arXiv subjects

Fabrizio Lillo

Publications and source records attributed to Fabrizio Lillo.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

The multiplex structure of interbank networks

The interbank market has a natural multiplex network representation. We employ a unique database of supervisory reports of Italian banks to the Banca d'Italia that includes all bilateral exposures broken down by maturity and by the secured and unsecured nature of the contract. We find that layers have different topological properties and persistence over time. The presence of a link in a layer is not a good predictor of the presence of the same link in other layers. Maximum entropy models reveal different unexpected substructures, such as network motifs, in different layers. Using the total interbank network or focusing on a specific layer as representative of the other layers provides a poor representation of interlinkages in the interbank market and could lead to biased estimation of systemic risk.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov process is the transition between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared returns to describe the dependence of the probability of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a Double Chain Markov Model. We show that the model describes the shape of return distribution at different time aggregations, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis of returns. We calibrate our models on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2013

How efficiency shapes market impact

We develop a theory for the market impact of large trading orders, which we call metaorders because they are typically split into small pieces and executed incrementally. Market impact is empirically observed to be a concave function of metaorder size, i.e., the impact per share of large metaorders is smaller than that of small metaorders. We formulate a stylized model of an algorithmic execution service and derive a fair pricing condition, which says that the average transaction price of the metaorder is equal to the price after trading is completed. We show that at equilibrium the distribution of trading volume adjusts to reflect information, and dictates the shape of the impact function. The resulting theory makes empirically testable predictions for the functional form of both the temporary and permanent components of market impact. Based on the commonly observed asymptotic distribution for the volume of large trades, it says that market impact should increase asymptotically roughly as the square root of metaorder size, with average permanent impact relaxing to about two thirds of peak impact.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2013

Multi-scale analysis of the European airspace using network community detection

We show that the European airspace can be represented as a multi-scale traffic network whose nodes are airports, sectors, or navigation points and links are defined and weighted according to the traffic of flights between the nodes. By using a unique database of the air traffic in the European airspace, we investigate the architecture of these networks with a special emphasis on their community structure. We propose that unsupervised network community detection algorithms can be used to monitor the current use of the airspaces and improve it by guiding the design of new ones. Specifically, we compare the performance of three community detection algorithms, also by using a null model which takes into account the spatial distance between nodes, and we discuss their ability to find communities that could be used to define new control units of the airspace.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

The effect of round-off error on long memory processes

We study how the round-off (or discretization) error changes the statistical properties of a Gaussian long memory process. We show that the autocovariance and the spectral density of the discretized process are asymptotically rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute exactly this scaling factor. Consequently, we find that the discretized process is also long memory with the same Hurst exponent as the original process. We consider the properties of two estimators of the Hurst exponent, namely the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). By using analytical considerations and numerical simulations we show that, in presence of round-off error, both estimators are severely negatively biased in finite samples. Under regularity conditions we prove that the LW estimator applied to discretized processes is consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, we compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for a generic (i.e. non Gaussian) long memory process and we apply the result to discretized processes.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2013

Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2013

Modelling the Air Transport with Complex Networks: a short review

Air transport is a key infrastructure of modern societies. In this paper we review some recent approaches to air transport, which make extensive use of theory of complex networks. We discuss possible networks that can be defined for the air transport and we focus our attention to networks of airports connected by flights. We review several papers investigating the topology of these networks and their dynamics for time scales ranging from years to intraday intervals, and consider also the resilience properties of air networks to extreme events. Finally we discuss the results of some recent papers investigating the dynamics on air transport network, with emphasis on passengers traveling in the network and epidemic spreading mediated by air transport.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Scale-free relaxation of a wave packet in a quantum well with power-law tails

We propose a setup for which a power-law decay is predicted to be observable for generic and realistic conditions. The system we study is very simple: A quantum wave packet initially prepared in a potential well with (i) tails asymptotically decaying like ~ x^{-2} and (ii) an eigenvalues spectrum that shows a continuous part attached to the ground or equilibrium state. We analytically derive the asymptotic decay law from the spectral properties for generic, confined initial states. Our findings are supported by realistic numerical simulations for state-of-the-art expansion experiments with cold atoms.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2012

