arXiv subjects

Fan Li

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Li.

At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Causal Inference with Spatio-temporal Data: Estimating the Effects of Airstrikes on Insurgent Violence in Iraq

Many causal processes have spatial and temporal dimensions. Yet the classic causal inference framework is not directly applicable when the treatment and outcome variables are generated by spatio-temporal point processes. We extend the potential outcomes framework to these settings by formulating the treatment point process as a stochastic intervention. Our causal estimands include the expected number of outcome events in a specified area under a particular stochastic treatment assignment strategy. Our methodology allows for arbitrary patterns of spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. Using martingale theory, we show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as the number of time periods increases. We propose a sensitivity analysis for the possible existence of unmeasured confounders, and extend it to the Hajek estimator. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the estimators' finite sample performance. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methods by estimating the effects of American airstrikes on insurgent violence in Iraq from February 2007 to July 2008. Our analysis suggests that increasing the average number of daily airstrikes for up to one month may result in more insurgent attacks. We also find some evidence that airstrikes can displace attacks from Baghdad to new locations up to 400 kilometers away

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

%CRTFASTGEEPWR: a SAS macro for power of the generalized estimating equations of multi-period cluster randomized trials with application to stepped wedge designs

Multi-period cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are increasingly used for the evaluation of interventions delivered at the group level. While generalized estimating equations (GEE) are commonly used to provide population-averaged inference in CRTs, there is a gap of general methods and statistical software tools for power calculation based on multi-parameter, within-cluster correlation structures suitable for multi-period CRTs that can accommodate both complete and incomplete designs. A computationally fast, non-simulation procedure for determining statistical power is described for the GEE analysis of complete and incomplete multi-period cluster randomized trials. The procedure is implemented via a SAS macro, \%CRTFASTGEEPWR, which is applicable to binary, count and continuous responses and several correlation structures in multi-period CRTs. The SAS macro is illustrated in the power calculation of two complete and two incomplete stepped wedge cluster randomized trial scenarios under different specifications of marginal mean model and within-cluster correlation structure. The proposed GEE power method is quite general as demonstrated in the SAS macro with numerous input options. The power procedure and macro can also be used in the planning of parallel and crossover CRTs in addition to cross-sectional and closed cohort stepped wedge trials.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Power analysis for cluster randomized trials with continuous co-primary endpoints

Pragmatic trials evaluating health care interventions often adopt cluster randomization due to scientific or logistical considerations. Previous reviews have shown that co-primary endpoints are common in pragmatic trials but infrequently recognized in sample size or power calculations. While methods for power analysis based on $K$ ($K\geq 2$) binary co-primary endpoints are available for CRTs, to our knowledge, methods for continuous co-primary endpoints are not yet available. Assuming a multivariate linear mixed model that accounts for multiple types of intraclass correlation coefficients (endpoint-specific ICCs, intra-subject ICCs and inter-subject between-endpoint ICCs) among the observations in each cluster, we derive the closed-form joint distribution of $K$ treatment effect estimators to facilitate sample size and power determination with different types of null hypotheses under equal cluster sizes. We characterize the relationship between the power of each test and different types of correlation parameters. We further relax the equal cluster size assumption and approximate the joint distribution of the $K$ treatment effect estimators through the mean and coefficient of variation of cluster sizes. Our simulation studies with a finite number of clusters indicate that the predicted power by our method agrees well with the empirical power, when the parameters in the multivariate linear mixed model are estimated via the expectation-maximization algorithm. An application to a real CRT is presented to illustrate the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Generalizing trial evidence to target populations in non-nested designs: Applications to AIDS clinical trials

