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Fan Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Fan Zhou.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

A Large-Scale Empirical Study on Semantic Versioning in Golang Ecosystem

Third-party libraries (TPLs) have become an essential component of software, accelerating development and reducing maintenance costs. However, breaking changes often occur during the upgrades of TPLs and prevent client programs from moving forward. Semantic versioning (SemVer) has been applied to standardize the versions of releases according to compatibility, but not all releases follow SemVer compliance. Lots of work focuses on SemVer compliance in ecosystems such as Java and JavaScript beyond Golang (Go for short). Due to the lack of tools to detect breaking changes and dataset for Go, developers of TPLs do not know if breaking changes occur and affect client programs, and developers of client programs may hesitate to upgrade dependencies in terms of breaking changes. To bridge this gap, we conduct the first large-scale empirical study in the Go ecosystem to study SemVer compliance in terms of breaking changes and their impact. In detail, we purpose GoSVI (Go Semantic Versioning Insight) to detect breaking changes and analyze their impact by resolving identifiers in client programs and comparing their types with breaking changes. Moreover, we collect the first large-scale Go dataset with a dependency graph from GitHub, including 124K TPLs and 532K client programs. Based on the dataset, our results show that 86.3% of library upgrades follow SemVer compliance and 28.6% of no-major upgrades introduce breaking changes. Furthermore, the tendency to comply with SemVer has improved over time from 63.7% in 2018/09 to 92.2% in 2023/03. Finally, we find 33.3% of downstream client programs may be affected by breaking changes. These findings provide developers and users of TPLs with valuable insights to help make decisions related to SemVer.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2023

Variance Control for Distributional Reinforcement Learning

Although distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) has been widely examined in the past few years, very few studies investigate the validity of the obtained Q-function estimator in the distributional setting. To fully understand how the approximation errors of the Q-function affect the whole training process, we do some error analysis and theoretically show how to reduce both the bias and the variance of the error terms. With this new understanding, we construct a new estimator \emph{Quantiled Expansion Mean} (QEM) and introduce a new DRL algorithm (QEMRL) from the statistical perspective. We extensively evaluate our QEMRL algorithm on a variety of Atari and Mujoco benchmark tasks and demonstrate that QEMRL achieves significant improvement over baseline algorithms in terms of sample efficiency and convergence performance.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Directional diffusion models for graph representation learning

In recent years, diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in various domains of artificial intelligence, such as image synthesis, super-resolution, and 3D molecule generation. However, the application of diffusion models in graph learning has received relatively little attention. In this paper, we address this gap by investigating the use of diffusion models for unsupervised graph representation learning. We begin by identifying the anisotropic structures of graphs and a crucial limitation of the vanilla forward diffusion process in learning anisotropic structures. This process relies on continuously adding an isotropic Gaussian noise to the data, which may convert the anisotropic signals to noise too quickly. This rapid conversion hampers the training of denoising neural networks and impedes the acquisition of semantically meaningful representations in the reverse process. To address this challenge, we propose a new class of models called {\it directional diffusion models}. These models incorporate data-dependent, anisotropic, and directional noises in the forward diffusion process. To assess the efficacy of our proposed models, we conduct extensive experiments on 12 publicly available datasets, focusing on two distinct graph representation learning tasks. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our models over state-of-the-art baselines, indicating their effectiveness in capturing meaningful graph representations. Our studies not only provide valuable insights into the forward process of diffusion models but also highlight the wide-ranging potential of these models for various graph-related tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Multi-modal Representation Learning for Social Post Location Inference

Inferring geographic locations via social posts is essential for many practical location-based applications such as product marketing, point-of-interest recommendation, and infector tracking for COVID-19. Unlike image-based location retrieval or social-post text embedding-based location inference, the combined effect of multi-modal information (i.e., post images, text, and hashtags) for social post positioning receives less attention. In this work, we collect real datasets of social posts with images, texts, and hashtags from Instagram and propose a novel Multi-modal Representation Learning Framework (MRLF) capable of fusing different modalities of social posts for location inference. MRLF integrates a multi-head attention mechanism to enhance location-salient information extraction while significantly improving location inference compared with single domain-based methods. To overcome the noisy user-generated textual content, we introduce a novel attention-based character-aware module that considers the relative dependencies between characters of social post texts and hashtags for flexible multi-model information fusion. The experimental results show that MRLF can make accurate location predictions and open a new door to understanding the multi-modal data of social posts for online inference tasks.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

