Too cheap to meter? A stochastic analysis of projected future fusion costs
In recent years, technological developments and activities by private actors have led a reemerged discussion of the potential of nuclear fusion to meet growing global energy demands. So far, however, fusion technologies remain at comparatively low development levels and their deployment in commercial power plants is probably still decades away. Regardless, over the last decades, many cost studies have been conducted that estimate the future cost of potential fusion power plants. But to date, there is no systematic and harmonized assessment of these projections. Therefore, this study conducts a stochastic analysis of future fusion power plant costs for three distint technology lines, magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and magneto-inertial confinement fusion, including cost assessments of different technology maturity levels. These levels are further assessed to determine projected learning rates for future fusion costs. For mature technologies, mean LCOE are determined at 114.6, 110.3, and 143.9 USD per MWh for MCF, ICF, and MIF devices, respectively. This implies learning rates of more than 30%. We find that these projected values are rather optimistic when compared to other literature or comparable technologies like fission. We therefore urge policymakers to caution when potential fusion developers refer to the potential economic competitiveness of fusion power plants.