Comparative effectiveness evidence from randomized trials may not be directly generalizable to a target population of substantive interest when, as in most cases, trial participants are not randomly sampled from the target population. Motivated by the need to generalize evidence from two trials conducted in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG), we consider weighting, regression and doubly robust estimators to estimate the causal effects of HIV interventions in a specified population of people living with HIV in the USA. We focus on a non-nested trial design and discuss strategies for both point and variance estimation of the target population average treatment effect. Specifically in the generalizability context, we demonstrate both analytically and empirically that estimating the known propensity score in trials does not increase the variance for each of the weighting, regression and doubly robust estimators. We apply these methods to generalize the average treatment effects from two ACTG trials to specified target populations and operationalize key practical considerations. Finally, we report on a simulation study that investigates the finite-sample operating characteristics of the generalizability estimators and their sandwich variance estimators.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Are deep learning models superior for missing data imputation in large surveys? Evidence from an empirical comparison

Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular approach for dealing with missing data arising from non-response in sample surveys. Multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) is one of the most widely used MI algorithms for multivariate data, but it lacks theoretical foundation and is computationally intensive. Recently, missing data imputation methods based on deep learning models have been developed with encouraging results in small studies. However, there has been limited research on evaluating their performance in realistic settings compared to MICE, particularly in big surveys. We conduct extensive simulation studies based on a subsample of the American Community Survey to compare the repeated sampling properties of four machine learning based MI methods: MICE with classification trees, MICE with random forests, generative adversarial imputation networks, and multiple imputation using denoising autoencoders. We find the deep learning imputation methods are superior to MICE in terms of computational time. However, with the default choice of hyperparameters in the common software packages, MICE with classification trees consistently outperforms, often by a large margin, the deep learning imputation methods in terms of bias, mean squared error, and coverage under a range of realistic settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Effects of isoscalar- and isovector-scalar meson mixing on neutron star structure

Based on the accurately calibrated interaction FSUGold, we show that including isovector scalar $δ$ meson and its coupling to isoscalar scalar $σ$ meson in the relativistic mean field (RMF) model can soften the symmetry energy $E_{\rm{sym}}(n)$ at intermediate densities while stiffen the $E_{\rm{sym}}(n)$ at high densities. We find this new RMF model can be simultaneously compatible with (1) the constraints on the equation of state of symmetric nuclear matter at suprasaturation densities from flow data in heavy-ion collisions, (2) the neutron skin thickness of $^{208}$Pb from the PREX-II experiment, (3) the largest mass of neutron star (NS) reported so far from PSR J0740+6620, (4) the limit of $Λ_{1.4}\leq580$ for the dimensionless tidal deformability of the canonical 1.4$M_{\odot}$ NS from the gravitational wave signal GW170817, (5) the mass-radius relation of PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620 measured by NICER, and thus remove the tension between PREX-II and GW170817 observed in the conventional RMF model.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2022

Solving Nonsmooth Resource Allocation Problems with Feasibility Constraints through Novel Distributed Algorithms

The distributed non-smooth resource allocation problem over multi-agent networks is studied in this paper, where each agent is subject to globally coupled network resource constraints and local feasibility constraints described in terms of general convex sets. To solve such a problem, two classes of novel distributed continuous-time algorithms via differential inclusions and projection operators are proposed. Moreover, the convergence of the algorithms is analyzed by the Lyapunov functional theory and nonsmooth analysis. We illustrate that the first algorithm can globally converge to the exact optimum of the problem when the interaction digraph is weight-balanced and the local cost functions being strongly convex. Furthermore, the fully distributed implementation of the algorithm is studied over connected undirected graphs with strictly convex local cost functions. In addition, to improve the drawback of the first algorithm that requires initialization, we design the second algorithm which can be implemented without initialization to achieve global convergence to the optimal solution over connected undirected graphs with strongly convex cost functions. Finally, several numerical simulations verify the results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Novel Distributed Algorithms Design for Nonsmooth Resource Allocation on Weight-Balanced Digraphs