How news affect the trading behavior of different categories of investors in a financial market

We investigate the trading behavior of a large set of single investors trading the highly liquid Nokia stock over the period 2003-2008 with the aim of determining the relative role of endogenous and exogenous factors that may affect their behavior. As endogenous factors we consider returns and volatility, whereas the exogenous factors we use are the total daily number of news and a semantic variable based on a sentiment analysis of news. Linear regression and partial correlation analysis of data show that different categories of investors are differently correlated to these factors. Governmental and non profit organizations are weakly sensitive to news and returns or volatility, and, typically, they are more correlated with the former than with the latter. Households and companies, on the contrary, are very sensitive to both endogenous and exogenous factors, and volatility and returns are, on average, much more relevant than the number of news and sentiment, respectively. Finally, financial institutions and foreign organizations are intermediate between these two cases, in terms of both the total explanatory power of these factors and their relative importance.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2012

Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact

Trading large volumes of a financial asset in order driven markets requires the use of algorithmic execution dividing the volume in many transactions in order to minimize costs due to market impact. A proper design of an optimal execution strategy strongly depends on a careful modeling of market impact, i.e. how the price reacts to trades. In this paper we consider a recently introduced market impact model (Bouchaud et al., 2004), which has the property of describing both the volume and the temporal dependence of price change due to trading. We show how this model can be used to describe price impact also in aggregated trade time or in real time. We then solve analytically and calibrate with real data the optimal execution problem both for risk neutral and for risk averse investors and we derive an efficient frontier of optimal execution. When we include spread costs the problem must be solved numerically and we show that the introduction of such costs regularizes the solution.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2012

How does the market react to your order flow?

We present an empirical study of the intertwined behaviour of members in a financial market. Exploiting a database where the broker that initiates an order book event can be identified, we decompose the correlation and response functions into contributions coming from different market participants and study how their behaviour is interconnected. We find evidence that (1) brokers are very heterogeneous in liquidity provision -- some are consistently liquidity providers while others are consistently liquidity takers. (2) The behaviour of brokers is strongly conditioned on the actions of {\it other} brokers. In contrast brokers are only weakly influenced by the impact of their own previous orders. (3) The total impact of market orders is the result of a subtle compensation between the same broker pushing the price in one direction and the liquidity provision of other brokers pushing it in the opposite direction. These results enforce the picture of market dynamics being the result of the competition between heterogeneous participants interacting to form a complicated market ecology.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2011

Identification of clusters of investors from their real trading activity in a financial market

We use statistically validated networks, a recently introduced method to validate links in a bipartite system, to identify clusters of investors trading in a financial market. Specifically, we investigate a special database allowing to track the trading activity of individual investors of the stock Nokia. We find that many statistically detected clusters of investors show a very high degree of synchronization in the time when they decide to trade and in the trading action taken. We investigate the composition of these clusters and we find that several of them show an over-expression of specific categories of investors.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2011

Do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution? A new statistical test

We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functional forms belonging to the Subbotin family of distributions. While our hypotheses are rejected for the vast majority of sets at the sector level, we cannot rejected them at the subsector level, indicating that homogenous panels of firms could be described by a common functional form of growth rate distribution.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2011

Segmentation algorithm for non-stationary compound Poisson processes

We introduce an algorithm for the segmentation of a class of regime switching processes. The segmentation algorithm is a non parametric statistical method able to identify the regimes (patches) of the time series. The process is composed of consecutive patches of variable length, each patch being described by a stationary compound Poisson process, i.e. a Poisson process where each count is associated to a fluctuating signal. The parameters of the process are different in each patch and therefore the time series is non stationary. Our method is a generalization of the algorithm introduced by Bernaola-Galvan, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 87, 168105 (2001). We show that the new algorithm outperforms the original one for regime switching compound Poisson processes. As an application we use the algorithm to segment the time series of the inventory of market members of the London Stock Exchange and we observe that our method finds almost three times more patches than the original one.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2011

