arXiv subjects

Fan Xia

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Xia.

39 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Analysis of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials in the presence of a time-varying treatment effect

Stepped wedge cluster randomized controlled trials are typically analyzed using models that assume the full effect of the treatment is achieved instantaneously. We provide an analytical framework for scenarios in which the treatment effect varies as a function of exposure time (time since the start of treatment) and define the "effect curve" as the magnitude of the treatment effect on the linear predictor scale as a function of exposure time. The "time-averaged treatment effect", (TATE) and "long-term treatment effect" (LTE) are summaries of this curve. We analytically derive the expectation of the estimator resulting from a model that assumes an immediate treatment effect and show that it can be expressed as a weighted sum of the time-specific treatment effects corresponding to the observed exposure times. Surprisingly, although the weights sum to one, some of the weights can be negative. This implies that the estimator may be severely misleading and can even converge to a value of the opposite sign of the true TATE or LTE. We describe several models that can be used to simultaneously estimate the entire effect curve, the TATE, and the LTE, some of which make assumptions about the shape of the effect curve. We evaluate these models in a simulation study to examine the operating characteristics of the resulting estimators and apply them to two real datasets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

PG$^2$Net: Personalized and Group Preferences Guided Network for Next Place Prediction

Predicting the next place to visit is a key in human mobility behavior modeling, which plays a significant role in various fields, such as epidemic control, urban planning, traffic management, and travel recommendation. To achieve this, one typical solution is designing modules based on RNN to capture their preferences to various locations. Although these RNN-based methods can effectively learn individual's hidden personalized preferences to her visited places, the interactions among users can only be weakly learned through the representations of locations. Targeting this, we propose an end-to-end framework named personalized and group preference guided network (PG$^2$Net), considering the users' preferences to various places at both individual and collective levels. Specifically, PG$^2$Net concatenates Bi-LSTM and attention mechanism to capture each user's long-term mobility tendency. To learn population's group preferences, we utilize spatial and temporal information of the visitations to construct a spatio-temporal dependency module. We adopt a graph embedding method to map users' trajectory into a hidden space, capturing their sequential relation. In addition, we devise an auxiliary loss to learn the vectorial representation of her next location. Experiment results on two Foursquare check-in datasets and one mobile phone dataset indicate the advantages of our model compared to the state-of-the-art baselines. Source codes are available at https://github.com/urbanmobility/PG2Net.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Defining and Estimating Subgroup Mediation Effects with Semi-Competing Risks Data

In many medical studies, an ultimate failure event such as death is likely to be affected by the occurrence and timing of other intermediate clinical events. Both event times are subject to censoring by loss-to-follow-up but the nonterminal event may further be censored by the occurrence of the primary outcome, but not vice versa. To study the effect of an intervention on both events, the intermediate event may be viewed as a mediator, but conventional definition of direct and indirect effects is not applicable due to semi-competing risks data structure. We define three principal strata based on whether the potential intermediate event occurs before the potential failure event, which allow proper definition of direct and indirect effects in one stratum whereas total effects are defined for all strata. We discuss the identification conditions for stratum-specific effects, and proposed a semiparametric estimator based on a multivariate logistic stratum membership model and within-stratum proportional hazards models for the event times. By treating the unobserved stratum membership as a latent variable, we propose an EM algorithm for computation. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimators by the modern empirical process theory and examine the performance of the estimators in numerical studies.

stat.ME↗