From Zero to Hero: Examining the Power of Symbolic Tasks in Instruction Tuning

Fine-tuning language models on tasks with instructions has demonstrated potential in facilitating zero-shot generalization to unseen tasks. In this paper, we introduce a straightforward yet effective method for enhancing instruction tuning by employing symbolic tasks. Compared to crowdsourced human tasks or model-generated tasks, symbolic tasks present a unique advantage as they can be easily generated in vast quantities, theoretically providing an infinite supply of high-quality training instances. To explore the potential of symbolic tasks, we carry out an extensive case study on the representative symbolic task of SQL execution. Empirical results on various benchmarks validate that the integration of SQL execution leads to significant improvements in zero-shot scenarios, particularly in table reasoning. Notably, our 3B model surpasses both the 175B GPT-3 and ChatGPT in zero-shot table reasoning across four benchmarks. Furthermore, experimental results on BBH (27 tasks) and MMLU (57 tasks) reveal that language models can be enhanced through symbolic tasks without compromising their generality. We hope that our paper serves as a catalyst, inspiring increased efforts to incorporate symbolic tasks in instruction tuning.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2023

Urban Regional Function Guided Traffic Flow Prediction

The prediction of traffic flow is a challenging yet crucial problem in spatial-temporal analysis, which has recently gained increasing interest. In addition to spatial-temporal correlations, the functionality of urban areas also plays a crucial role in traffic flow prediction. However, the exploration of regional functional attributes mainly focuses on adding additional topological structures, ignoring the influence of functional attributes on regional traffic patterns. Different from the existing works, we propose a novel module named POI-MetaBlock, which utilizes the functionality of each region (represented by Point of Interest distribution) as metadata to further mine different traffic characteristics in areas with different functions. Specifically, the proposed POI-MetaBlock employs a self-attention architecture and incorporates POI and time information to generate dynamic attention parameters for each region, which enables the model to fit different traffic patterns of various areas at different times. Furthermore, our lightweight POI-MetaBlock can be easily integrated into conventional traffic flow prediction models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our module significantly improves the performance of traffic flow prediction and outperforms state-of-the-art methods that use metadata.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2023

Foresee What You Will Learn: Data Augmentation for Domain Generalization in Non-stationary Environment

Existing domain generalization aims to learn a generalizable model to perform well even on unseen domains. For many real-world machine learning applications, the data distribution often shifts gradually along domain indices. For example, a self-driving car with a vision system drives from dawn to dusk, with the sky darkening gradually. Therefore, the system must be able to adapt to changes in ambient illumination and continue to drive safely on the road. In this paper, we formulate such problems as Evolving Domain Generalization, where a model aims to generalize well on a target domain by discovering and leveraging the evolving pattern of the environment. We then propose Directional Domain Augmentation (DDA), which simulates the unseen target features by mapping source data as augmentations through a domain transformer. Specifically, we formulate DDA as a bi-level optimization problem and solve it through a novel meta-learning approach in the representation space. We evaluate the proposed method on both synthetic datasets and realworld datasets, and empirical results show that our approach can outperform other existing methods.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2023

SLOTH: Structured Learning and Task-based Optimization for Time Series Forecasting on Hierarchies

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS) forecasting includes two sub-tasks, i.e., forecasting and reconciliation. In the previous works, hierarchical information is only integrated in the reconciliation step to maintain coherency, but not in forecasting step for accuracy improvement. In this paper, we propose two novel tree-based feature integration mechanisms, i.e., top-down convolution and bottom-up attention to leverage the information of the hierarchical structure to improve the forecasting performance. Moreover, unlike most previous reconciliation methods which either rely on strong assumptions or focus on coherent constraints only,we utilize deep neural optimization networks, which not only achieve coherency without any assumptions, but also allow more flexible and realistic constraints to achieve task-based targets, e.g., lower under-estimation penalty and meaningful decision-making loss to facilitate the subsequent downstream tasks. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our tree-based feature integration mechanism achieves superior performances on hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods, and our neural optimization networks can be applied to real-world tasks effectively without any additional effort under coherence and task-based constraints

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Gap Minimization for Knowledge Sharing and Transfer