In this paper, the distributed resource allocation problem on strongly connected and weight-balanced digraphs is investigated, where the decisions of each agent are restricted to satisfy the coupled network resource constraints and heterogeneous general convex sets. Moreover, the local cost function can be non-smooth. In order to achieve the exact optimum of the nonsmooth resource allocation problem, a novel continuous-time distributed algorithm based on the gradient descent scheme and differentiated projection operators is proposed. With the help of the set-valued LaSalle invariance principle and nonsmooth analysis, it is demonstrated that the algorithm converges asymptotically to the global optimal allocation. Moreover, for the situation where local constraints are not involved and the cost functions are differentiable with Lipschitz gradients, the convergence of the algorithm to the exact optimal solution is exponentially fast. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is illustrated by simulation examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Power considerations for generalized estimating equations analyses of four-level cluster randomized trials

In this article, we develop methods for sample size and power calculations in four-level intervention studies when intervention assignment is carried out at any level, with a particular focus on cluster randomized trials (CRTs). CRTs involving four levels are becoming popular in health care research, where the effects are measured, for example, from evaluations (level 1) within participants (level 2) in divisions (level 3) that are nested in clusters (level 4). In such multi-level CRTs, we consider three types of intraclass correlations between different evaluations to account for such clustering: that of the same participant, that of different participants from the same division, and that of different participants from different divisions in the same cluster. Assuming arbitrary link and variance functions, with the proposed correlation structure as the true correlation structure, closed-form sample size formulas for randomization carried out at any level (including individually randomized trials within a four-level clustered structure) are derived based on the generalized estimating equations approach using the model-based variance and using the sandwich variance with an independence working correlation matrix. We demonstrate that empirical power corresponds well with that predicted by the proposed method for as few as 8 clusters, when data are analyzed using the matrix-adjusted estimating equations for the correlation parameters with a bias-corrected sandwich variance estimator, under both balanced and unbalanced designs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

A Causal Mediation Model for Longitudinal Mediators and Survival Outcomes with an Application to Animal Behavior

In animal behavior studies, a common goal is to investigate the causal pathways between an exposure and outcome, and a mediator that lies in between. Causal mediation analysis provides a principled approach for such studies. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing causal mediation models are not directly applicable to settings where the mediators are measured on irregular time grids. In this paper, we propose a causal mediation model that accommodates longitudinal mediators on arbitrary time grids and survival outcomes simultaneously. We take a functional data analysis perspective and view longitudinal mediators as realizations of underlying smooth stochastic processes. We define causal estimands of direct and indirect effects accordingly and provide corresponding identification assumptions. We employ a functional principal component analysis approach to estimate the mediator process, and propose a Cox hazard model for the survival outcome that flexibly adjusts the mediator process. We then derive a g-computation formula to express the causal estimands using the model coefficients. The proposed method is applied to a longitudinal data set from the Amboseli Baboon Research Project to investigate the causal relationships between early adversity, adult physiological stress responses, and survival among wild female baboons. We find that adversity experienced in early life has a significant direct effect on females' life expectancy and survival probability, but find little evidence that these effects were mediated by markers of the stress response in adulthood. We further developed a sensitivity analysis method to assess the impact of potential violation to the key assumption of sequential ignorability.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Constrained randomization and statistical inference for multi-arm parallel cluster randomized controlled trials

A practical limitation of cluster randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) is that the number of available clusters may be small, resulting in an increased risk of baseline imbalance under simple randomization. Constrained randomization overcomes this issue by restricting the allocation to a subset of randomization schemes where sufficient overall covariate balance across comparison arms is achieved. However, for multi-arm cRCTs, several design and analysis issues pertaining to constrained randomization have not been fully investigated. Motivated by an ongoing multi-arm cRCT, we elaborate the method of constrained randomization and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the statistical properties of model-based and randomization-based tests under both simple and constrained randomization designs in multi-arm cRCTs, with varying combinations of design and analysis-based covariate adjustment strategies. In particular, as randomization-based tests have not been extensively studied in multi-arm cRCTs, we additionally develop most-powerful randomization tests under the linear mixed model framework for our comparisons. Our results indicate that under constrained randomization, both model-based and randomization-based analyses could gain power while preserving nominal type I error rate, given proper analysis-based adjustment for the baseline covariates. Randomization-based analyses, however, are more robust against violations of distributional assumptions. The choice of balance metrics and candidate set sizes and their implications on the testing of the pairwise and global hypotheses are also discussed. Finally, we caution against the design and analysis of multi-arm cRCTs with an extremely small number of clusters, due to insufficient degrees of freedom and the tendency to obtain an overly restricted randomization space.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Propensity Score Weighting Analysis of Survival Outcomes Using Pseudo-observations

