Projecting the ultimate pulsar timing sensitivity to dark matter substructure in a stochastic gravitational wave background
Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are sensitive to the gravitational influence of passing compact substructures, which can produce Doppler timing delays by accelerating pulsars or the Solar System barycenter, and Shapiro timing delays when passing near Earth--pulsar lines of sight. Projections for the complete PTA sensitivity to compact dark matter (DM) substructures, such as primordial black holes and axion miniclusters, are challenging due to the variety of signal types ranging from rare, nearly static encounters, to dynamic flybys, to the stochastic limit of many substructures. We address this challenge with a framework that combines Monte Carlo signal modeling and machine-learned surrogate likelihoods, enabling a unified likelihood-level analysis of signals previously treated only in simplified limiting regimes. We then use this framework to precisely assess the impact of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB), for which evidence was recently found, on the PTA sensitivity to compact DM substructures. The SGWB substantially weakens the sensitivity, and we find that in even the most optimistic observing scenario only a Shapiro search retains sensitivity to subdominant DM components when assuming SGWB parameters inferred from current measurements.