Learning from multiple related tasks by knowledge sharing and transfer has become increasingly relevant over the last two decades. In order to successfully transfer information from one task to another, it is critical to understand the similarities and differences between the domains. In this paper, we introduce the notion of \emph{performance gap}, an intuitive and novel measure of the distance between learning tasks. Unlike existing measures which are used as tools to bound the difference of expected risks between tasks (e.g., $\mathcal{H}$-divergence or discrepancy distance), we theoretically show that the performance gap can be viewed as a data- and algorithm-dependent regularizer, which controls the model complexity and leads to finer guarantees. More importantly, it also provides new insights and motivates a novel principle for designing strategies for knowledge sharing and transfer: gap minimization. We instantiate this principle with two algorithms: 1. gapBoost, a novel and principled boosting algorithm that explicitly minimizes the performance gap between source and target domains for transfer learning; and 2. gapMTNN, a representation learning algorithm that reformulates gap minimization as semantic conditional matching for multitask learning. Our extensive evaluation on both transfer learning and multitask learning benchmark data sets shows that our methods outperform existing baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Value Enhancement of Reinforcement Learning via Efficient and Robust Trust Region Optimization

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful machine learning technique that enables an intelligent agent to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the cumulative rewards in sequential decision making. Most of methods in the existing literature are developed in \textit{online} settings where the data are easy to collect or simulate. Motivated by high stake domains such as mobile health studies with limited and pre-collected data, in this paper, we study \textit{offline} reinforcement learning methods. To efficiently use these datasets for policy optimization, we propose a novel value enhancement method to improve the performance of a given initial policy computed by existing state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Specifically, when the initial policy is not consistent, our method will output a policy whose value is no worse and often better than that of the initial policy. When the initial policy is consistent, under some mild conditions, our method will yield a policy whose value converges to the optimal one at a faster rate than the initial policy, achieving the desired ``value enhancement" property. The proposed method is generally applicable to any parametrized policy that belongs to certain pre-specified function class (e.g., deep neural networks). Extensive numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2022

Predicting Human Mobility via Self-supervised Disentanglement Learning

Deep neural networks have recently achieved considerable improvements in learning human behavioral patterns and individual preferences from massive spatial-temporal trajectories data. However, most of the existing research concentrates on fusing different semantics underlying sequential trajectories for mobility pattern learning which, in turn, yields a narrow perspective on comprehending human intrinsic motions. In addition, the inherent sparsity and under-explored heterogeneous collaborative items pertaining to human check-ins hinder the potential exploitation of human diverse periodic regularities as well as common interests. Motivated by recent advances in disentanglement learning, in this study we propose a novel disentangled solution called SSDL for tackling the next POI prediction problem. SSDL primarily seeks to disentangle the potential time-invariant and time-varying factors into different latent spaces from massive trajectories data, providing an interpretable view to understand the intricate semantics underlying human diverse mobility representations. To address the data sparsity issue, we present two realistic trajectory augmentation approaches to enhance the understanding of both the human intrinsic periodicity and constantly-changing intents. In addition, we devise a POI-centric graph structure to explore heterogeneous collaborative signals underlying historical check-ins. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed SSDL significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches -- for example, it yields up to 8.57% improvements on ACC@1.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Incorporating Interactive Facts for Stock Selection via Neural Recursive ODEs

Stock selection attempts to rank a list of stocks for optimizing investment decision making, aiming at minimizing investment risks while maximizing profit returns. Recently, researchers have developed various (recurrent) neural network-based methods to tackle this problem. Without exceptions, they primarily leverage historical market volatility to enhance the selection performance. However, these approaches greatly rely on discrete sampled market observations, which either fail to consider the uncertainty of stock fluctuations or predict continuous stock dynamics in the future. Besides, some studies have considered the explicit stock interdependence derived from multiple domains (e.g., industry and shareholder). Nevertheless, the implicit cross-dependencies among different domains are under-explored. To address such limitations, we present a novel stock selection solution -- StockODE, a latent variable model with Gaussian prior. Specifically, we devise a Movement Trend Correlation module to expose the time-varying relationships regarding stock movements. We design Neural Recursive Ordinary Differential Equation Networks (NRODEs) to capture the temporal evolution of stock volatility in a continuous dynamic manner. Moreover, we build a hierarchical hypergraph to incorporate the domain-aware dependencies among the stocks. Experiments conducted on two real-world stock market datasets demonstrate that StockODE significantly outperforms several baselines, such as up to 18.57% average improvement regarding Sharpe Ratio.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2022

Reflection of Thought: Inversely Eliciting Numerical Reasoning in Language Models via Solving Linear Systems