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes constructs pseudo-observations and allows standard methods such as propensity score weighting to proceed as if the outcomes are completely observed. For a general class of model-free causal estimands with survival outcomes on user-specified target populations, we develop corresponding propensity score weighting estimators based on the pseudo-observations and establish their asymptotic properties. In particular, utilizing the functional delta-method and the von Mises expansion, we derive a new closed-form variance of the weighting estimator that takes into account the uncertainty due to both pseudo-observation calculation and propensity score estimation. This allows valid and computationally efficient inference without resampling. We also prove the optimal efficiency property of the overlap weights within the class of balancing weights for survival outcomes. The proposed methods are applicable to both binary and multiple treatments. Extensive simulations are conducted to explore the operating characteristics of the proposed method versus other commonly used alternatives. We apply the proposed method to compare the causal effects of three popular treatment approaches for prostate cancer patients.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Subject Enveloped Deep Sample Fuzzy Ensemble Learning Algorithm of Parkinson's Speech Data

Parkinson disease (PD)'s speech recognition is an effective way for its diagnosis, which has become a hot and difficult research area in recent years. As we know, there are large corpuses (segments) within one subject. However, too large segments will increase the complexity of the classification model. Besides, the clinicians interested in finding diagnostic speech markers that reflect the pathology of the whole subject. Since the optimal relevant features of each speech sample segment are different, it is difficult to find the uniform diagnostic speech markers. Therefore, it is necessary to reconstruct the existing large segments within one subject into few segments even one segment within one subject, which can facilitate the extraction of relevant speech features to characterize diagnostic markers for the whole subject. To address this problem, an enveloped deep speech sample learning algorithm for Parkinson's subjects based on multilayer fuzzy c-mean (MlFCM) clustering and interlayer consistency preservation is proposed in this paper. The algorithm can be used to achieve intra-subject sample reconstruction for Parkinson's disease (PD) to obtain a small number of high-quality prototype sample segments. At the end of the paper, several representative PD speech datasets are selected and compared with the state-of-the-art related methods, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is effective signifcantly.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2021

QoE-driven Secure Video Transmission in Cloud-edge Collaborative Networks

Video transmission over the backhaul link in cloud-edge collaborative networks usually suffers security risks, which is ignored in most of the existing studies. The characteristics that video service can flexibly adjust the encoding rates and provide acceptable encoding qualities, make the security requirements more possible to be satisfied but tightly coupled with video encoding by introducing more restrictions on edge caching. In this paper, by considering the interaction between video encoding and edge caching, we investigate the quality of experience (QoE)-driven cross-layer optimization of secure video transmission over the wireless backhaul link in cloud-edge collaborative networks. First, we develop a secure transmission model based on video encoding and edge caching. By employing this model as the security constraint, then we formulate a QoE-driven joint optimization problem subject to limited available caching capacity. To solve the optimization problem, we propose two algorithms: a near-optimal iterative algorithm (EC-VE) and a greedy algorithm with low computational complexity (Greedy EC-VE). Simulation results show that our proposed EC-VE can greatly improve user QoE within security constraints, and the proposed Greedy EC-VE can obtain the tradeoff between QoE and computational complexity.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2021

Envelope Imbalance Learning Algorithm based on Multilayer Fuzzy C-means Clustering and Minimum Interlayer discrepancy