Trading activity and price impact in parallel markets: SETS vs. off-book market at the London Stock Exchange

We empirically study the trading activity in the electronic on-book segment and in the dealership off-book segment of the London Stock Exchange, investigating separately the trading of active market members and of other market participants which are non-members. We find that (i) the volume distribution of off-book transactions has a significantly fatter tail than the one of on-book transactions, (ii) groups of members and non-members can be classified in categories according to their trading profile (iii) there is a strong anticorrelation between the daily inventory variation of a market member due to the on-book market transactions and inventory variation due to the off-book market transactions with non-members, and (iv) the autocorrelation of the sign of the orders of non-members in the off-book market is slowly decaying. We also analyze the on-book price impact function over time, both for positive and negative lags, of the electronic trades and of the off-book trades. The unconditional impact curves are very different for the electronic trades and the off-book trades. Moreover there is a small dependence of impact on the volume for the on-book electronic trades, while the shape and magnitude of impact function of off-book transactions strongly depend on volume.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2010

Community characterization of heterogeneous complex systems

We introduce an analytical statistical method to characterize the communities detected in heterogeneous complex systems. By posing a suitable null hypothesis, our method makes use of the hypergeometric distribution to assess the probability that a given property is over-expressed in the elements of a community with respect to all the elements of the investigated set. We apply our method to two specific complex networks, namely a network of world movies and a network of physics preprints. The characterization of the elements and of the communities is done in terms of languages and countries for the movie network and of journals and subject categories for papers. We find that our method is able to characterize clearly the identified communities. Moreover our method works well both for large and for small communities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Tick size and price diffusion

A tick size is the smallest increment of a security price. It is clear that at the shortest time scale on which individual orders are placed the tick size has a major role which affects where limit orders can be placed, the bid-ask spread, etc. This is the realm of market microstructure and there is a vast literature on the role of tick size on market microstructure. However, tick size can also affect price properties at longer time scales, and relatively less is known about the effect of tick size on the statistical properties of prices. The present paper is divided in two parts. In the first we review the effect of tick size change on the market microstructure and the diffusion properties of prices. The second part presents original results obtained by investigating the tick size changes occurring at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). We show that tick size change has three effects on price diffusion. First, as already shown in the literature, tick size affects price return distribution at an aggregate time scale. Second, reducing the tick size typically leads to an increase of volatility clustering. We give a possible mechanistic explanation for this effect, but clearly more investigation is needed to understand the origin of this relation. Third, we explicitly show that the ability of the subordination hypothesis in explaining fat tails of returns and volatility clustering is strongly dependent on tick size. While for large tick sizes the subordination hypothesis has significant explanatory power, for small tick sizes we show that subordination is not the main driver of these two important stylized facts of financial market.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2010

Statistically validated networks in bipartite complex systems

Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite nature and are often described and modeled in terms of networks [1-5]. Examples include movies and actors [1, 2, 4], authors and scientific papers [6-9], email accounts and emails [10], plants and animals that pollinate them [11, 12]. Bipartite networks are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set. When one constructs a projected network with nodes from only one set, the system heterogeneity makes it very difficult to identify preferential links between the elements. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of the projected network against a null hypothesis taking into account the heterogeneity of the system. We apply our method to three different systems, namely the set of clusters of orthologous genes (COG) in completely sequenced genomes [13, 14], a set of daily returns of 500 US financial stocks, and the set of world movies of the IMDb database [15]. In all these systems, both different in size and level of heterogeneity, we find that our method is able to detect network structures which are informative about the system and are not simply expression of its heterogeneity. Specifically, our method (i) identifies the preferential relationships between the elements, (ii) naturally highlights the clustered structure of investigated systems, and (iii) allows to classify links according to the type of statistically validated relationships between the connected nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