Numerical reasoning over natural language has been a long-standing goal for the research community. However, cutting-edge language models have proven difficult to reliably generalize to a broad range of numbers, although they have shown proficiency in reasoning over common and simple numbers. In this paper, we propose a novel method to elicit and exploit the numerical reasoning knowledge hidden in pre-trained language models using simple anchor numbers. Concretely, we first leverage simple numbers as anchors to probe the implicitly inferred arithmetic expressions from language models, and then explicitly apply the expressions on complex numbers to get corresponding answers. To inversely elicit arithmetic expressions, we transform and formulate the task as an analytically solvable linear system. Experimental results on several numerical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves numerical reasoning capabilities of existing LMs. More importantly, our approach is training-free and simply works in the inference phase, making it highly portable and achieving consistent performance benefits across a variety of language models (GPT-3, T5, BART, etc) in all zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2022

A product-CLT and its application in invariance principle of random projection

Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma states random projections can be used as a topology preserving embedding technique for fixed vectors. In this paper, we try to understand how random projections affect probabilistic properties of random vectors. In particular we prove the distribution of inner product of two independent random vectors $X, Z \in {R}^n$ is preserved by random projection $S:{R}^n \to {R}^m$. More precisely, \[ \sup_t \left| \text{P}(\frac{1}{C_{m,n}} X^TS^TSZ <t) - \text{P}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}} X^TZ<t) \right| \le O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}+ \frac{1}{\sqrt{m}} \right) \] This is achieved by proving a general central limit theorem (product-CLT) for $\sum_{k=1}^{n} X_k Y_k$, where $\{X_k\}$ is a martingale difference sequence, and $\{Y_k\}$ has dependency within the sequence. We also obtain the rate of convergence in the spirit of Berry-Esseen theorem.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

Quantification and Analysis of Layer-wise and Pixel-wise Information Discarding

This paper presents a method to explain how the information of each input variable is gradually discarded during the forward propagation in a deep neural network (DNN), which provides new perspectives to explain DNNs. We define two types of entropy-based metrics, i.e. (1) the discarding of pixel-wise information used in the forward propagation, and (2) the uncertainty of the input reconstruction, to measure input information contained by a specific layer from two perspectives. Unlike previous attribution metrics, the proposed metrics ensure the fairness of comparisons between different layers of different DNNs. We can use these metrics to analyze the efficiency of information processing in DNNs, which exhibits strong connections to the performance of DNNs. We analyze information discarding in a pixel-wise manner, which is different from the information bottleneck theory measuring feature information w.r.t. the sample distribution. Experiments have shown the effectiveness of our metrics in analyzing classic DNNs and explaining existing deep-learning techniques.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

Evolving Domain Generalization

Domain generalization aims to learn a predictive model from multiple different but related source tasks that can generalize well to a target task without the need of accessing any target data. Existing domain generalization methods ignore the relationship between tasks, implicitly assuming that all the tasks are sampled from a stationary environment. Therefore, they can fail when deployed in an evolving environment. To this end, we formulate and study the \emph{evolving domain generalization} (EDG) scenario, which exploits not only the source data but also their evolving pattern to generate a model for the unseen task. Our theoretical result reveals the benefits of modeling the relation between two consecutive tasks by learning a globally consistent directional mapping function. In practice, our analysis also suggests solving the DDG problem in a meta-learning manner, which leads to \emph{directional prototypical network}, the first method for the DDG problem. Empirical evaluation of both synthetic and real-world data sets validates the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

TaCube: Pre-computing Data Cubes for Answering Numerical-Reasoning Questions over Tabular Data

Existing auto-regressive pre-trained language models (PLMs) like T5 and BART, have been well applied to table question answering by UNIFIEDSKG and TAPEX, respectively, and demonstrated state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. However, auto-regressive PLMs are challenged by recent emerging numerical reasoning datasets, such as TAT-QA, due to the error-prone implicit calculation. In this paper, we present TaCube, to pre-compute aggregation/arithmetic results for the table in advance, so that they are handy and readily available for PLMs to answer numerical reasoning questions. TaCube systematically and comprehensively covers a collection of computational operations over table segments. By simply concatenating TaCube to the input sequence of PLMs, it shows significant experimental effectiveness. TaCube promotes the F1 score from 49.6% to 66.2% on TAT-QA and achieves new state-of-the-art results on WikiTQ (59.6% denotation accuracy). TaCube's improvements on numerical reasoning cases are even more notable: on TAT-QA, TaCube promotes the exact match accuracy of BART-large by 39.6% on sum, 52.5% on average, 36.6% on substraction, and 22.2% on division. We believe that TaCube is a general and portable pre-computation solution that can be potentially integrated to various numerical reasoning frameworks

cs.IR↗