Imbalanced learning is important and challenging since the problem of the classification of imbalanced datasets is prevalent in machine learning and data mining fields. Sampling approaches are proposed to address this issue, and cluster-based oversampling methods have shown great potential as they aim to simultaneously tackle between-class and within-class imbalance issues. However, all existing clustering methods are based on a one-time approach. Due to the lack of a priori knowledge, improper setting of the number of clusters often exists, which leads to poor clustering performance. Besides, the existing methods are likely to generate noisy instances. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a deep instance envelope network-based imbalanced learning algorithm with the multilayer fuzzy c-means (MlFCM) and a minimum interlayer discrepancy mechanism based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MIDMD). This algorithm can guarantee high quality balanced instances using a deep instance envelope network in the absence of prior knowledge. In the experimental section, thirty-three popular public datasets are used for verification, and over ten representative algorithms are used for comparison. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms other popular methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Clarifying Selection Bias in Cluster Randomized Trials: Estimands and Estimation

In cluster randomized trials, patients are typically recruited after clusters are randomized, and the recruiters and patients may not be blinded to the assignment. This often leads to differential recruitment and consequently systematic differences in baseline characteristics of the recruited patients between intervention and control arms, inducing post-randomization selection bias. We rigorously define causal estimands in the presence of selection bias. We elucidate the conditions under which standard covariate adjustment methods can validly estimate these estimands. We further discuss the additional data and assumptions necessary for estimating causal effects when such conditions are not met. Adopting the principal stratification framework in causal inference, we clarify there are two average treatment effect (ATE) estimands in cluster randomized trials: one for the overall population and one for the recruited population. We derive the analytical formula of the two estimands in terms of principal-stratum-specific causal effects. Using simulation studies, we assess the empirical performance of the multivariable regression adjustment method under different data generating processes leading to selection bias. When treatment effects are heterogeneous across principal strata, the ATE on the overall population generally differs from the ATE on the recruited population. An intention-to-treat analysis of the recruited sample leads to biased estimates of both ATEs. In the presence of post-randomization selection and without additional data on the non-recruited subjects, the ATE on the recruited population is estimable only when the treatment effects are homogenous between principal strata, and the ATE on the overall population is generally not estimable. The extent to which covariate adjustment can remove selection bias depends on the degree of effect heterogeneity across principal strata.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Estimating the natural indirect effect and the mediation proportion via the product method

The natural indirect effect (NIE) and mediation proportion (MP) are two measures of primary interest in mediation analysis. The standard approach for estimating NIE and MP is through the product method, which involves a model for the outcome conditional on the mediator and exposure and another model describing the exposure-mediator relationship. The purpose of this article is to comprehensively develop and investigate the finite-sample performance of NIE and MP estimators via the product method. With four common data types, we propose closed-form interval estimators via the theory of estimating equations and multivariate delta method, and evaluate its empirical performance relative to the bootstrap approach. In addition, we have observed that the rare outcome assumption is frequently invoked to approximate the NIE and MP with a binary outcome, although this approximation may lead to non-negligible bias when the outcome is common. We therefore introduce the exact expressions for NIE and MP with a binary outcome without the rare outcome assumption and compare its performance with the approximate estimators. Based upon these theoretical developments and empirical studies, we offer several practical recommendations to inform practice. An R package mediateP is developed to implement the methods for point and variance estimation discussed in this paper.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Hölder Bounds for Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Reasoning

We examine interval estimation of the effect of a treatment T on an outcome Y given the existence of an unobserved confounder U. Using Hölder's inequality, we derive a set of bounds on the confounding bias |E[Y|T=t]-E[Y|do(T=t)]| based on the degree of unmeasured confounding (i.e., the strength of the connection U->T, and the strength of U->Y). These bounds are tight either when U is independent of T or when U is independent of Y given T (when there is no unobserved confounding). We focus on a special case of this bound depending on the total variation distance between the distributions p(U) and p(U|T=t), as well as the maximum (over all possible values of U) deviation of the conditional expected outcome E[Y|U=u,T=t] from the average expected outcome E[Y|T=t]. We discuss possible calibration strategies for this bound to get interval estimates for treatment effects, and experimentally validate the bound using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

cs.LG↗