomena, such as self-organisation, scale invariance, emergence of mixed distributions and ensemble non-equivalence, that display unconventional features on heterogeneous networks. At the same time, thanks to their deep connection with information theory, statistical physics and the principle of maximum entropy have led to the definition of null models for networks reproducing some features of real-world systems, but otherwise as random as possible. We review here the statistical physics approach and the various null models for complex networks, focusing in particular on the analytic frameworks reproducing the local network features. We then show how these models have been used to detect statistically significant and predictive structural patterns in real-world networks, as well as to reconstruct the network structure in case of incomplete information. We further survey the statistical physics models that reproduce more complex, semi-local network features using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, as well as the models of generalised network structures such as multiplex networks, interacting networks and simplicial complexes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The role of bot squads in the political propaganda on Twitter

Social Media are nowadays the privileged channel for information spreading and news checking. Unexpectedly for most of the users, automated accounts, also known as social bots, contribute more and more to this process of news spreading. Using Twitter as a benchmark, we consider the traffic exchanged, over one month of observation, on a specific topic, namely the migration flux from Northern Africa to Italy. We measure the significant traffic of tweets only, by implementing an entropy-based null model that discounts the activity of users and the virality of tweets. Results show that social bots play a central role in the exchange of significant content. Indeed, not only the strongest hubs have a number of bots among their followers higher than expected, but furthermore a group of them, that can be assigned to the same political tendency, share a common set of bots as followers. The retwitting activity of such automated accounts amplifies the presence on the platform of the hubs' messages.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Collaboration and followership: a stochastic model for activities in social networks

In this work we investigate how future actions are influenced by the previous ones, in the specific contexts of scientific collaborations and friendships on social networks. We are not interested in modeling the process of link formation between the agents themselves, we instead describe the activity of the agents, providing a model for the formation of the bipartite network of actions and their features. Therefore we only require to know the chronological order in which the actions are performed, and not the order in which the agents are observed. Moreover, the total number of possible features is not specified a priori but is allowed to increase along time, and new actions can independently show some new entry features or exhibit some of the old ones. The choice of the old features is driven by a degree-fitness method. With this term we mean that the probability that a new action shows one of the old features does not solely depend on the "popularity" of that feature (i.e. the number of previous actions showing it), but is also affected by some individual traits of the agents or the features themselves, synthesized in certain quantities, called "fitnesses" or "weights", that can have different forms and different meaning according to the specific setting considered. We show some theoretical properties of the model and provide statistical tools for the parameters' estimation. The model has been tested on three different datasets and the numerical results are provided and discussed.

physics.soc-ph↗